Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A stock C$105, price C$83.59, upside +25.4%, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
The stock costs 20% less than our calculation considers fair.
Fair value C$104.83 · Undervalued (20%)
Quality 63/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +10.8 %/yr in USD)
Generates free cash flow
1.0% dividend yield · Well covered
Positive coverage
Broad data
Revenue last quarter +25% vs. a year ago.
Thin margins · 3.9% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
Mixed vs. peers(7/15)
Moderate moat57/100
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Pending regulatory approvals for ownership consolidation🚩Electric vehicles could cut fuel demand🚩Antitrust rules could force divestitures🚩Climate rules could raise fuel costs
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$44.23 – C$93.29 · fair‑value band C$68.52 – C$131.58 · the C$83.59 price screens below the C$104.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
Follow Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. operates and licenses convenience stores in North America, Europe, and Asia.
Show moreShow less
It offers cigarette products and other nicotine products, beverages, beer, wine, fresh food offerings comprising quick service restaurants, candy and snacks, grocery items, and car wash and other services; road transportation fuels and operates electric vehicles charging stations; sells energy for stationary engines and aviation fuels; sells lottery tickets, and calling and gift cards; and automatic teller machines.
The company operates its convenience stores chain under various banners, including Circle K, Couche-Tard, Holiday, and Ingo.
In addition, it operates and licenses stores operated under the Circle K banner in Egypt, Guam, Guatemala, Honduras, Indonesia, Macau, Mexico, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Tanzania, the United Arab Emirates, and Vietnam.
The company was formerly known as Actidev Inc. and changed its name to Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. in December 1994. Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Laval, Canada.
Stock analysis
Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD) currently trades at C$83.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$104.83, implying the stock looks roughly 20% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$128.96 per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the C$83.59 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at C$14.82, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$68.52 (bear) to C$131.58 (bull), the price of C$83.59 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A reported revenue of $76.5B in FY2026 versus $62.8B in FY2022, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was $3.1B in FY2026, compounding +4.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap C$78.0B (≈ $55.6B) Large · P/E ratio 17.5 · P/S ratio 0.69 · EPS (TTM) C$4.77 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 3.9% · Return on equity 19.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 25%, ATD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$68.52Fair Value C$104.83BullC$131.58
Price C$83.59 · Upside +25.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$2.06 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.4% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.4%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.6% vs 12.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.5% a year for the price and +0.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (90 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Scale advantages in store network and operations support a moderate moat, yet limited innovation and labor factors constrain long-term durability.
Main risk: Widespread adoption of electric vehicles could steadily reduce volumes and margins in road transportation fuel sales at Couche-Tard sites.
Bull case: Couche-Tard could expand its EV charging network and shift emphasis to higher-margin food and convenience offerings to offset any fuel-volume decline.
Bear case: If fuel demand falls sharply while regulatory hurdles slow acquisitions, the company could face prolonged pressure on overall volumes and profitability.
Couche-Tard is consolidating ownership of dozens of retail sites and fuel supply agreements in Quebec and Ontario that it already operates under its alliance with Irving Oil, plus cardlock locations for commercial fleets. The deal strengthens its position in core markets yet remains subject to regulatory approvals. Our models see the stock as undervalued. Will the tighter control over these operations deliver lasting efficiency gains or mainly add integration complexity?
Compare Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 203 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside+25.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)19.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)3.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)5.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)25.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.64× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)17.5× · Pricier than median
P/B3.44× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.69× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)16.5× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ATD
Frequently asked questions
Is Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$104.83 versus a price of C$83.59, about +25% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ATD?
Our model-based fair value for Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A is C$104.83 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$83.59.
What is the quality score of ATD?
Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$104.83 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$68.52, optimistic scenario C$131.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$104.83, about +25% upside versus a price of C$83.59 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$68.52, optimistic scenario C$131.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD)?
Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $80.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A pay a dividend?
Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A currently shows a dividend yield of 0.98% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A would have to grow free cash flow by +4.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.8 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ATD use?
Our models discount Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A that is +4.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A grew +10.8 % a year. The price currently implies +4.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (+4.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.07 %: that much free cash flow Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A it is C$104.83 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of C$83.59. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, ATD trades below its calculated fair value: price C$83.59, fair value C$104.83, a gap of about +25% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ATD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$83.59); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$104.83). For Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A the two are C$21.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A worth?
The market values Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A at about C$78.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is C$83.59; our models calculate a fair value of C$104.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ATD?
Our models span a range for Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A: cautious scenario C$68.52, base C$104.83, optimistic C$131.58 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price C$83.59). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ATD?
Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.5 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$104.83 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2020 to 2026), reported earnings: 17.6. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 3.4, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 9.8.
What is the PEG ratio of ATD?
The PEG ratio of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A is 1.52 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 19.6%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ATD from its 52-week high?
Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A trades at C$83.59, about 10% below its 52-week high of C$93.29 and 23% above the low of C$67.79 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$104.83 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, Best Buy Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price C$83.59, calculated fair value C$104.83 (+25%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ATD calculated?
We run Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$104.83, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A currently trades 20% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was C$83.59. Our model-based fair value is C$104.83, about +25% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A right now?
Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (C$68.52 to C$131.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD) come from?
Earnings per share at Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A grew +13.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.5 %, EBIT margin +2.7 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A
How large is the market capitalisation of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD)?
The market capitalisation of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A is C$78.0B (≈ $55.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A is 0.69 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD)?
Earnings per share at Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A are C$4.77 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD)?
The dividend yield of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A is 1.0% (payout 17.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD)?
The net margin of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A is 3.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A is 19.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A is 11.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD)?
The operating margin of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD)?
Revenue at Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A is growing +25.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD)?
Earnings per share at Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A are growing +9.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A (ATD) carry?
The net debt of Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A is $13.3B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A in the live analysis
One click puts Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 5, 2026