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Futu Holdings (0FUT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Futu Holdings $225, price $102, upside +119.5%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 28, 2026
Futu Holdings
0FUT · LSEClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $224.77 · Strongly undervalued (+119.5%)
✓Quality 71/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +44.2 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 45.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 82/100
!The models disagree: range $46.21 to $483.43
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.17 – $196.60 · fair‑value band $46.21 – $483.43 · the $102.39 price screens below the $224.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Company profile
Futu Holdings Limited engages in the provision of digitalized securities brokerage and wealth management product distribution service in Hong Kong and internationally. It offers online financial services, including securities and derivative trades brokerage, margin financing and fund distribution services through its Futubull and Moomoo digital platforms.
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Futu Holdings Limited engages in the provision of digitalized securities brokerage and wealth management product distribution service in Hong Kong and internationally. It offers online financial services, including securities and derivative trades brokerage, margin financing and fund distribution services through its Futubull and Moomoo digital platforms. The company also provides financial information and online community services; online wealth management services under the Money Plus brand name through its Futubull and moomoo platforms, which provides its client access to mutual funds, private funds, bonds, structured products, and other wealth management products; market data and information services; and NiuNiu Community, an open forum for users and clients to share insights, ask questions, and exchange ideas. Futu Holdings Limited was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Admiralty, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Futu Holdings (0FUT) currently trades at $102.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $224.77, implying the stock looks roughly 54.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 25 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Scenario range: $46.21 (bear) to $483.43 (bull), the price of $102.39 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Futu Holdings reported revenue of HK$22.8B in FY2025 versus HK$7.1B in FY2021, a compound +33.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$11.3B in FY2025, compounding +41.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.4T · P/E ratio 0.2 · P/S ratio 0.08 · EPS (TTM) $5.96 · Net margin 49.6% · Return on equity 27.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% · Operating margin 64.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 120%, 0FUT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.2500 to $13.32). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $46.21
Fair Value $224.77
Bull $483.43
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.51 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF
$6.41
$13.32
$24.92
69
Owner Earnings
$1.84
$4.27
$9.58
65
5Y P/E Exit
$2.59
$4.49
$6.85
65
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
$1.84
$4.27
$9.58
65
5Y P/E Exit
$2.59
$4.49
$6.85
65
10Y P/E Exit
$3.81
$6.50
$10.41
58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.7100
$4.97
$6.97
59
Lynch FV
$2.57
$3.67
$4.77
57
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.1900
$0.4200
$0.7000
61
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.1900
$0.3400
$0.4300
62
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$1.02
$1.36
$1.70
63
P/B Multiple
$0.3900
$0.5200
$0.6500
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.1800
$0.2500
$0.3700
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$6.41
$13.32
$24.92
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.7300
$1.16
$2.99
62
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
71/100
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Profitability
51
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
81
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
15
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
21
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
77
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+68.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.2%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+40.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+40.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.45% → 62%
2025 sits 160% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in HKD, Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.0% a year for the price and +3.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+3.0%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+7.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+6.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.3%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS | $188.08 | $314.07 | +67% |
| The Goldman Sachs Group GS | $900.36 | $766.86 | −15% |
| The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW | $97.74 | $118.07 | +21% |
| Interactive Brokers Group IBKR | $89.24 | $23.12 | −74% |
| Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD | $116.22 | $47.77 | −59% |
| Macquarie Group MQG | A$245.63 | A$80.51 | −67% |
| CITIC Securities Company 600030 | ¥26.29 | ¥18.35 | −30% |
| Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 | ¥17.21 | ¥19.35 | +12% |
| East Money Information Co 300059 | ¥18.28 | ¥4.94 | −73% |
| Nomura Holdings NMR | $9.91 | $10.19 | +3% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Futu Holdings (0FUT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $224.77 versus a price of $102.39, about +120% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0FUT?
Our model-based fair value for Futu Holdings is $224.77 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $102.39.
What is the quality score of 0FUT?
Futu Holdings has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Futu Holdings (0FUT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $224.77 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $46.21, optimistic scenario $483.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Futu Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $224.77, about +120% upside versus a price of $102.39 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $46.21, optimistic scenario $483.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Futu Holdings (0FUT)?
Futu Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$22.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Futu Holdings (0FUT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Futu Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +7.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +33.9 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0FUT use?
Our models discount Futu Holdings at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Futu Holdings that is +7.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Futu Holdings (0FUT) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Futu Holdings grew +33.9 % a year. The price currently implies +7.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of Futu Holdings (0FUT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.52 %: that much free cash flow Futu Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Futu Holdings (0FUT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Futu Holdings it is $224.77 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $102.39. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Futu Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, 0FUT trades below its calculated fair value: price $102.39, fair value $224.77, a gap of about +120% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0FUT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($102.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($224.77). For Futu Holdings the two are $122.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Futu Holdings worth?
The market values Futu Holdings at about $1.4T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $102.39; our models calculate a fair value of $224.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0FUT?
Our models span a range for Futu Holdings: cautious scenario $46.21, base $224.77, optimistic $483.43 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $102.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0FUT from its 52-week high?
Futu Holdings trades at $102.39, about 48% below its 52-week high of $196.60 and 13% above the low of $90.85 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $224.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Futu Holdings?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Futu Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $102.39, calculated fair value $224.77 (+120%), Quality Score 71/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0FUT calculated?
We run Futu Holdings through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $224.77, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Futu Holdings currently trades 54 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Futu Holdings (0FUT)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $102.39. Our model-based fair value is $224.77, about +120% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Futu Holdings right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (71/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The model range is unusually wide ($46.21 to $483.43). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Futu Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Futu Holdings (0FUT)?
The market capitalisation of Futu Holdings is $1.4T. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Futu Holdings (0FUT)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Futu Holdings is 0.2 (as of Jul 24, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Futu Holdings (0FUT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Futu Holdings is 0.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Futu Holdings (0FUT)?
Earnings per share at Futu Holdings are $5.96 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Futu Holdings (0FUT)?
The net margin of Futu Holdings is 49.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Futu Holdings (0FUT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Futu Holdings is 27.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Futu Holdings (0FUT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Futu Holdings is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Futu Holdings (0FUT)?
The operating margin of Futu Holdings is 64.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Futu Holdings (0FUT)?
Revenue at Futu Holdings is growing +28.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +44.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Futu Holdings (0FUT)?
Earnings per share at Futu Holdings are growing −60.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Futu Holdings (0FUT) carry?
The net debt of Futu Holdings is HK$6.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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