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Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Federal Realty Investment Trust $56.61, price $107, upside -47.2%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · GB · ISIN US3137451015

FR Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Federal Realty Investment Trust

0IL1 · LSE

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $56.61 · Strongly overvalued (−47.2%)
!Quality 52/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +9.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 38.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!4.2% dividend yield · Payout strained
✓Wide moat 75/100

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$127.62 $50.14 Fair Value $56.61 Jan 2018 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $50.14 – $127.62 · fair‑value band $23.97 – $84.83 · the $107.23 price screens above the $56.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Federal Realty Investment Trust is a recognized leader in the ownership, operation and redevelopment of high-quality retail-based properties. They are located primarily in major coastal markets and select underserved regions that have strong economic and demographic fundamentals.

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Federal Realty Investment Trust is a recognized leader in the ownership, operation and redevelopment of high-quality retail-based properties. They are located primarily in major coastal markets and select underserved regions that have strong economic and demographic fundamentals. Federal Realty's mission is to deliver long-term, sustainable growth through investing in communities where retail demand exceeds supply. This includes a portfolio of open-air shopping centers and mixed-use destinations"such as Santana Row, Pike & Rose, and Assembly Row, which together reflect the company's ability to create distinctive, high-performing environments that serve as vibrant destinations for their communities. Federal Realty's 104 properties include approximately 3,800 tenants in 29.0 million commercial square feet, and approximately 2,500 residential units. It is based in North Bethesda, Maryland. Federal Realty Investment Trust was incorporated in 1962 in Maryland.

Stock analysis

Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1) currently trades at $107.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $56.61, 47.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $101.01 per share, and 2 of the 19 models we run sit above the $107.23 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $29.06, and 17 of the 19 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $23.97 (bear) to $84.83 (bull), the price of $107.23 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Federal Realty Investment Trust reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $951M in FY2021, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was $411M in FY2025, compounding +12.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $9.3B · P/E ratio 0.4 · P/S ratio 0.12 · EPS (TTM) $3.29 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 32.1% · Return on equity 14.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −47%, 0IL1 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $23.97 Fair Value $56.61 Bull $84.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $40.41 $47.47 $64.68 76
Owner Earnings $26.79 $68.93 $130.12 72
FCF DCF $5.00 $36.03 $81.08 71
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $5.00 $36.03 $81.08 71
Owner Earnings $26.79 $68.93 $130.12 72
5Y Revenue Exit n/a n/a $9.56 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $27.04 $81.76 $145.31 71
5Y P/E Exit $15.05 $59.46 $105.69 66
10Y Revenue Exit n/a $2.29 >$9.16 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $18.09 $62.33 $120.96 63
10Y P/E Exit $10.64 $47.26 $91.57 59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $37.32 $112.58 $149.25 65
Lynch FV $23.97 $34.24 $44.52 61
PEG = 1.0 $23.97 $34.24 $44.52 57
Multiples
P/E Multiple $86.43 $115.25 $144.06 63
P/S Multiple $25.61 $34.14 $42.68 58
P/B Multiple $69.97 $93.29 $116.62 55
EV/EBIT $22.36 $48.43 $74.50 62
EV/EBITDA $51.83 $87.73 $123.63 65
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $21.69 $29.06 $43.37 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $5.94 $33.38 $70.86 71
Rev-Margin DCF n/a n/a $10.74 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income $40.41 $47.47 $64.68 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $70.71 $101.01 $131.32 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 75
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 25
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 56
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 82
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 45
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 53
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.1% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+10.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.2% vs 7.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 36%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.9% a year for the price and +2.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+6.2%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.9%

0IL1 screens overvalued: fair value 47% below the price. Compare with INLCM →

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Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Federal Realty Investment Trust Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0IL1

Frequently asked questions

Is Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $56.61 versus a price of $107.23, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0IL1?
Our model-based fair value for Federal Realty Investment Trust is $56.61 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $107.23.
What is the quality score of 0IL1?
Federal Realty Investment Trust has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $56.61 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.97, optimistic scenario $84.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Federal Realty Investment Trust stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $56.61, about −47% upside versus a price of $107.23 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $23.97, optimistic scenario $84.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1)?
Federal Realty Investment Trust reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Federal Realty Investment Trust pay a dividend?
Federal Realty Investment Trust currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.19% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Federal Realty Investment Trust would have to grow free cash flow by +23.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0IL1 use?
Our models discount Federal Realty Investment Trust at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 0.93, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Federal Realty Investment Trust that is +23.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Federal Realty Investment Trust grew +9.6 % a year. The price currently implies +23.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Federal Realty Investment Trust (+23.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.62 %: that much free cash flow Federal Realty Investment Trust produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Federal Realty Investment Trust it is $56.61 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $107.23. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Federal Realty Investment Trust stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0IL1 trades above its calculated fair value: price $107.23, fair value $56.61, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0IL1?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($107.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($56.61). For Federal Realty Investment Trust the two are $50.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Federal Realty Investment Trust worth?
The market values Federal Realty Investment Trust at about $9.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $107.23; our models calculate a fair value of $56.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0IL1?
Our models span a range for Federal Realty Investment Trust: cautious scenario $23.97, base $56.61, optimistic $84.83 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $107.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0IL1 from its 52-week high?
Federal Realty Investment Trust trades at $107.23, about 16% below its 52-week high of $127.62 and 17% above the low of $91.74 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $56.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Federal Realty Investment Trust?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value INLCM, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Federal Realty Investment Trust stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $107.23, calculated fair value $56.61 (−47%), Quality Score 52/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0IL1 calculated?
We run Federal Realty Investment Trust through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $56.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Federal Realty Investment Trust itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $107.23. Our model-based fair value is $56.61, about −47% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Federal Realty Investment Trust right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($84.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($23.97 to $84.83). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1) come from?
Earnings per share at Federal Realty Investment Trust grew +5.4 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.4 %, EBIT margin −2.0 %, tax rate −8.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +13.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Federal Realty Investment Trust

How large is the market capitalisation of Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1)?
The market capitalisation of Federal Realty Investment Trust is $9.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Federal Realty Investment Trust is 0.4 (as of Jul 24, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Federal Realty Investment Trust is 0.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1)?
Earnings per share at Federal Realty Investment Trust are $3.29 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1)?
The dividend yield of Federal Realty Investment Trust is 4.2% (payout 137%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1)?
The net margin of Federal Realty Investment Trust is 32.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Federal Realty Investment Trust is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Federal Realty Investment Trust is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1)?
The operating margin of Federal Realty Investment Trust is 34.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1)?
Revenue at Federal Realty Investment Trust is growing +10.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1)?
Earnings per share at Federal Realty Investment Trust are growing +153% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Federal Realty Investment Trust (0IL1) carry?
The net debt of Federal Realty Investment Trust is $5.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 16.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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