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Data-driven stock valuation

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Tractor Supply Company is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $16.3B · ISIN US8923561067

At a glance

TS Tractor Supply Company logo Tractor Supply Company TSCO · US
Price$35.29
Fair Value$35.52
Upside+0.7%
Quality60/100

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of $35.52.

As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of Tractor Supply Company is $35.52 per share against a price of $35.29, so the fair value sits 1% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +7.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.9% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·2.64% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
!Moderate moat 57/100
!Weak on future: 18 out of 100
Evidence: High Range $22.21 to $51.35

Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price +2.1% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range ($22.21 to $51.35) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$61.60 $29.14 Fair Value $35.52 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $29.14 – $61.60 · fair‑value band $22.21 – $51.35 · the $35.29 price screens below the $35.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

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Analysis

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) currently trades at $35.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.52, implying the stock looks roughly 0.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $39.50 per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the $35.29 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $23.55, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Tractor Supply Company generated revenue of $15.6B at a net margin of 6.9%. Revenue grew 3.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 45.5%. Net debt stands at $5.7B. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026

Scenario range: $22.21 (bear) to $51.35 (bull), the price of $35.29 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at 1%, TSCO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7595 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence $14.95 $28.93 $52.90 77
Growth DCF $14.87 $27.84 $49.59 75
EPV $18.16 $21.69 $24.78 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence $14.95 $28.93 $52.90 77
Owner Earnings $13.85 $26.98 $49.49 73
5Y Revenue Exit $19.36 $37.60 $62.46 70
5Y EBITDA Exit $23.72 $46.49 $75.06 73
5Y P/E Exit $24.23 $47.53 $74.12 69
10Y Revenue Exit $16.87 $33.66 $59.49 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $20.58 $40.14 $69.93 66
10Y P/E Exit $20.92 $40.90 $69.15 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $14.21 $63.43 $86.91 64
Lynch FV $16.49 $23.55 $30.62 61
PEG = 1.0 $16.49 $23.55 $30.62 57
EPV $18.16 $21.69 $24.78 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $34.48 $45.98 $57.47 63
P/S Multiple $26.64 $35.52 $44.40 58
P/B Multiple $14.77 $19.69 $24.61 55
EV/EBIT $34.78 $47.37 $59.96 66
EV/EBITDA $30.66 $41.88 $53.10 67
EV/Revenue $21.87 $32.53 $43.18 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.46 $3.30 $4.92 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $14.87 $27.84 $49.59 75
Rev-Margin DCF $19.36 $37.02 $59.52 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income $16.53 $25.01 $331.17 64
ROIC Compounder $20.77 $28.26 $37.54 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $27.65 $39.50 $51.35 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($39.50) versus Asset-Based ($3.30). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 16.9
P/S ratio 1.19 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $2.09 price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.9
Dividend yield 2.6% payout 44.5%
Net margin 7.1% FY2025
Return on equity 45.5% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 15.6% avg 5y
Operating margin 6.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $15.6B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +3.6% 3y avg +3.0%
EPS growth (YoY) −8.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $740M FY2025
Net debt $5.7B FY2025 · ≈ 7.8 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 77
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 40
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 59
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 81
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 24
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 10
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 97
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company provides various merchandise, including livestock and equine feed and equipment, poultry, fencing, and sprayers and chemicals; companion animal products, such as food, treats, and equipment for dogs, cats, and other small animals, as well as dog wellness …

