Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust HK$1.39, price HK$0.57, upside +143.9%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.5700 – HK$2.91 · fair‑value band HK$0.7900 – HK$2.08 · the HK$0.5700 price screens below the HK$1.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust and its subsidiaries (together, the Group) are mainly engaged in the leasing of commercial properties in China.
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Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust and its subsidiaries (together, the Group) are mainly engaged in the leasing of commercial properties in China. Yuexiu REIT is a Hong Kong collective investment scheme constituted as a unit trust by the Trust Deed entered into between the Manager and HSBC Institutional Trust Services (Asia) Limited, as the Trustee of Yuexiu REIT (the Trustee) on 7 December 2005 (as amended by First Supplemental Deed dated 25 March 2008, Second Supplemental Deed dated 23 July 2010, Third Supplemental Deed dated 25 July 2012, Fourth Supplemental Deed dated 3 April 2020 and Fifth Supplemental Deed dated 28 May 2021) and authorized under section 104 of the Securities and Futures Ordinance subject to the applicable conditions imposed by Securities and Futures Commission from time to time. The address of its registered office is 17B, Yue Xiu Building, 160 Lockhart Road, Wanchai, Hong Kong. Yuexiu REIT was listed on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited on 21 December 2005. This interim condensed consolidated financial information is presented in Renminbi, unless otherwise stated. This interim condensed consolidated financial information was approved for issue by the Board of Directors of the Manager on 14 August 2005. Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust was incorporated in 1997 in Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405) currently trades at HK$0.5700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.39, implying the stock looks roughly 59.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$3.73 per share, and 13 of the 13 models we run sit above the HK$0.5700 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.7800, and 0 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.7900 (bear) to HK$2.08 (bull), the price of HK$0.5700 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust reported revenue of 1.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.4%/yr. Reported net income was −694M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$3.4B (≈ $436M) · P/E ex one-offs 8.9 · P/S ratio 1.87 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0600 · Dividend yield 9.1% · Net margin −38.0% · Return on equity −4.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 144%, 0405 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.7900Fair Value HK$1.39Bull HK$2.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.22/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.7% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
53.6% (2018) → 52.0% (2023)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.4% a year for the price.
Compare Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Office · 69 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+143.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−38.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)46.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−13.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)9.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.52× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Office median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0405
Frequently asked questions
Is Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.39 versus a price of HK$0.5700, about +144% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0405?
Our model-based fair value for Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust is HK$1.39 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.5700.
What is the quality score of 0405?
Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.39 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.7900, optimistic scenario HK$2.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.39, about +144% upside versus a price of HK$0.5700 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.7900, optimistic scenario HK$2.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405)?
Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust pay a dividend?
Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust would have to grow free cash flow by +35.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.8 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0405 use?
Our models discount Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust at 12.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.27, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust that is +35.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust grew +0.8 % a year. The price currently implies +35.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (+35.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.85 %: that much free cash flow Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust it is HK$1.39 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.5700. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 0405 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.5700, fair value HK$1.39, a gap of about +144% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0405?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.5700); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.39). For Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust the two are HK$0.8200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust worth?
The market values Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust at about HK$3.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.5700; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0405?
Our models span a range for Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust: cautious scenario HK$0.7900, base HK$1.39, optimistic HK$2.08 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.5700). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −4.4%, debt of 0.52 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0405 from its 52-week high?
Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust trades at HK$0.5700, about 37% below its 52-week high of HK$0.9045 and at the low of HK$0.5700 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value BXP, Inc, Vornado Realty Trust, MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A, Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.5700, calculated fair value HK$1.39 (+144%), Quality Score 47/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0405 calculated?
We run Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust currently trades 59 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.5700. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.39, about +144% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.7900). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.7900 to HK$2.08). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust
How large is the market capitalisation of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405)?
The market capitalisation of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust is HK$3.4B (≈ $436M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust is 8.9 (fiscal year 2025, the reported result was a loss).
What is the P/S ratio of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust is 1.87 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405)?
Earnings per share at Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust are HK$−0.0600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405)?
The dividend yield of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust is 9.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405)?
The net margin of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust is −38.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust is −4.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405)?
The operating margin of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust is 46.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405)?
Revenue at Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust is growing −13.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405)?
Earnings per share at Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust are growing −98.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (0405) carry?
The net debt of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust is 18.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 45.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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