Samhwa Crown (004450) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Samhwa Crown KRW 38,809, price KRW 28,500, upside +36.2%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 24,400 KRW – 49,193 KRW · fair‑value band 28,962 KRW – 47,561 KRW · the 28,500 KRW price screens below the 38,809 KRW fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Samhwa Crown & Closure Co., Ltd manufactures and sells bottle caps used in the packaging of beverages, alcohol, and food in South Korea and internationally. It offers crown, roll on pilfer proof, plastic, white, press on twist off, and injection caps. The company also provides metal printing services for caps.
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Samhwa Crown & Closure Co., Ltd manufactures and sells bottle caps used in the packaging of beverages, alcohol, and food in South Korea and internationally. It offers crown, roll on pilfer proof, plastic, white, press on twist off, and injection caps. The company also provides metal printing services for caps. The company was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Seoul, South Korea.
Stock analysis
Samhwa Crown (004450) currently trades at 28,500 KRW, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 38,809 KRW, implying the stock looks roughly 26.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 49,652 KRW per share, and 20 of the 25 models we run sit above the 28,500 KRW price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 14,576 KRW, and 5 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 28,962 KRW (bear) to 47,561 KRW (bull), the price of 28,500 KRW sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Samhwa Crown reported revenue of 163B KRW in FY2025 versus 150B KRW in FY2021, a compound +2.1%/yr. Reported net income was 4.3B KRW in FY2025, compounding +31.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 51.2B KRW (≈ $35.9M) · P/S ratio 0.44 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 2.6% · Return on equity 7.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% · Operating margin 4.5% · Revenue (TTM) 110B KRW.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 36%, 004450 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 28,962 KRWFair Value 38,809 KRWBull 47,561 KRW
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.53/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.3% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in KRW ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in KRW: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+28.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 4%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Korea: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside+36% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Samhwa Crown Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/004450
Frequently asked questions
Is Samhwa Crown (004450) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 38,809 KRW versus a price of 28,500 KRW, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 004450?
Our model-based fair value for Samhwa Crown is 38,809 KRW (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 28,500 KRW.
What is the quality score of 004450?
Samhwa Crown has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Samhwa Crown (004450)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 38,809 KRW (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 28,962 KRW, optimistic scenario 47,561 KRW. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Samhwa Crown stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 38,809 KRW, about +36% upside versus a price of 28,500 KRW (undervalued). Cautious scenario 28,962 KRW, optimistic scenario 47,561 KRW. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Samhwa Crown (004450)?
Samhwa Crown reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 110B KRW (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Samhwa Crown pay a dividend?
Samhwa Crown currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.21% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Samhwa Crown (004450)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Samhwa Crown would have to grow free cash flow by -2.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 004450 use?
Our models discount Samhwa Crown at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for South Korea. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Samhwa Crown that is -2.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Samhwa Crown (004450) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Samhwa Crown grew +3.0 % a year. The price currently implies -2.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Samhwa Crown (004450) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Samhwa Crown (-2.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Samhwa Crown (004450)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.77 %: that much free cash flow Samhwa Crown produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Samhwa Crown (004450)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Samhwa Crown it is 38,809 KRW per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 28,500 KRW. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Samhwa Crown stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 004450 trades below its calculated fair value: price 28,500 KRW, fair value 38,809 KRW, a gap of about +36% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 004450?
No. The price is what the market pays today (28,500 KRW); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (38,809 KRW). For Samhwa Crown the two are 10,309 KRW per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Samhwa Crown worth?
The market values Samhwa Crown at about 51.2B KRW (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 28,500 KRW; our models calculate a fair value of 38,809 KRW per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 004450?
Our models span a range for Samhwa Crown: cautious scenario 28,962 KRW, base 38,809 KRW, optimistic 47,561 KRW per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 28,500 KRW). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Samhwa Crown (004450)?
Balance-sheet figures for Samhwa Crown (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.2%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 004450 from its 52-week high?
Samhwa Crown trades at 28,500 KRW, about 18% below its 52-week high of 34,917 KRW and 17% above the low of 24,400 KRW (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 38,809 KRW is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Samhwa Crown?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Samhwa Crown stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 28,500 KRW, calculated fair value 38,809 KRW (+36%), Quality Score 54/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 004450 calculated?
We run Samhwa Crown through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 38,809 KRW, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Samhwa Crown currently trades 36 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Samhwa Crown (004450)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 28,500 KRW. Our model-based fair value is 38,809 KRW, about +36% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Samhwa Crown right now?
Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits below our cautious bear case: the market assumes less than even our pessimistic scenario. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Samhwa Crown
How large is the market capitalisation of Samhwa Crown (004450)?
The market capitalisation of Samhwa Crown is 51.2B KRW (≈ $35.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Samhwa Crown (004450)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Samhwa Crown is 0.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Samhwa Crown (004450)?
The dividend yield of Samhwa Crown is 4.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Samhwa Crown (004450)?
The net margin of Samhwa Crown is 2.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Samhwa Crown (004450)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Samhwa Crown is 7.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Samhwa Crown (004450)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Samhwa Crown is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Samhwa Crown (004450)?
The operating margin of Samhwa Crown is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Samhwa Crown (004450)?
Revenue at Samhwa Crown is growing −5.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Samhwa Crown (004450)?
Earnings per share at Samhwa Crown are growing +32.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Samhwa Crown (004450) carry?
The net debt of Samhwa Crown is 48.5B KRW (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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