First Tractor Co Ltd (0038) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$7.5B (≈ $958M) · ISIN CNE100000320

What is First Tractor Co Ltd really worth?

FT First Tractor Co Ltd 0038 · HK

PriceHK$9.60

Fair ValueHK$41.28

Upside+330.0%

Quality57/100

A solid business, trading 77% below our fair value of HK$41.28.

As of Aug 29, 2026, the fair value of First Tractor Co Ltd is HK$41.28 per share against a price of HK$9.60, so the fair value sits 330% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

✓Ranks above peers (12/14)

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +7.4 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 7.7% net margin

!Narrow moat 41/100

!Weak on future: 13 out of 100

For context

·2.77% dividend yield

Evidence: High Range HK$29.77 – HK$55.12

Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 29, 2026, revised from HK$41.20 to HK$41.28 (+0.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +10.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$29.77). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
A fairly wide model range (HK$29.77 to HK$55.12) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.22 – HK$10.12 · fair‑value band HK$29.77 – HK$55.12 · the HK$9.60 price screens below the HK$41.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

First Tractor Co Ltd (0038) currently trades at HK$9.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$41.28, implying the stock looks roughly 76.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$38.31 per share, and 24 of the 25 models we run sit above the HK$9.60 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$13.04, and 1 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, First Tractor Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$10.9B at a net margin of 7.7%. Revenue grew 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.4%. Net debt stands at HK$1.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$29.77 (bear case) to HK$55.12 (bull case); at HK$9.60, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 330%, 0038 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.3747 per share. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

FCF DCF best evidence HK$25.45 HK$34.32 HK$46.40 79

Growth DCF HK$26.01 HK$34.23 HK$44.94 77

Owner Earnings HK$28.32 HK$38.37 HK$52.05 75

All 25 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF best evidence HK$25.45 HK$34.32 HK$46.40 79

Owner Earnings HK$28.32 HK$38.37 HK$52.05 75

5Y Revenue Exit HK$24.38 HK$34.68 HK$47.29 71

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$28.82 HK$42.54 HK$57.81 73

5Y P/E Exit HK$29.71 HK$44.12 HK$58.43 69

10Y Revenue Exit HK$24.01 HK$33.12 HK$44.28 65

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$27.30 HK$38.31 HK$51.75 67

10Y P/E Exit HK$27.84 HK$39.35 HK$52.19 62

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$14.09 HK$32.49 HK$41.71 63

PEG = 1.0 HK$5.47 HK$7.81 HK$10.15 55

EPV HK$22.95 HK$25.97 HK$28.58 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$9.01 HK$14.72 HK$21.10 66

DDM Multi-Stage HK$9.01 HK$13.04 HK$17.34 65

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$32.63 HK$43.50 HK$54.38 63

P/S Multiple HK$26.41 HK$35.22 HK$44.02 58

P/B Multiple HK$26.41 HK$35.22 HK$44.02 55

EV/EBIT HK$33.65 HK$43.60 HK$53.56 66

EV/EBITDA HK$34.77 HK$45.10 HK$55.43 67

EV/Revenue HK$25.10 HK$34.23 HK$43.37 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$9.78 HK$13.10 HK$19.55 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$26.01 HK$34.23 HK$44.94 77

Rev-Margin DCF HK$24.38 HK$34.94 HK$46.22 71

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$17.25 HK$19.23 HK$28.81 73

ROIC Compounder HK$23.38 HK$27.57 HK$32.19 70

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$24.56 HK$35.09 HK$45.62 65

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$38.31) versus Dividend Discount (HK$13.04). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 8.1 as of Jul 1, 2026

P/S ratio 0.60 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$0.8153 price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.1

Dividend yield 2.8% payout 32.6%

Net margin 7.5% FY2025

Return on equity 10.4% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7% avg 5y

Operating margin 12.8% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$10.9B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +2.5% 3y avg −4.9%

