Casey's General Stores, Inc (CASY) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $30.6B
Casey's General Stores, Inc
CASY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $295.13 to $405.44 (+37.4%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price +3.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 51% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($506.80). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($218.30 to $506.80) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $167.86 – $916.28 · fair‑value band $218.30 – $506.80 · the $832.42 price screens above the $405.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Casey's General Stores, Inc (CASY) currently trades at $832.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $405.44, implying the stock looks roughly 51.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Casey's General Stores, Inc generated revenue of $17.0B at a net margin of 3.8%. Revenue grew 0.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.9%. Net debt stands at $2.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $218.30 (bear case) to $506.80 (bull case); at $832.42, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 93% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at -51%, CASY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($359.19) versus Dividend Discount ($36.17). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Casey's General Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates convenience stores under the Casey's and Casey's General Store names in the United States. Its stores offer pizza, donuts, breakfast items, and sandwiches; and tobacco and nicotine products.
Full company description
Casey's General Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates convenience stores under the Casey's and Casey's General Store names in the United States. Its stores offer pizza, donuts, breakfast items, and sandwiches; and tobacco and nicotine products. The company's stores also provide soft drinks, energy, water, sports drinks, juices, coffee, and tea and dairy products; beer, wine, and spirits; snacks, candy, packaged bakery, and other food items; ice, ice cream, meals, and appetizers; health and beauty aids, automotive products, electronic accessories, and housewares; and breadsticks, wraps, chicken wings and tenders, breakfast croissants and biscuits, breakfast burritos, hash browns, burgers, cookies and brownies, and other seasonal items. In addition, its stores offer motor fuel for sale on a self-service basis; gasoline and diesel fuel; and ATM, lotto/lottery, and prepaid cards, as well as car wash services. The company also operates distribution centers. Casey's General Stores, Inc. was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Casey's General Stores, Inc reported revenue of $17.6B in FY2026 versus $13.0B in FY2022, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was $714M in FY2026, compounding +20.4%/yr from FY2022.
CASY screens 51% overvalued. Compare with Williams-Sonoma, Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $222.84 | $164.16 | -26% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $479.57 | $488.39 | +2% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $208.89 | $181.10 | -13% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.98 | $109.12 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥52.90 | ¥40.40 | -24% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.01 | $35.52 | +15% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $618.57 | $423.35 | -32% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $197.71 | $117.29 | -41% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 110.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -27% |
| GameStop Corp GME | $21.68 | $15.31 | -29% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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