ITC Properties Group (0199) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$2.6B
Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 2, 2026, revised from HK$0.9600 to HK$0.8400 (−12.5%) since Jul 1, 2026. Share price +25.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 70% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.4000 to HK$1.33). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1830 – HK$2.85 · fair‑value band HK$0.4000 – HK$1.33 · the HK$2.80 price screens above the HK$0.8400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
Analysis
ITC Properties Group (0199) currently trades at HK$2.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.8400, implying the stock looks roughly 70.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$388M. Revenue declined 23.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -22.5%. Net debt stands at HK$889M. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.4000 (bear case) to HK$1.33 (bull case); at HK$2.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -62% fair-value upside, at -70%, 0199 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$2.92) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.6600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ITC Properties Group Limited, an investment holding company, primarily engages in the property development and investment activities in the Hong Kong, Macau, the United Kingdom, People's Republic of China, Canada, and internationally. It operates through Property, Hotel and Leisure, Securities Investments, and Finance segments.
Full company description
ITC Properties Group Limited, an investment holding company, primarily engages in the property development and investment activities in the Hong Kong, Macau, the United Kingdom, People's Republic of China, Canada, and internationally. It operates through Property, Hotel and Leisure, Securities Investments, and Finance segments. The company is also involved in the investment, development, and sale of properties; investment in and management of hotels; trading and investment of securities; and provision of loan financing, and management services. In addition, it engages in the money lending business and corporate secretarial services. ITC Properties Group Limited was incorporated in 1994 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ITC Properties Group reported revenue of HK$398M in FY2025 versus HK$262M in FY2021, a compound +11.0%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$813M in FY2025.
0199 screens 70% overvalued. Compare with Marriott International, Inc →
Peer Group
Lodging · 168 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marriott International, Inc MAR | $369.05 | $135.64 | -63% |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings HLT | $328.48 | $123.67 | -62% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group IHG | $159.87 | $85.18 | -47% |
| Hyatt Hotels Corporation H | $191.00 | $47.69 | -75% |
| H World Group HTHT | $42.67 | $47.55 | +11% |
| Accor SA AC | €47.25 | €39.26 | -17% |
| The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL | ₹743.20 | ₹260.68 | -65% |
| Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH | $78.54 | $24.02 | -69% |
| Hanjin Kal, 180640 | 113,500 KRW | 36,890 KRW | -67% |
| Jabal Omar Development Company 4250 | 16.00 SAR | 11.64 SAR | -27% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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