Murphy USA Inc (MUSA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Murphy USA Inc stock $351, price $515, that is 31.7% below the price, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $142.26 – $622.78 · fair‑value band $193.63 – $520.21 · the $514.53 price screens above the $351.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Murphy USA Inc., together with subsidiaries, engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company operates retail stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands, as well as operates non-fuel convenience stores.
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It operates retail gasoline stores principally in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest areas of the United States. Murphy USA Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas.
Stock analysis
Murphy USA Inc (MUSA) currently trades at $514.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $351.45, 32% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $435.26 per share, and 2 of the 24 models we run sit above the $514.53 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $116.38, and 22 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $193.63 (bear) to $520.21 (bull), the price of $514.53 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Murphy USA Inc reported revenue of $19.4B in FY2025 versus $17.4B in FY2021, a compound +2.8%/yr. Reported net income was $471M in FY2025, compounding +4.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.5B Mid · P/E ratio 16.2 · P/S ratio 0.50 · EPS (TTM) $31.78 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity 86.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −32%, MUSA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$193.63Fair Value $351.45Bull$520.21
Price $514.53 · Downside -31.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($24.93 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 9 officers or directors sold shares worth $6.2M and none bought.
SaleDavid GoebelDirector1,000 shares at $511.36$511,360Nov 3, 2026
SaleDonald R Smith JrSVP, CFO & Treasurer1,460 shares at $515.65$752,849Nov 2, 2026
SaleEric J. BartkoSVP & Chief Customer Officer2× since Feb 13, 2026: 445 shares, avg. $431.53$192,030Sep 3, 2026
SaleRosemary TurnerDirector966 shares at $571.88$552,436Aug 20, 2026
SaleRobert Madison MurphyDirector2× since May 4, 2026: 43,500 shares, avg. $597.41$26.0MJul 29, 2026
SaleDiane N LandenDirector3,000 shares at $547.25$1.6MJun 5, 2026
SaleJames W KeyesDirector2,339 shares at $511.00$1.2MJun 1, 2026
SaleRenee M BaconSVP, Chief Retail Officer4× since Feb 10, 2026: 5,466 shares, avg. $414.12$2.3MMay 27, 2026
SaleKeith A. EmerySVP, Chief Fuels Officer2× since Feb 26, 2026: 1,416 shares, avg. $452.62$640,906May 15, 2026
SaleScott G. WoodwardSVP, Chief Merchandising Off.2× since Mar 5, 2026: 295 shares, avg. $517.92$152,601May 5, 2026
Plus 4 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.3% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.0% vs 16.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.7% a year for the price and −1.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The business draws strength from its store network and resilient fuel volumes yet remains constrained by thin margins and limited evidence of durable competitive advantages.
Main risk: Tightening pressures on fuel volumes and margins would directly reduce profitability in the core retail fuel operations.
Murphy USA is reshaping its executive team under CEO Mindy West to clarify responsibilities, boost accountability and spark more innovation across strategy, merchandising and fuels. This internal push for a cultural shift comes as the business model continues to rely on fuel volumes and margins that have shown strength but face tightening pressures ahead. Will these leadership changes help the company capture more durable growth from its store network, or will they mainly add costs without lifting overall performance?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 204 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−31.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)86.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)3.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)4.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)40.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.47× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Murphy USA Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MUSA
Frequently asked questions
Is Murphy USA Inc (MUSA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $351.45 versus a price of $514.53, about 32% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MUSA?
Our model-based fair value for Murphy USA Inc is $351.45 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $514.53.
What is the quality score of MUSA?
Murphy USA Inc has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $351.45 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $193.63, optimistic scenario $520.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Murphy USA Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $351.45, about 32% lower versus a price of $514.53 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $193.63, optimistic scenario $520.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)?
Murphy USA Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $19.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Murphy USA Inc pay a dividend?
Murphy USA Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.47% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Murphy USA Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +14.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.5 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MUSA use?
Our models discount Murphy USA Inc at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Murphy USA Inc that is +14.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Murphy USA Inc (MUSA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Murphy USA Inc grew +11.5 % a year. The price currently implies +14.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Murphy USA Inc (MUSA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Murphy USA Inc (+14.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.92 %: that much free cash flow Murphy USA Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Murphy USA Inc it is $351.45 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $514.53. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Murphy USA Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, MUSA trades above its calculated fair value: price $514.53, fair value $351.45, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MUSA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($514.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($351.45). For Murphy USA Inc the two are $163.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Murphy USA Inc worth?
The market values Murphy USA Inc at about $9.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $514.53; our models calculate a fair value of $351.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MUSA?
Our models span a range for Murphy USA Inc: cautious scenario $193.63, base $351.45, optimistic $520.21 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $514.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MUSA?
Murphy USA Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $351.45 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2019, FY2023, FY2025 ex one-offs: 12.6. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 15.3, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 9.5.
What is the PEG ratio of MUSA?
The PEG ratio of Murphy USA Inc is 1.51 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Murphy USA Inc (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 86.4%, debt of 3.47 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MUSA from its 52-week high?
Murphy USA Inc trades at $514.53, about 17% below its 52-week high of $622.78 and 45% above the low of $355.19 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $351.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Murphy USA Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Murphy USA Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $514.53, calculated fair value $351.45 (−32%), Quality Score 58/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MUSA calculated?
We run Murphy USA Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $351.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Murphy USA Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $514.53. Our model-based fair value is $351.45, about 32% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Murphy USA Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($193.63 to $520.21). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Murphy USA Inc (MUSA) come from?
Earnings per share at Murphy USA Inc grew +19.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.4 %, EBIT margin +6.0 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Murphy USA Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)?
The market capitalisation of Murphy USA Inc is $9.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Murphy USA Inc is 0.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)?
Earnings per share at Murphy USA Inc are $31.78 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)?
The dividend yield of Murphy USA Inc is 0.5% (payout 7.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)?
The net margin of Murphy USA Inc is 3.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Murphy USA Inc is 86.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Murphy USA Inc is 17.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)?
The operating margin of Murphy USA Inc is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)?
Revenue at Murphy USA Inc is growing +40.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)?
Earnings per share at Murphy USA Inc are growing +53.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Murphy USA Inc (MUSA) carry?
The net debt of Murphy USA Inc is $3.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026