Full company description

Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company provides various merchandise, including livestock and equine feed and equipment, poultry, fencing, and sprayers and chemicals; companion animal products, such as food, treats, and equipment for dogs, cats, and other small animals, as well as dog wellness products; seasonal and recreation products comprising tractors and riders, lawn and garden, bird feeding, power equipment, and other recreational products; truck, tool, and hardware products, such as truck accessories, trailers, generators, lubricants, batteries, and hardware and tools; and clothing, gift, and décor products consist of clothing, footwear, toys, snacks, and decorative merchandise. It offers its products under the 4health, Paws & Claws, American Farmworks, Producer's Pride, Bit & Bridle, Red Shed, Blue Mountain, Redstone, C.E. Schmidt, Retriever, Country Lane, Ridgecut, Countyline, Royal Wing, Country Tuff, Strive, Dumor, Traveller, Farm Table, Treeline, Groundwork, TSC Tractor Supply Co, Huskee, Untamed, JobSmart, and Impeckable brand names. The company operates its retail stores under the Tractor Supply Company, Petsense by Tractor Supply, and Orscheln Farm and Home names; and operates websites under the TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com names. It sells its products to recreational farmers, ranchers, and others. Tractor Supply Company was founded in 1938 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tractor Supply Company reported revenue of $15.5B in FY2025 versus $12.7B in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding +2.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 76/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$15.5B
Latest YoY
+4.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (32Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.4%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+10.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+8.1%
Dividend yield2.6%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 10.1% vs 10Y 13.1%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9.4% (2020) → 9.5% (2025) · steady
Revenue +5.1%/yr
FY21 $12.7B
FY22 $14.2B
FY23 $14.6B
FY24 $14.9B
FY25 $15.5B
Net income +2.4%/yr
FY21 $997M
FY22 $1.1B
FY23 $1.1B
FY24 $1.1B
FY25 $1.1B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +14.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +13.1 %

of which total revenue +10.2 % · buybacks/dilution +2.6 %

EBIT margin −0.6 %
Tax rate +2.3 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tractor Supply Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TSCO

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Specialty Retail · 222 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 60 · Above median
Fair Value upside +2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 46% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.68× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B 6.30× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.04× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 22.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 9.1× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.34× · Pricier than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Tractor Supply Company deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+8.4 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+7.9 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.6 %
FCF yield on price3.94 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.1 %

The price demands roughly the growth the company recently delivered. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE34 · sector 30
FUTURE18 · sector 24
PAST100 · sector 27
HEALTH66 · sector 96
DIVIDEND53 · sector 57

Insider activity: 30/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ATD C$89.93 C$104.32 +16%
Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY $756.09 $398.90 −47%
Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM $227.42 $162.63 −28%
Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA $537.10 $475.40 −11%
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS $139.15 $233.87 +68%
Best Buy Co BBY $90.27 $108.04 +20%
China Tourism Group 601888 ¥54.60 ¥40.40 −26%
Five Below, Inc FIVE $259.41 $117.29 −55%
Murphy USA Inc MUSA $574.12 $423.35 −26%
Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 116.00 TWD 80.98 TWD −30%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $35.52 versus a price of $35.29, about +1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TSCO?
Our model-based fair value for Tractor Supply Company is $35.52 (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $35.29.
What is the quality score of TSCO?
Tractor Supply Company has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $35.52 (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.21, optimistic scenario $51.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tractor Supply Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $35.52, about +1% upside versus a price of $35.29 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $22.21, optimistic scenario $51.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)?
Tractor Supply Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $15.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of TSCO?
The net profit margin of Tractor Supply Company is about 6.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Tractor Supply Company pay a dividend?
Tractor Supply Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tractor Supply Company would have to grow free cash flow by +8.4 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.1 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.9 % per year. As of Sep 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TSCO use?
Our models discount Tractor Supply Company at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tractor Supply Company it is $35.52 per share (as of Sep 8, 2026), against a price of $35.29. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tractor Supply Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 8, 2026, TSCO trades below its calculated fair value: price $35.29, fair value $35.52, a gap of about +1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TSCO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($35.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($35.52). For Tractor Supply Company the two are $0.2300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tractor Supply Company worth?
The market values Tractor Supply Company at about $16.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 8, 2026). Per share that is $35.29; our models calculate a fair value of $35.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TSCO?
Our models span a range for Tractor Supply Company: cautious scenario $22.21, base $35.52, optimistic $51.35 per share (as of Sep 8, 2026, price $35.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TSCO?
Tractor Supply Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.9 (as of Sep 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $35.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 6.3, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 9.1.
What is the PEG ratio of TSCO?
The PEG ratio of Tractor Supply Company is 1.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tractor Supply Company (as of Sep 8, 2026): return on equity 45.5%, debt of 0.68 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TSCO from its 52-week high?
Tractor Supply Company trades at $35.29, about 44% below its 52-week high of $62.68 and 24% above the low of $28.36 (as of Sep 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $35.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tractor Supply Company?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tractor Supply Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 8, 2026: price $35.29, calculated fair value $35.52 (+1%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TSCO calculated?
We run Tractor Supply Company through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $35.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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