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Nel ASA (0E4Q) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Nel ASA NOK 1.93, price NOK 2.09, upside -7.7%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · GB · Home Norway · ISIN NO0010081235

NA Thin data Sep 28, 2026

Nel ASA

0E4Q · LSE

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value kr 1.93 · Fairly valued (−7.7%)
!Quality 54/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +29.2 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -137.6% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2020 193.6%
✓Low debt
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

kr 20.99 kr 1.96 Fair Value kr 1.93 Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 1.96 – kr 20.99 · fair‑value band kr 1.45 – kr 2.41 · the kr 2.09 price screens above the kr 1.93 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

Nel ASA, a hydrogen company, provides solutions to produce, store, and distribute hydrogen from renewable energy in Norway and internationally. It operates through Nel Alkaline Electrolyser and Nel PEM Electrolyser segments. The Nel Alkaline Electrolyser segment supplies hydrogen production equipment based on alkaline water electrolysis technology.

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Nel ASA, a hydrogen company, provides solutions to produce, store, and distribute hydrogen from renewable energy in Norway and internationally. It operates through Nel Alkaline Electrolyser and Nel PEM Electrolyser segments. The Nel Alkaline Electrolyser segment supplies hydrogen production equipment based on alkaline water electrolysis technology. The Nel PEM Electrolyser segment supplies hydrogen production equipment based on proton exchange membrane (PEM) water electrolysis technology. The company was formerly known as DiaGenic ASA and changed its name to Nel ASA in October 2014. Nel ASA was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Oslo, Norway.

Stock analysis

Nel ASA (0E4Q) currently trades at kr 2.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 1.93, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.3%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 5.62 per share, and 6 of the 9 models we run sit above the kr 2.09 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 0.4000, and 3 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: kr 1.45 (bear) to kr 2.41 (bull), the price of kr 2.09 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Nel ASA reported revenue of 652M NOK in FY2020 versus 114M NOK in FY2016, a compound +54.5%/yr. Reported net income was 1.3B NOK in FY2020.

Key figures

Market cap 19.0B NOK (≈ $2.0B) · P/S ratio 20.3 · Net margin −138% · Return on equity −30.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −8.2% · Operating margin −134% · Revenue (TTM) 935M NOK · Revenue growth (YoY) −11.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −8%, 0E4Q screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear kr 1.45 Fair Value kr 1.93 Bull kr 2.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth-Adj P/E kr 3.94 kr 5.62 kr 7.31 65
Residual Income kr 0.7800 kr 1.07 kr 1.93 64
P/E Multiple kr 2.19 kr 2.92 kr 3.65 63
All 9 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd kr 0.9500 kr 6.59 kr 9.25 60
Lynch FV kr 2.92 kr 4.17 kr 5.42 58
PEG = 1.0 kr 2.92 kr 4.17 kr 5.42 55
Multiples
P/E Multiple kr 2.19 kr 2.92 kr 3.65 63
P/S Multiple kr 0.1100 kr 0.1400 kr 0.1800 58
P/B Multiple kr 1.77 kr 2.36 kr 2.95 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 0.3000 kr 0.4000 kr 0.6000 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income kr 0.7800 kr 1.07 kr 1.93 64
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E kr 3.94 kr 5.62 kr 7.31 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23

Profitability 58
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 14
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 17
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 50/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−48.3% (2016) → −62.6% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 790 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Below median
Fair Value upside −7.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −7.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −137.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −133.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −11.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.37× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 2.18× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
GE Vernova Inc GEV $950.49 $142.61 −85%
SIE SIE €271.90 €150.42 −45%
Eaton Corporation ETN $433.27 $173.12 −60%
Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH $970.37 $494.81 −49%
Emerson Electric Co EMR $155.10 $62.54 −60%
Illinois Tool Works Inc ITW $257.28 $153.33 −40%
Cummins Inc CMI $516.57 $359.11 −30%
AMETEK, Inc AME $250.74 $125.77 −50%
Rockwell Automation, Inc ROK $442.45 $139.31 −69%
Sandvik AB SAND kr 362.00 kr 193.59 −47%

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Nel ASA · Fair Value
kr 1.93 −8%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nel ASA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0E4Q

Frequently asked questions

Is Nel ASA (0E4Q) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 1.93 versus a price of kr 2.09, about −8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0E4Q?
Our model-based fair value for Nel ASA is kr 1.93 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 2.09.
What is the quality score of 0E4Q?
Nel ASA has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nel ASA (0E4Q)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 1.93 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 1.45, optimistic scenario kr 2.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nel ASA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 1.93, about −8% upside versus a price of kr 2.09 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario kr 1.45, optimistic scenario kr 2.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nel ASA (0E4Q)?
Nel ASA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 935M NOK (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Nel ASA (0E4Q)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nel ASA it is kr 1.93 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of kr 2.09. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nel ASA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, 0E4Q trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 2.09, fair value kr 1.93, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0E4Q?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 2.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 1.93). For Nel ASA the two are kr 0.1600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nel ASA worth?
The market values Nel ASA at about 19.0B NOK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is kr 2.09; our models calculate a fair value of kr 1.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0E4Q?
Our models span a range for Nel ASA: cautious scenario kr 1.45, base kr 1.93, optimistic kr 2.41 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price kr 2.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nel ASA (0E4Q)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nel ASA (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity −30.3%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0E4Q from its 52-week high?
Nel ASA trades at kr 2.09, about 46% below its 52-week high of kr 3.87 and 7% above the low of kr 1.96 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 1.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nel ASA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nel ASA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price kr 2.09, calculated fair value kr 1.93 (−8%), Quality Score 54/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0E4Q calculated?
We run Nel ASA through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 1.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Nel ASA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nel ASA (0E4Q)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 2.09. Our model-based fair value is kr 1.93, about −8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nel ASA right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Nel ASA

How large is the market capitalisation of Nel ASA (0E4Q)?
The market capitalisation of Nel ASA is 19.0B NOK (≈ $2.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nel ASA (0E4Q)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nel ASA is 20.3 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Nel ASA (0E4Q)?
The net margin of Nel ASA is −138% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nel ASA (0E4Q)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nel ASA is −30.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nel ASA (0E4Q)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nel ASA is −8.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nel ASA (0E4Q)?
The operating margin of Nel ASA is −134% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nel ASA (0E4Q)?
Revenue at Nel ASA is growing −11.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +29.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
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