Asia Commercial Holdings Ltd (0104) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$184M (≈ $23.4M) · ISIN BMG0532V2009

What is Asia Commercial Holdings Ltd really worth?

AC Asia Commercial Holdings Ltd 0104 · HK

PriceHK$0.2280

Fair ValueHK$1.16

Upside+408.8%

Quality71/100

A solid business, trading 80% below our fair value of HK$1.16.

As of Aug 24, 2026, the fair value of Asia Commercial Holdings Ltd is HK$1.16 per share against a price of HK$0.2280, so the fair value sits 409% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

✓Ranks above peers (11/12)

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −10.5 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 5.9% net margin

!Narrow moat 43/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

For context

·13.16% dividend yield

Evidence: Low Range HK$0.8700 – HK$1.45

Fair value as of: Aug 24, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 13 days ago

Share price −5.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The rarer combination: high quality (71/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.8700). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0899 – HK$0.2600 · fair‑value band HK$0.8700 – HK$1.45 · the HK$0.2280 price screens below the HK$1.16 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 24, 2026.

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Analysis

Asia Commercial Holdings Ltd (0104) currently trades at HK$0.2280, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.16, implying the stock looks roughly 80.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$1.37 per share, and 24 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$0.2280 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.2800, and 0 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Asia Commercial Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$670M at a net margin of 5.9%. Revenue declined 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$56.5M. Fundamentals as of Aug 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.8700 (bear case) to HK$1.45 (bull case); at HK$0.2280, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 409%, 0104 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

FCF DCF best evidence HK$1.23 HK$1.46 HK$1.87 82

Growth DCF HK$1.25 HK$1.47 HK$1.82 80

Owner Earnings HK$0.8500 HK$1.00 HK$1.26 78

All 24 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF best evidence HK$1.23 HK$1.46 HK$1.87 82

Owner Earnings HK$0.8500 HK$1.00 HK$1.26 78

5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.05 HK$1.33 HK$1.76 74

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.31 HK$1.78 HK$2.41 76

5Y P/E Exit HK$1.08 HK$1.38 HK$1.76 72

10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.11 HK$1.35 HK$1.60 68

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.26 HK$1.60 HK$1.97 70

10Y P/E Exit HK$1.14 HK$1.37 HK$1.61 65

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$0.3600 HK$0.6000 HK$0.7300 67

EPV HK$0.6800 HK$0.7400 HK$0.7900 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$0.2400 HK$0.2800 HK$0.3200 69

DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.2400 HK$0.3000 HK$0.3600 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$0.8700 HK$1.16 HK$1.45 63

P/S Multiple HK$0.6700 HK$0.9000 HK$1.12 58

P/B Multiple HK$0.6700 HK$0.9000 HK$1.12 55

EV/EBIT HK$1.78 HK$2.31 HK$2.84 66

EV/EBITDA HK$1.57 HK$2.03 HK$2.49 67

EV/Revenue HK$0.9500 HK$1.27 HK$1.60 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$0.3200 HK$0.4300 HK$0.6400 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$1.25 HK$1.47 HK$1.82 80

Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.05 HK$1.36 HK$1.76 74

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$0.4900 HK$0.5100 HK$0.5200 76

ROIC Compounder HK$0.6900 HK$0.7500 HK$0.8100 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.6100 HK$0.8800 HK$1.14 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$1.37) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.2800). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (82).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 4.9 as of Jul 1, 2026

P/S ratio 0.29 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$0.0200 price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.9

Dividend yield 13.2% payout 150%

Net margin 5.9% FY2026

Return on equity 8.6% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 12.6% avg 5y

Operating margin 11.9% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$670M TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) −2.9% 3y avg −2.0%

EPS growth (YoY) −8.4%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$103M FY2025

Net cash HK$56.5M FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 71/100

Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51

Profitability 49

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 45

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 82

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 76

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 98

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 86

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 38

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 35

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 82

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Asia Commercial Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the trading and sale of watches in Hong Kong, the People's Republic of China, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland.

Full company description

Asia Commercial Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the trading and sale of watches in Hong Kong, the People's Republic of China, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland. The company is also involved in the assembly and marketing of gold and jewellery watches; property holding, development, investment, and leasing activities; and brand development business. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Asia Commercial Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$670M in FY2026 versus HK$785M in FY2022, a compound −3.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$39.5M in FY2026, compounding −17.2%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 40/100

Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Latest Revenue (FY 2026)

HK$670M

Latest YoY

−5.6%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

−2.0%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

−10.5%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (26Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+6.1%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

≈ +14.5% (approximate, leans on 2026) · in HKD

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share+1.3%

Dividend yield13.2%

Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −11.1% vs 10Y 2.9%, flattening

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6.1% (2021) → 13.1% (2026) · rising

Worst earnings drop275% (2020) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in HKD

⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.2%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

⚠ Final year 2026 sits 51% above its own trend (e.g. a one-off disposal gain), so this rate uses the operating basis instead of reported profit

Revenue −3.9%/yr

FY22 HK$785M

FY23 HK$711M

FY24 HK$705M

FY25 HK$709M

FY26 HK$670M

Net income −17.2%/yr

FY22 HK$83.8M

FY23 HK$43.7M

FY24 HK$26.2M

FY25 HK$24.5M

FY26 HK$39.5M

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Asia Commercial Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$1.16 +80%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0104.HK" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Asia Commercial Holdings Ltd · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$1.16</b> <span style="color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+80%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Asia Commercial Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0104.HK

Peer Group

Specialty Retail · 218 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 71 · Top 25%

Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median

Return on assets 8% · Top 25%

Net margin (TTM) 6% · Top 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 12% · Top 25%

Revenue growth −3% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 13.2% · Top 25%

Debt / equity 0.06× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 4.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/B 0.39× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/S (TTM) 0.28× · Cheaper than median

P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE0 · sector 31

FUTURE0 · sector 25

PAST34 · sector 27

HEALTH97 · sector 96

DIVIDEND100 · sector 58

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 24, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ATD	C$89.93	C$104.32	+16%
Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY	$755.47	$398.90	−47%
Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM	$235.09	$162.63	−31%
Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA	$537.10	$475.40	−11%
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS	$139.15	$233.87	+68%
Best Buy Co BBY	$82.44	$108.04	+31%
China Tourism Group 601888	¥54.97	¥40.40	−27%
Tractor Supply Company TSCO	$34.72	$35.52	+2%
Five Below, Inc FIVE	$259.41	$117.29	−55%
Murphy USA Inc MUSA	$574.12	$423.35	−26%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Asia Commercial Holdings Ltd (0104) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.16 versus a price of HK$0.2280, about +409% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 0104?

Our model-based fair value for Asia Commercial Holdings Ltd is HK$1.16 (as of Aug 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2280.

What is the quality score of 0104?

Asia Commercial Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Asia Commercial Holdings Ltd (0104)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.16 (as of Aug 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.8700, optimistic scenario HK$1.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Asia Commercial Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$1.16, about +409% upside versus a price of HK$0.2280 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.8700, optimistic scenario HK$1.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Asia Commercial Holdings Ltd (0104)?

Asia Commercial Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$670M (latest available figure, as of Aug 24, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 0104?

The net profit margin of Asia Commercial Holdings Ltd is about 5.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does Asia Commercial Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?

Asia Commercial Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 13.16% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 24, 2026).

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