Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (0HI3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. $45.75, price $64.66, upside -29.2%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.80 – $92.15 · fair‑value band $26.60 – $57.15 · the $64.66 price screens above the $45.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. develops medicines for the treatment of intractable diseases in the United States.
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Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. develops medicines for the treatment of intractable diseases in the United States. Its pipeline includes Plozasiran to reduce production of apolipoprotein C-III in Phase 3 studies; Zodasiran to reduce production of angiopoietin-like protein 3 in Phase 3 clinical trials; ARO-DIMER-PA, a dual functional RNAi molecule in a Phase 1/2a clinical trials; and ARO-PNPLA3, an investigational RNAi therapeutic in Phase 1 clinical trials. The company also develops ARO-INHBE, to reduce the hepatic expression of the INHBE gene and its secreted gene product, Activin E in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; ARO-ALK7 to silence adipocyte expression of the ACVR1C gene in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; ARO-RAGE to reduce production of the receptor for advanced glycation end products in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; and ARO-MAPT, an investigational RNAi-based therapy. In addition, it is developing ARO-C3 to reduce production of C3 in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; and ARO-CFB to reduce hepatic expression of CFB in a Phase 1/2a clinical trials. The company has collaboration and license Agreements with Glaxosmithkline Intellectual Property (No. 3) Limited; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited; Amgen Inc.; and Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Pasadena, California.
Stock analysis
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (0HI3) currently trades at $64.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $45.75, 29.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $50.01 per share, and 2 of the 13 models we run sit above the $64.66 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $11.75, and 11 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $26.60 (bear) to $57.15 (bull), the price of $64.66 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. reported revenue of $829M in FY2025 versus $138M in FY2021, a compound +56.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $8.6B · EPS (TTM) $−1.08 · Net margin −0.2% · Return on equity −42.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −23.9% · Operating margin −192% · Revenue (TTM) $622M · Revenue growth (YoY) −86.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 86% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −29%, 0HI3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $26.60Fair Value $45.75Bull $57.15
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+56.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +115.6% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−105.9% (2020) → 11.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+36.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−31.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.5% a year for the price and −33.4% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Industrials · 5353 stocks
Beats the sector median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−29.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−7.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−48.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−191.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−86.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrials median · lower = cheaper
P/B18.56× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)13.90× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF55.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 35
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 36
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (0HI3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $45.75 versus a price of $64.66, about −29% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0HI3?
Our model-based fair value for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. is $45.75 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $64.66.
What is the quality score of 0HI3?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (0HI3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $45.75 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $26.60, optimistic scenario $57.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $45.75, about −29% upside versus a price of $64.66 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $26.60, optimistic scenario $57.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (0HI3)?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $622M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (0HI3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. would have to grow free cash flow by +36.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +56.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0HI3 use?
Our models discount Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 1.27, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. that is +36.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (0HI3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. grew +56.6 % a year. The price currently implies +36.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (0HI3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (+36.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (0HI3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.37 %: that much free cash flow Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (0HI3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. it is $45.75 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $64.66. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0HI3 trades above its calculated fair value: price $64.66, fair value $45.75, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0HI3?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($64.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($45.75). For Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. the two are $18.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. worth?
The market values Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. at about $8.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $64.66; our models calculate a fair value of $45.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0HI3?
Our models span a range for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp.: cautious scenario $26.60, base $45.75, optimistic $57.15 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $64.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (0HI3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −42.4%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0HI3 from its 52-week high?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. trades at $64.66, about 30% below its 52-week high of $91.76 and 86% above the low of $34.75 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $45.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Samsung C&T Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $64.66, calculated fair value $45.75 (−29%), Quality Score 50/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0HI3 calculated?
We run Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $45.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (0HI3)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $64.66. Our model-based fair value is $45.75, about −29% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($57.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($26.60 to $57.15) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp.
How large is the market capitalisation of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (0HI3)?
The market capitalisation of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. is $8.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (0HI3)?
Earnings per share at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. are $−1.08. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (0HI3)?
The net margin of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. is −0.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (0HI3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. is −42.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (0HI3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. is −23.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (0HI3)?
The operating margin of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. is −192% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (0HI3)?
Revenue at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. is growing −86.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +50.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (0HI3)?
Earnings per share at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. are growing +9.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. (0HI3) carry?
The net debt of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Corp. is $507M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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