Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (0831) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd HK$0.91, price HK$0.39, upside +133.3%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2120 – HK$0.6809 · fair‑value band HK$0.6800 – HK$1.13 · the HK$0.3900 price screens below the HK$0.9100 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Convenience Retail Asia Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates a chain of bakeries and pâtisseries in Hong Kong and the Mainland China. It operates through Bakery and Eyewear segments.
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Convenience Retail Asia Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates a chain of bakeries and pâtisseries in Hong Kong and the Mainland China. It operates through Bakery and Eyewear segments. The company operates a chain of bakeries under the Saint Honore brand name; pâtisserie under the Mon cher brand; and fast-fashion eyewear stores under the Zoff brand. In addition, it is involved in wholesale business providing bakery and festive products; food factory operator and wholesale; eyewear, bakery chain operator and leaseholder. Further, the company offers its products online through Cake Easy application. Convenience Retail Asia Limited was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Sha Tin, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (0831) currently trades at HK$0.3900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.9100, implying the stock looks roughly 57.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$2.07 per share, and 21 of the 22 models we run sit above the HK$0.3900 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.3800, and 1 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.6800 (bear) to HK$1.13 (bull), the price of HK$0.3900 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Convenience Retail Asia Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.4B in FY2025 versus HK$1.4B in FY2021, a compound +1.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$33.8M in FY2025, compounding −19.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$303M (≈ $38.7M) · P/E ratio 8.5 · P/S ratio 0.20 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0200 · Dividend yield 10.3% · Net margin 2.3% · Return on equity 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at 133%, 0831 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.6800Fair Value HK$0.9100Bull HK$1.13
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −11.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−5.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)10.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−15.9% vs −13.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 11.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Compare Convenience Retail Asia Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 74 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+133.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets2.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)2.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)10.3% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Convenience Retail Asia Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0831
Frequently asked questions
Is Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (0831) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.9100 versus a price of HK$0.3900, about +133% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0831?
Our model-based fair value for Convenience Retail Asia Ltd is HK$0.9100 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.3900.
What is the quality score of 0831?
Convenience Retail Asia Ltd has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (0831)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.9100 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.6800, optimistic scenario HK$1.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Convenience Retail Asia Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.9100, about +133% upside versus a price of HK$0.3900 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.6800, optimistic scenario HK$1.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (0831)?
Convenience Retail Asia Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Convenience Retail Asia Ltd pay a dividend?
Convenience Retail Asia Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (0831)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Convenience Retail Asia Ltd it is HK$0.9100 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.3900. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Convenience Retail Asia Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 0831 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.3900, fair value HK$0.9100, a gap of about +133% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0831?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.3900); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.9100). For Convenience Retail Asia Ltd the two are HK$0.5200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Convenience Retail Asia Ltd worth?
The market values Convenience Retail Asia Ltd at about HK$303M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.3900; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.9100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0831?
Our models span a range for Convenience Retail Asia Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.6800, base HK$0.9100, optimistic HK$1.13 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.3900). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0831?
Convenience Retail Asia Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.9100 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 1.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (0831)?
Balance-sheet figures for Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 5.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0831 from its 52-week high?
Convenience Retail Asia Ltd trades at HK$0.3900, about 8% below its 52-week high of HK$0.4250 and 32% above the low of HK$0.2947 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.9100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Convenience Retail Asia Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Convenience Retail Asia Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.3900, calculated fair value HK$0.9100 (+133%), Quality Score 64/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0831 calculated?
We run Convenience Retail Asia Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.9100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Convenience Retail Asia Ltd currently trades 57 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (0831)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was HK$0.3900. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.9100, about +133% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Convenience Retail Asia Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.6800). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (0831) come from?
Earnings per share at Convenience Retail Asia Ltd grew −13.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −12.5 %, EBIT margin +0.9 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (0831)?
The market capitalisation of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd is HK$303M (≈ $38.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (0831)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd is 0.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (0831)?
Earnings per share at Convenience Retail Asia Ltd are HK$0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (0831)?
The dividend yield of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd is 10.3% (payout 200%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (0831)?
The net margin of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd is 2.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (0831)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (0831)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (0831)?
The operating margin of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (0831)?
Revenue at Convenience Retail Asia Ltd is growing −1.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (0831)?
Earnings per share at Convenience Retail Asia Ltd are growing +67.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (0831) generate?
The free cash flow of Convenience Retail Asia Ltd is HK$173M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Convenience Retail Asia Ltd (0831) hold?
Convenience Retail Asia Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$3.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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