Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (ATD) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CA · Market cap C$83.6B
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 18 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 20, 2026, revised from C$61.82 to C$75.00 (+21.3%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price +1.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 19% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (C$44.15 to C$94.14) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$39.57 – C$93.54 · fair‑value band C$44.15 – C$94.14 · the C$92.70 price screens above the C$75.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (ATD) currently trades at C$92.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$75.00, implying the stock looks roughly 19.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc generated revenue of C$73.3B at a net margin of 3.7%. Revenue declined 22.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.2%. Net debt stands at C$13.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$44.15 (bear case) to C$94.14 (bull case); at C$92.70, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at -19%, ATD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (C$79.26) versus Dividend Discount (C$9.70). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. operates and licenses convenience stores in North America, Europe, and Asia. It offers cigarette products and other nicotine products, beverages, beer, wine, fresh food offerings comprising quick service restaurants, candy and snacks, grocery items, and car wash and other services; road transportation fuels and operates …
Full company description
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. operates and licenses convenience stores in North America, Europe, and Asia. It offers cigarette products and other nicotine products, beverages, beer, wine, fresh food offerings comprising quick service restaurants, candy and snacks, grocery items, and car wash and other services; road transportation fuels and operates electric vehicles charging stations; sells energy for stationary engines and aviation fuels; sells lottery tickets, and calling and gift cards; and automatic teller machines. The company operates its convenience stores chain under various banners, including Circle K, Couche-Tard, Holiday, and Ingo. In addition, it operates and licenses stores operated under the Circle K banner in Egypt, Guam, Guatemala, Honduras, Indonesia, Macau, Mexico, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Tanzania, the United Arab Emirates, and Vietnam. The company was formerly known as Actidev Inc. and changed its name to Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. in December 1994. Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Laval, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc reported revenue of C$76.5B in FY2026 versus C$62.8B in FY2022, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was C$3.1B in FY2026, compounding +4.0%/yr from FY2022.
ATD screens 19% overvalued. Compare with Casey's General Stores, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Alimentation Couche-Tard Calls Żabka Deal Its Largest, Most Transformational Acquisition
- Alimentation Couche-Tard to Acquire Poland's Zabka Group For $8.6 Billion
- Alimentation Couche-Tard plans to acquire Polish c-store chain Żabka for $8.6B
- ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD ANNOUNCES AGREEMENT TO ACQUIRE CONTROLLING STAKE IN ŻABKA GROUP AND LAUNCHES VOLUNTARY TENDER OFFER
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $827.04 | $405.44 | -51% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $222.84 | $164.16 | -26% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $479.57 | $488.39 | +2% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $208.89 | $181.10 | -13% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.98 | $109.12 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥52.90 | ¥40.40 | -24% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.01 | $35.52 | +15% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $618.57 | $423.35 | -32% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $197.71 | $117.29 | -41% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 110.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -27% |
Compare Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (ATD) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of ATD?
What is the quality score of ATD?
What is the revenue of Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (ATD)?
What is the net profit margin of ATD?
Does Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.