Exelon Corp. (0IJN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Exelon Corp. $28.72, price $40.79, upside -29.6%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $26.03 – $50.03 · fair‑value band $26.04 – $39.97 · the $40.79 price screens above the $28.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Exelon Corporation, a utility services holding company, engages in the energy distribution and transmission businesses in the United States. The company is involved in the purchase and regulated retail sale of electricity and natural gas; transmission and distribution of electricity; and distribution of natural gas to retail customers.
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Exelon Corporation, a utility services holding company, engages in the energy distribution and transmission businesses in the United States. The company is involved in the purchase and regulated retail sale of electricity and natural gas; transmission and distribution of electricity; and distribution of natural gas to retail customers. It serves residential, commercial, industrial, and public authorities and electric railroads customers. Exelon Corporation was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Exelon Corp. (0IJN) currently trades at $40.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.72, 29.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $48.66 per share, and 5 of the 14 models we run sit above the $40.79 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $14.80, and 9 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $26.04 (bear) to $39.97 (bull), the price of $40.79 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Exelon Corp. reported revenue of $24.3B in FY2025 versus $17.9B in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was $2.8B in FY2025, compounding +12.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $41.3B · P/E ratio 0.2 · P/S ratio 0.02 · EPS (TTM) $2.64 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 11.4% · Return on equity 9.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −30%, 0IJN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $26.04Fair Value $28.72Bull $39.97
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7736 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.19/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.5% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.4% vs 3.8%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 21%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 155 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−29.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.8% · Below median
Return on assets2.8% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)11.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)22.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.23× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)0.2× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)40· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)39· sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)38· sector 52
DIVIDEND (yield)79· sector 65
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Exelon Corp. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0IJN
Frequently asked questions
Is Exelon Corp. (0IJN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $28.72 versus a price of $40.79, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0IJN?
Our model-based fair value for Exelon Corp. is $28.72 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $40.79.
What is the quality score of 0IJN?
Exelon Corp. has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Exelon Corp. (0IJN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $28.72 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $26.04, optimistic scenario $39.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Exelon Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $28.72, about −30% upside versus a price of $40.79 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $26.04, optimistic scenario $39.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Exelon Corp. (0IJN)?
Exelon Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $24.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Exelon Corp. pay a dividend?
Exelon Corp. currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.97% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Exelon Corp. (0IJN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Exelon Corp. it is $28.72 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $40.79. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Exelon Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0IJN trades above its calculated fair value: price $40.79, fair value $28.72, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0IJN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($40.79); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($28.72). For Exelon Corp. the two are $12.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Exelon Corp. worth?
The market values Exelon Corp. at about $41.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $40.79; our models calculate a fair value of $28.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0IJN?
Our models span a range for Exelon Corp.: cautious scenario $26.04, base $28.72, optimistic $39.97 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $40.79). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0IJN?
Exelon Corp. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $28.72 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Exelon Corp. (0IJN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Exelon Corp. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.8%, debt of 1.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0IJN from its 52-week high?
Exelon Corp. trades at $40.79, about 18% below its 52-week high of $50.03 and 2% above the low of $40.13 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $28.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Exelon Corp.?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Exelon Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $40.79, calculated fair value $28.72 (−30%), Quality Score 45/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0IJN calculated?
We run Exelon Corp. through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $28.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Exelon Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Exelon Corp. (0IJN)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $40.79. Our model-based fair value is $28.72, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Exelon Corp. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($39.97). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Exelon Corp. (0IJN) come from?
Earnings per share at Exelon Corp. grew +3.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −3.9 %, EBIT margin +4.6 %, tax rate +3.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Exelon Corp.
How large is the market capitalisation of Exelon Corp. (0IJN)?
The market capitalisation of Exelon Corp. is $41.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Exelon Corp. (0IJN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Exelon Corp. is 0.02 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Exelon Corp. (0IJN)?
Earnings per share at Exelon Corp. are $2.64 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Exelon Corp. (0IJN)?
The dividend yield of Exelon Corp. is 4.0% (payout 61.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Exelon Corp. (0IJN)?
The net margin of Exelon Corp. is 11.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Exelon Corp. (0IJN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Exelon Corp. is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Exelon Corp. (0IJN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Exelon Corp. is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Exelon Corp. (0IJN)?
The operating margin of Exelon Corp. is 22.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Exelon Corp. (0IJN)?
Revenue at Exelon Corp. is growing +7.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Exelon Corp. (0IJN)?
Earnings per share at Exelon Corp. are growing −0.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Exelon Corp. (0IJN) generate?
The free cash flow of Exelon Corp. is −$2.3B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Exelon Corp. (0IJN) carry?
The net debt of Exelon Corp. is $49.4B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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