EPS growth (YoY) +6.2%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$840M FY2025

Net debt HK$1.1B FY2025 · ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60

Profitability 39

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 26

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 53

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 69

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 77

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 43

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 60

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 77

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 82

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Full company description

First Tractor Company Limited, engages in the production, manufacture, and sale of agricultural machinery and power machinery. It offers medium and large-sized wheeled and crawler tractors; transmission series tractors; power shuttle series tractors; shift series tractors; autonomous tractors; and hybrid power tractors. The company also provides off-road diesel engines, such as tractors and harvesters, engineering machinery, ships, generator sets, and others; and component products, such as castings and forgings, gear transmission components, covers, offroad axles, transmissions, and cabs/coverings of agricultural machinery products. First Tractor Company Limited was founded in 1955 and is based in Luoyang, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

First Tractor Co Ltd reported revenue of 10.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 9.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was 812M CNY in FY2025, compounding +17.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100

Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$10.8B

Latest YoY

−9.1%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

−4.9%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+7.4%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+7.0%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

+23.3% · in HKD

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share+20.5%

Dividend yield2.8%

Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 20.5% vs 10Y 15.7%, picking up

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3.9% (2020) → 8.5% (2025) · rising

Worst earnings drop769% (2018) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in HKD

⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

Revenue +3.8%/yr

FY21 9.3B CNY

FY22 12.6B CNY

FY23 11.5B CNY

FY24 11.9B CNY

FY25 10.8B CNY

Net income +17.0%/yr

FY21 433M CNY

FY22 681M CNY

FY23 997M CNY

FY24 922M CNY

FY25 812M CNY

Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2025) +19.3 % p.a.

Revenue per share −0.7 %

of which total revenue +0.8 % · buybacks/dilution −1.4 %

EBIT margin +13.0 %

Tax rate +3.5 %

Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.7 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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First Tractor Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$41.28 +77%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "First Tractor Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0038.HK

Peer Group

Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 150 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 57 · Above median

Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median

Return on assets 2% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 8% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%

Revenue growth 3% · Below median

Dividend yield (TTM) 2.8% · Above median

Debt / equity 0.06× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/B 0.98× · Cheaper than median

P/S (TTM) 0.69× · Cheaper than median

P/FCF 1.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

EV/EBITDA 6.7× · Cheaper than median

PEG 0.40× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE0 · sector 12

FUTURE13 · sector 29

PAST42 · sector 31

HEALTH97 · sector 93

DIVIDEND55 · sector 39

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).

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Caterpillar Inc CAT	$800.25	$307.83	−62%
Deere & Company DE	$693.53	$182.29	−74%
AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA	kr 351.40	kr 288.08	−18%
PACCAR Inc PCAR	$122.45	$94.80	−23%
Daimler Truck Holding DTG	€45.73	€47.70	+4%
Epiroc AB EPIA	kr 272.80	kr 144.14	−47%
Exor N.V EXO	€72.10	€123.44	+71%
Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031	¥19.06	¥20.84	+9%
Traton SE 8TRA	€37.92	€52.60	+39%
Metso Oyj METSO	€16.75	€10.73	−36%

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Frequently asked questions

Is First Tractor Co Ltd (0038) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$41.28 versus a price of HK$9.60, about +330% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 0038?

Our model-based fair value for First Tractor Co Ltd is HK$41.28 (as of Aug 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$9.60.

What is the quality score of 0038?

First Tractor Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for First Tractor Co Ltd (0038)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$41.28 (as of Aug 29, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$29.77, optimistic scenario HK$55.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the First Tractor Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$41.28, about +330% upside versus a price of HK$9.60 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$29.77, optimistic scenario HK$55.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of First Tractor Co Ltd (0038)?

First Tractor Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$10.9B (latest available figure, as of Aug 29, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 0038?

The net profit margin of First Tractor Co Ltd is about 7.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does First Tractor Co Ltd pay a dividend?

First Tractor Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.77% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 29, 2026).

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