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China Qinfa Group Ltd (0866) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of China Qinfa Group Ltd HK$1.14, price HK$2.01, upside -43.1%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Energy · HK · ISIN KYG2159E1070

CQ Thin data Sep 27, 2026

China Qinfa Group Ltd

0866 · HK

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value HK$1.14 · Strongly overvalued (−43.1%)
!Quality 38/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −29.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -5.1% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/12)
!Narrow moat 32/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 16 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$4.27 HK$0.1196 Fair Value HK$1.14 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1196 – HK$4.27 · fair‑value band HK$0.5600 – HK$1.58 · the HK$2.01 price screens above the HK$1.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

China Qinfa Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the mining, purchase and sale, filtering, storage, and blending of coal in the People's Republic of China and Indonesia.

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China Qinfa Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the mining, purchase and sale, filtering, storage, and blending of coal in the People's Republic of China and Indonesia. It engages in goods transport and logistics, and charter hire activities; rental office activity; sale of machine and machine materials; and machine repairing, as well as shipping transportation business. The company was founded in 1996 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong. China Qinfa Group Limited operates as a subsidiary of Fortune Pearl International Limited.

Stock analysis

China Qinfa Group Ltd (0866) currently trades at HK$2.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.14, 43.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$0.8900 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$2.01 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.5700, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.5600 (bear) to HK$1.58 (bull), the price of HK$2.01 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.

China Qinfa Group Ltd reported revenue of 1.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound −20.3%/yr. Reported net income was −93.9M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$5.1B (≈ $648M) · P/E ratio 48.3 · P/S ratio 2.07 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100 · Net margin −5.1% · Return on equity 4.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.3% · Operating margin 19.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −43%, 0866 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.5600 Fair Value HK$1.14 Bull HK$1.58
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0075 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV HK$0.5600 HK$0.6500 HK$0.7300 74
ROIC Compounder HK$0.5600 HK$0.6500 HK$0.7300 72
EV/EBITDA HK$1.29 HK$1.75 HK$2.21 67
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV HK$0.5600 HK$0.6500 HK$0.7300 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT HK$0.5900 HK$0.8200 HK$1.05 66
EV/EBITDA HK$1.29 HK$1.75 HK$2.21 67
EV/Revenue HK$0.6000 HK$0.8900 HK$1.19 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.4300 HK$0.5700 HK$0.8500 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder HK$0.5600 HK$0.6500 HK$0.7300 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33

Profitability 8
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 32
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 30
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 12
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 96
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−175.6% (2020) → 11.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

0866 screens overvalued: fair value 43% below the price. Compare with China Shenhua Energy Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 88 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 38 · Below median
Fair Value upside −43.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 4.0% · Below median
Return on assets 2.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −5.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 19.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −38.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.69× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 48.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B 0.34× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.35× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 1.1× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 17
PAST (return on equity)16 · sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)66 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 51

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Coal Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 ¥48.03 ¥31.96 −33%
Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT ₹2,917 ₹891.11 −69%
Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 ¥25.83 ¥28.41 +10%
Yankuang Energy Group 600188 ¥19.76 ¥9.35 −53%
China Coal Energy Company 601898 ¥14.01 ¥14.62 +4%
Coal India Limited COALINDIA ₹426.10 ₹464.01 +9%
PT Bayan Resources Tbk., BYAN 12,100 IDR 4,698 IDR −61%
Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 ¥27.82 ¥20.72 −26%
PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk, DSSA 1,055 IDR 243.05 IDR −77%
Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 ¥15.35 ¥6.23 −59%

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China Qinfa Group Ltd · Fair Value
HK$1.14 −43%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Qinfa Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0866

Frequently asked questions

Is China Qinfa Group Ltd (0866) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.14 versus a price of HK$2.01, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0866?
Our model-based fair value for China Qinfa Group Ltd is HK$1.14 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.01.
What is the quality score of 0866?
China Qinfa Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Qinfa Group Ltd (0866)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.14 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.5600, optimistic scenario HK$1.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Qinfa Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.14, about −43% upside versus a price of HK$2.01 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.5600, optimistic scenario HK$1.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Qinfa Group Ltd (0866)?
China Qinfa Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Qinfa Group Ltd (0866)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Qinfa Group Ltd it is HK$1.14 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$2.01. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Qinfa Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 0866 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$2.01, fair value HK$1.14, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0866?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.14). For China Qinfa Group Ltd the two are HK$0.8650 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Qinfa Group Ltd worth?
The market values China Qinfa Group Ltd at about HK$5.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.01; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0866?
Our models span a range for China Qinfa Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.5600, base HK$1.14, optimistic HK$1.58 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$2.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0866?
China Qinfa Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 48.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$1.14 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 1.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Qinfa Group Ltd (0866)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Qinfa Group Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 4.0%, debt of 0.69 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0866 from its 52-week high?
China Qinfa Group Ltd trades at HK$2.01, about 53% below its 52-week high of HK$4.27 and 54% above the low of HK$1.30 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Qinfa Group Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Yankuang Energy Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Qinfa Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$2.01, calculated fair value HK$1.14 (−43%), Quality Score 38/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0866 calculated?
We run China Qinfa Group Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.14, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. China Qinfa Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Qinfa Group Ltd (0866)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was HK$2.01. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.14, about −43% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Qinfa Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.5600 to HK$1.58). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of China Qinfa Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of China Qinfa Group Ltd (0866)?
The market capitalisation of China Qinfa Group Ltd is HK$5.1B (≈ $648M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Qinfa Group Ltd (0866)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Qinfa Group Ltd is 2.07 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Qinfa Group Ltd (0866)?
Earnings per share at China Qinfa Group Ltd are HK$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 48.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Qinfa Group Ltd (0866)?
The net margin of China Qinfa Group Ltd is −5.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Qinfa Group Ltd (0866)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Qinfa Group Ltd is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Qinfa Group Ltd (0866)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Qinfa Group Ltd is 17.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Qinfa Group Ltd (0866)?
The operating margin of China Qinfa Group Ltd is 19.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Qinfa Group Ltd (0866)?
Revenue at China Qinfa Group Ltd is growing −38.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −21.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Qinfa Group Ltd (0866)?
Earnings per share at China Qinfa Group Ltd are growing −93.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Qinfa Group Ltd (0866) generate?
The free cash flow of China Qinfa Group Ltd is −1.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Qinfa Group Ltd (0866) carry?
The net debt of China Qinfa Group Ltd is 923M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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