Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Jasa Marga Tbk IDR 10,316, price IDR 2,540, upside +306.1%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 2,518 IDR – 5,142 IDR · fair‑value band 5,744 IDR – 13,411 IDR · the 2,540 IDR price screens below the 10,316 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk develops, constructs, operates, manages, and maintains toll roads in Indonesia. It offers road construction and maintenance services.
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PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk develops, constructs, operates, manages, and maintains toll roads in Indonesia. It offers road construction and maintenance services. The company also rents toll road equipment and vehicles; holds toll road concessions; develops and constructs real estate properties, including residential, office building, and apartment; and manages rest areas. PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) currently trades at 2,540 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 10,316 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 75.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 10,589 IDR per share, and 21 of the 25 models we run sit above the 2,540 IDR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 1,998 IDR, and 4 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 5,744 IDR (bear) to 13,411 IDR (bull), the price of 2,540 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Jasa Marga Tbk reported revenue of 29.9T IDR in FY2025 versus 15.2T IDR in FY2021, a compound +18.5%/yr. Reported net income was 3.7T IDR in FY2025, compounding +43.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 18.4T IDR (≈ $1.0B) · P/E ratio 5.3 · P/S ratio 0.64 · EPS (TTM) 483.03 IDR · Dividend yield 6.2% · Net margin 12.2% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at 306%, JSMR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 5,744 IDRFair Value 10,316 IDRBull 13,411 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (247.12 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.7% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+25.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18.9% vs 8.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 31%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.2% a year for the price and −4.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Infrastructure Operations · 61 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7.7% · Above median
Return on assets3.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)12.0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)36.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−8.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.96× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)5.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.51× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 10,316 IDR versus a price of 2,540 IDR, about +306% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of JSMR?
Our model-based fair value for Jasa Marga Tbk is 10,316 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2,540 IDR.
What is the quality score of JSMR?
Jasa Marga Tbk has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 10,316 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 5,744 IDR, optimistic scenario 13,411 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jasa Marga Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 10,316 IDR, about +306% upside versus a price of 2,540 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 5,744 IDR, optimistic scenario 13,411 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR)?
Jasa Marga Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 29.3T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Jasa Marga Tbk pay a dividend?
Jasa Marga Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Jasa Marga Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +10.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of JSMR use?
Our models discount Jasa Marga Tbk at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Jasa Marga Tbk that is +10.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Jasa Marga Tbk grew +16.9 % a year. The price currently implies +10.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Jasa Marga Tbk (+10.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 30.12 %: that much free cash flow Jasa Marga Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jasa Marga Tbk it is 10,316 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 2,540 IDR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jasa Marga Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, JSMR trades below its calculated fair value: price 2,540 IDR, fair value 10,316 IDR, a gap of about +306% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JSMR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2,540 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (10,316 IDR). For Jasa Marga Tbk the two are 7,776 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jasa Marga Tbk worth?
The market values Jasa Marga Tbk at about 18.4T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 2,540 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 10,316 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JSMR?
Our models span a range for Jasa Marga Tbk: cautious scenario 5,744 IDR, base 10,316 IDR, optimistic 13,411 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 2,540 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JSMR?
Jasa Marga Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 10,316 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 0.5, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 6.5.
What is the PEG ratio of JSMR?
The PEG ratio of Jasa Marga Tbk is 1.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jasa Marga Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 1.96 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JSMR from its 52-week high?
Jasa Marga Tbk trades at 2,540 IDR, about 34% below its 52-week high of 3,861 IDR and at the low of 2,540 IDR (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 10,316 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jasa Marga Tbk?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Transurban Group, China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings, Jiangsu Expressway Company, Shandong Hi-speed Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jasa Marga Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 2,540 IDR, calculated fair value 10,316 IDR (+306%), Quality Score 49/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JSMR calculated?
We run Jasa Marga Tbk through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 10,316 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Jasa Marga Tbk currently trades 75 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 2,540 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 10,316 IDR, about +306% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jasa Marga Tbk right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (5,744 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (5,744 IDR to 13,411 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) come from?
Earnings per share at Jasa Marga Tbk grew +12.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.6 %, EBIT margin +2.6 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Jasa Marga Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR)?
The market capitalisation of Jasa Marga Tbk is 18.4T IDR (≈ $1.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jasa Marga Tbk is 0.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR)?
Earnings per share at Jasa Marga Tbk are 483.03 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR)?
The dividend yield of Jasa Marga Tbk is 6.2% (payout 32.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR)?
The net margin of Jasa Marga Tbk is 12.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jasa Marga Tbk is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jasa Marga Tbk is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR)?
The operating margin of Jasa Marga Tbk is 36.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR)?
Revenue at Jasa Marga Tbk is growing −8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR)?
Earnings per share at Jasa Marga Tbk are growing −16.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) carry?
The net debt of Jasa Marga Tbk is 68.0T IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 12.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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