Five Below, Inc (FIVE) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $10.9B

A solid business, but screening 49% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($214.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• A fairly wide model range ($82.70 to $214.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $55.75 – $247.71 · fair‑value band $82.70 – $214.21 · the $231.12 price screens above the $117.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

Five Below, Inc (FIVE) currently trades at $231.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $117.29, implying the stock looks roughly 49.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Five Below, Inc generated revenue of $4.8B at a net margin of 7.5%. Revenue grew 24.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.9%. Net debt stands at $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $82.70 (bear case) to $214.21 (bull case); at $231.12, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 91% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at -49%, FIVE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($220.65) versus Dividend Discount ($16.11). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Five Below, Inc. operates as a specialty value retailer in the United States. It offers assortment of classic and novelty candy bars, movie-size box candy, seasonal-related candy, gum, and snack food products, as well as sells chilled drinks through coolers; socks, jewelry, hair accessories, cozy loungewear, and t-shirts; personal care essentials, skincare, …

Full company description

Five Below, Inc. operates as a specialty value retailer in the United States. It offers assortment of classic and novelty candy bars, movie-size box candy, seasonal-related candy, gum, and snack food products, as well as sells chilled drinks through coolers; socks, jewelry, hair accessories, cozy loungewear, and t-shirts; personal care essentials, skincare, fragrance, and branded cosmetics; and party goods, decorations, gag gifts, greeting cards, and every day and special occasion merchandise products. The company also provides personalized living space products, such as lamps, posters, frames, fleece blankets, plush items, pillows, candles, incense, lighting, novelty décor, accent furniture, and related items, as well as provides storage options; assortment of craft activity kits with various arts and crafts supplies, such as markers, paint, canvas, compounds, slime, beads, and stickers; and supplies craft activities and school products. In addition, it offers cell phone cables and chargers, power banks, phone cases and accessories, screen protectors, auto phone accessories, and computer and tablet accessories, as well as earbuds, headphones, and speakers. Further, the company provides assortment of sport balls, sports accessories and fitness products, including hand weights and yoga mats; toys, including brand name board games, puzzles, action figures, construction sets, remote control, collectibles, novelty toys, and plush products; and outdoor toys for the pool and beach. Additionally, it offers seasonally relevant items to use for the occasions and milestones, such as Holiday, Easter, Halloween, Summer, and Back to School. The company was formerly known as Cheap Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Five Below, Inc. in August 2002. Five Below, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Five Below, Inc reported revenue of $4.8B in FY2026 versus $2.8B in FY2022, a compound +13.7%/yr. Reported net income was $359M in FY2026, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2022.

FIVE screens 49% overvalued. Compare with Casey's General Stores, Inc →

Peer Group

Specialty Retail · 221 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 44/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.