ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of ITC Properties Group Ltd HK$4.09, price HK$2.47, upside +65.6%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1830 – HK$2.88 · fair‑value band HK$2.11 – HK$5.14 · the HK$2.47 price screens below the HK$4.09 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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ITC Properties Group Limited, an investment holding company, primarily engages in the property development and investment activities in the Hong Kong, Macau, the United Kingdom, People's Republic of China, Canada, and internationally. It operates through Property, Hotel and Leisure, Securities Investments, and Finance segments.
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ITC Properties Group Limited, an investment holding company, primarily engages in the property development and investment activities in the Hong Kong, Macau, the United Kingdom, People's Republic of China, Canada, and internationally. It operates through Property, Hotel and Leisure, Securities Investments, and Finance segments. The company is also involved in the investment, development, and sale of properties; investment in and management of hotels; trading and investment of securities; and provision of loan financing, and management services. In addition, it engages in the money lending business and corporate secretarial services. ITC Properties Group Limited was incorporated in 1994 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199) currently trades at HK$2.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.09, implying the stock looks roughly 39.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$3.90 per share, and 5 of the 7 models we run sit above the HK$2.47 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.33, and 2 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$2.11 (bear) to HK$5.14 (bull), the price of HK$2.47 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
ITC Properties Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$398M in FY2025 versus HK$262M in FY2021, a compound +11.0%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$813M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$2.6B (≈ $333M) · P/S ratio 6.73 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.4700 · Net margin −111% · Return on equity −22.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.5% · Operating margin −1,370% · Revenue (TTM) HK$388M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 1,054% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 66%, 0199 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$2.11Fair Value HK$4.09Bull HK$5.14
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.65/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+258.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +21.1% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−201.4% (2020) → −138.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.3% a year for the price.
Compare ITC Properties Group Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 168 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+64% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−111% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−24% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ITC Properties Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0199
Frequently asked questions
Is ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.09 versus a price of HK$2.47, about +66% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0199?
Our model-based fair value for ITC Properties Group Ltd is HK$4.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.47.
What is the quality score of 0199?
ITC Properties Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$4.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.11, optimistic scenario HK$5.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ITC Properties Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$4.09, about +66% upside versus a price of HK$2.47 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.11, optimistic scenario HK$5.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199)?
ITC Properties Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$388M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ITC Properties Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +13.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0199 use?
Our models discount ITC Properties Group Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.20, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ITC Properties Group Ltd that is +13.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ITC Properties Group Ltd grew +13.0 % a year. The price currently implies +13.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ITC Properties Group Ltd (+13.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.02 %: that much free cash flow ITC Properties Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ITC Properties Group Ltd it is HK$4.09 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$2.47. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ITC Properties Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0199 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$2.47, fair value HK$4.09, a gap of about +66% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0199?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$4.09). For ITC Properties Group Ltd the two are HK$1.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ITC Properties Group Ltd worth?
The market values ITC Properties Group Ltd at about HK$2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.47; our models calculate a fair value of HK$4.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0199?
Our models span a range for ITC Properties Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$2.11, base HK$4.09, optimistic HK$5.14 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$2.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199)?
Balance-sheet figures for ITC Properties Group Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −22.5%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0199 from its 52-week high?
ITC Properties Group Ltd trades at HK$2.47, about 14% below its 52-week high of HK$2.88 and 1,054% above the low of HK$0.2140 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$4.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ITC Properties Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ITC Properties Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$2.47, calculated fair value HK$4.09 (+66%), Quality Score 60/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0199 calculated?
We run ITC Properties Group Ltd through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$4.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. ITC Properties Group Ltd currently trades 66 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$2.47. Our model-based fair value is HK$4.09, about +66% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ITC Properties Group Ltd right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$2.11 to HK$5.14) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of ITC Properties Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199)?
The market capitalisation of ITC Properties Group Ltd is HK$2.6B (≈ $333M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ITC Properties Group Ltd is 6.73 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199)?
Earnings per share at ITC Properties Group Ltd are HK$−0.4700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199)?
The net margin of ITC Properties Group Ltd is −111% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ITC Properties Group Ltd is −22.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ITC Properties Group Ltd is −6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199)?
The operating margin of ITC Properties Group Ltd is −1,370% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199)?
Revenue at ITC Properties Group Ltd is growing −23.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199)?
Earnings per share at ITC Properties Group Ltd are growing −77.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ITC Properties Group Ltd (0199) carry?
The net debt of ITC Properties Group Ltd is HK$889M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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