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Sichuan Expressway Co Ltd (0107) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$13.1B (≈ $1.7B) · ISIN CNE100000494

What is Sichuan Expressway Co Ltd really worth?

SE Sichuan Expressway Co Ltd 0107 · HK
PriceHK$4.79
Fair ValueHK$8.43
Upside+76.0%
Quality47/100

Below-average quality, trading 43% below our fair value of HK$8.43.

As of Sep 6, 2026, the fair value of Sichuan Expressway Co Ltd is HK$8.43 per share against a price of HK$4.79, so the fair value sits 76% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 16.2% net margin
✓Ranks above peers (9/15)

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +10.1 %/yr)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 59/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 28 out of 100
!Weak on balance sheet: 5 out of 100

For context

·7.10% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range HK$5.59 – HK$13.64

Fair value as of: Sep 6, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Sep 6, 2026, revised from HK$7.87 to HK$8.43 (+7.1%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +2.8% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$5.59). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$5.59 to HK$13.64) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$5.73 HK$1.23 Fair Value HK$8.43 Mar 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.23 – HK$5.73 · fair‑value band HK$5.59 – HK$13.64 · the HK$4.79 price screens below the HK$8.43 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.

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Analysis

Sichuan Expressway Co Ltd (0107) currently trades at HK$4.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$8.43, implying the stock looks roughly 43.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of HK$12.17 per share, and 13 of the 15 models we run sit above the HK$4.79 price. Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at HK$1.49, and 2 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Sichuan Expressway Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$9.2B at a net margin of 16.2%. Revenue grew 21.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.0%. Net debt stands at HK$34.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 6, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$5.59 (bear case) to HK$13.64 (bull case); at HK$4.79, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 76%, 0107 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence HK$6.10 HK$6.51 HK$7.10 74
5Y EBITDA Exit — HK$4.93 HK$14.67 69
5Y P/E Exit — — HK$5.13 65
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
5Y EBITDA Exit — HK$4.93 HK$14.67 69
5Y P/E Exit — — HK$5.13 65
10Y EBITDA Exit — HK$1.49 HK$10.96 63
10Y P/E Exit — — HK$3.34 59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$3.75 HK$14.44 HK$19.58 62
Lynch FV HK$3.53 HK$5.04 HK$6.56 59
PEG = 1.0 HK$3.53 HK$5.04 HK$6.56 55
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$6.94 HK$14.44 HK$22.90 64
DDM Multi-Stage HK$6.94 HK$12.17 HK$15.15 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$8.68 HK$11.58 HK$14.47 63
P/S Multiple HK$4.79 HK$6.38 HK$7.98 58
P/B Multiple HK$7.03 HK$9.37 HK$11.71 55
EV/EBIT — HK$3.00 HK$6.85 61
EV/EBITDA HK$1.00 HK$5.46 HK$9.92 60
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$3.67 HK$4.92 HK$7.34 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence HK$6.10 HK$6.51 HK$7.10 74
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$6.38 HK$9.11 HK$11.84 65

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$12.17) versus DCF Models (HK$1.49). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 8.1 as of Jul 1, 2026
P/S ratio 1.40 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.2637 price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.1
Dividend yield 7.1% payout 129%
Net margin 17.3% FY2025
Return on equity 7.0% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1% avg 5y
Operating margin 29.8% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$9.2B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +21.2% 3y avg −4.0%
EPS growth (YoY) −6.8%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$880M FY2025
Net debt HK$34.1B FY2025 · ≈ 38.8 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 63
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 17
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 32
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 88
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 39
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Sichuan Expressway Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the investment, construction, operation, and management of highway infrastructure projects in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Highway, New Energy Technology, Transportation Services, Transportation and Logistics, Project Construction and Others segments.

Full company description

Sichuan Expressway Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the investment, construction, operation, and management of highway infrastructure projects in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Highway, New Energy Technology, Transportation Services, Transportation and Logistics, Project Construction and Others segments. The company is involved in oil sales, charging pile electricity sales, advertising location rental, service area rental, property rental, catering service, supermarket sales, and construction services. It also offers operation and management, expansion and construction of projects; investment and asset management; advertising management; investment consulting, development and operation of new energy infrastructure, such as charging and swapping facilities, battery banks, and hydrogen refueling stations; construction engineering and design, installation and maintenance of power transmission and supply facilities; interior decoration and renovation; equity investment; and sales of fuel, chemical products and LNG, as well as investment and operation of multimodal transport hubs, supply chain management, international freight forwarding, and technical equipment services. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Chengdu, the People's Republic of China with an additional office in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Sichuan Expressway Co Ltd reported revenue of 8.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 9.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −0.9%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5B CNY in FY2025, compounding −5.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$8.8B
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (24Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+5.7% · in HKD
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−1.4%
Dividend yield7.1%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −1.4% vs 10Y 0.1%, steady
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30.3% (2020) → 28.4% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop78% (2022) · in HKD
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Revenue −0.9%/yr
FY21 9.1B CNY
FY22 9.9B CNY
FY23 11.7B CNY
FY24 10.4B CNY
FY25 8.8B CNY
Net income −5.1%/yr
FY21 1.9B CNY
FY22 624M CNY
FY23 1.2B CNY
FY24 1.5B CNY
FY25 1.5B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −0.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share −2.7 %

of which total revenue +1.8 % · buybacks/dilution −4.4 %

EBIT margin +3.9 %
Tax rate +0.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Sichuan Expressway Co Ltd · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sichuan Expressway Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0107.HK

Peer Group

Infrastructure Operations · 64 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside −1% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 16% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 30% · Above median
Revenue growth 21% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.1% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 1.91× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.65× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.43× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 1.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 13.1× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.38× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE32 · sector 56
FUTURE100 · sector 10
PAST28 · sector 25
HEALTH5 · sector 69
DIVIDEND100 · sector 79

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 6, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings 001965 ¥9.80 ¥10.25 +5%
Jiangsu Expressway Company 600377 ¥12.01 ¥14.47 +20%
Shandong Hi-speed Company 600350 ¥10.90 ¥8.68 −20%
Zhejiang Expressway Co 0576 HK$6.31 HK$18.50 +193%
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co 000429 ¥13.04 ¥13.79 +6%
Anhui Expressway Company 600012 ¥16.15 ¥14.90 −8%
Shenzhen Expressway Corporation 600548 ¥8.37 ¥9.16 +9%
IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited IRB ₹18.95 ₹14.79 −22%
CUBEINVIT CUBEINVIT ₹159.18 ₹33.83 −79%
PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk JSMR 2,740 IDR 7,830 IDR +186%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Sichuan Expressway Co Ltd (0107) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$8.43 versus a price of HK$4.79, about +76% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0107?
Our model-based fair value for Sichuan Expressway Co Ltd is HK$8.43 (as of Sep 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$4.79.
What is the quality score of 0107?
Sichuan Expressway Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sichuan Expressway Co Ltd (0107)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$8.43 (as of Sep 6, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$5.59, optimistic scenario HK$13.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sichuan Expressway Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$8.43, about +76% upside versus a price of HK$4.79 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$5.59, optimistic scenario HK$13.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sichuan Expressway Co Ltd (0107)?
Sichuan Expressway Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$9.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0107?
The net profit margin of Sichuan Expressway Co Ltd is about 16.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 16.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Sichuan Expressway Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Sichuan Expressway Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.10% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 6, 2026).
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