PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk (JSMR) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · ID · Market cap 19.5T IDR
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 10,316 IDR to 7,830 IDR (−24.1%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +1.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 186% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (4,331 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide (4,331 IDR to 13,236 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 2,518 IDR – 5,142 IDR · fair‑value band 4,331 IDR – 13,236 IDR · the 2,740 IDR price screens below the 7,830 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk (JSMR) currently trades at 2,740 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7,830 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 185.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk generated revenue of 29.3T IDR at a net margin of 12.0%. Revenue declined 8.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.7%. Net debt stands at 68.0T IDR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 4,331 IDR (bear case) to 13,236 IDR (bull case); at 2,740 IDR, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 186%, JSMR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (10,589 IDR) versus Dividend Discount (2,688 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk develops, constructs, operates, manages, and maintains toll roads in Indonesia. It offers road construction and maintenance services.
Full company description
PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk develops, constructs, operates, manages, and maintains toll roads in Indonesia. It offers road construction and maintenance services. The company also rents toll road equipment and vehicles; holds toll road concessions; develops and constructs real estate properties, including residential, office building, and apartment; and manages rest areas. PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk reported revenue of 29.9T IDR in FY2025 versus 15.2T IDR in FY2021, a compound +18.5%/yr. Reported net income was 3.7T IDR in FY2025, compounding +43.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +9.4 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.8 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Infrastructure Operations · 68 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings 001965 | ¥9.36 | ¥10.25 | +10% |
| Jiangsu Expressway Company 600377 | ¥12.01 | ¥14.47 | +20% |
| Shandong Hi-speed Company 600350 | ¥10.87 | ¥8.68 | -20% |
| Impulsora del Desarrollo y el Empleo en América Latina, S.A. IDEALB1 | 43.00 MXN | 33.24 MXN | -23% |
| Promotora y Operadora de Infraestructura, S. A. B. de C. V. PINFRA | 281.25 MXN | 945.00 MXN | +236% |
| Motiva Infraestrutura de Mobilidade S.A MOTV3 | R$14.03 | R$29.97 | +114% |
| Zhejiang Expressway Co 0576 | HK$6.26 | HK$18.50 | +196% |
| Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co 000429 | ¥13.16 | ¥13.79 | +5% |
| Anhui Expressway Company 600012 | ¥16.50 | ¥14.90 | -10% |
| Shenzhen Expressway Corporation 600548 | ¥8.37 | ¥9.16 | +9% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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