Macerich Co. (0JX5) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Macerich Co. $11.47, price $22.90, upside -49.9%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.23 – $26.66 · fair‑value band $2.35 – $11.47 · the $22.90 price screens above the $11.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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The Macerich Company is a fully integrated, self-managed, self-administered real estate investment trust (REIT). As a leading owner, operator, and developer of high-quality retail real estate in densely populated and attractive U.S.
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The Macerich Company is a fully integrated, self-managed, self-administered real estate investment trust (REIT). As a leading owner, operator, and developer of high-quality retail real estate in densely populated and attractive U.S. markets, Macerich's portfolio is concentrated in California, the Pacific Northwest, Phoenix/Scottsdale, and the Metro New York to Washington, D.C. corridor. Developing and managing properties that serve as community cornerstones, Macerich currently owns approximately 41 million square feet of real estate, consisting primarily of interests in 39 retail centers. The Macerich Company was incorporated in 1964 in Maryland and is based in Santa Monica, California.
Stock analysis
Macerich Co. (0JX5) currently trades at $22.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.47, 49.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $13.10 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $22.90 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $7.67, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.35 (bear) to $11.47 (bull), the price of $22.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Macerich Co. reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $841M in FY2021, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$193M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $5.8B · P/E ratio 1.3 · EPS (TTM) $0.1880 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin −18.9% · Return on equity −7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% · Operating margin 9.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −50%, 0JX5 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.35Fair Value $11.47Bull $11.47
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.47/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.3% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
29.0% (2020) → 16.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.6% a year for the price and +0.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Retail REITs” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Industrials · 5298 stocks
Beats the sector median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−48.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets1.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−17.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)9.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.52× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrials median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)1.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.31× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)5.53× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF21.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA21.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)59· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Macerich Co. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0JX5
Frequently asked questions
Is Macerich Co. (0JX5) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.47 versus a price of $22.90, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0JX5?
Our model-based fair value for Macerich Co. is $11.47 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.90.
What is the quality score of 0JX5?
Macerich Co. has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Macerich Co. (0JX5)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.47 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.35, optimistic scenario $11.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Macerich Co. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.47, about −50% upside versus a price of $22.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.35, optimistic scenario $11.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Macerich Co. (0JX5)?
Macerich Co. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Macerich Co. pay a dividend?
Macerich Co. currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.97% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Macerich Co. (0JX5)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Macerich Co. would have to grow free cash flow by +35.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0JX5 use?
Our models discount Macerich Co. at 12.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 2.06, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Macerich Co. that is +35.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Macerich Co. (0JX5) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Macerich Co. grew +5.3 % a year. The price currently implies +35.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Macerich Co. (0JX5) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Macerich Co. (+35.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Macerich Co. (0JX5)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.46 %: that much free cash flow Macerich Co. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Macerich Co. (0JX5)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Macerich Co. it is $11.47 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $22.90. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Macerich Co. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0JX5 trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.90, fair value $11.47, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0JX5?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.47). For Macerich Co. the two are $11.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Macerich Co. worth?
The market values Macerich Co. at about $5.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $22.90; our models calculate a fair value of $11.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0JX5?
Our models span a range for Macerich Co.: cautious scenario $2.35, base $11.47, optimistic $11.47 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $22.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0JX5?
Macerich Co. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 1.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.47 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 5.5, EV/EBITDA 21.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Macerich Co. (0JX5)?
Balance-sheet figures for Macerich Co. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −7.1%, debt of 2.52 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0JX5 from its 52-week high?
Macerich Co. trades at $22.90, about 14% below its 52-week high of $26.66 and 46% above the low of $15.73 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Macerich Co.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Samsung C&T Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Macerich Co. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $22.90, calculated fair value $11.47 (−50%), Quality Score 35/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0JX5 calculated?
We run Macerich Co. through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Macerich Co. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Macerich Co. (0JX5)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $22.90. Our model-based fair value is $11.47, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Macerich Co. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($2.35 to $11.47). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Macerich Co.
How large is the market capitalisation of Macerich Co. (0JX5)?
The market capitalisation of Macerich Co. is $5.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Macerich Co. (0JX5)?
Earnings per share at Macerich Co. are $0.1880 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 1.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Macerich Co. (0JX5)?
The dividend yield of Macerich Co. is 3.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Macerich Co. (0JX5)?
The net margin of Macerich Co. is −18.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Macerich Co. (0JX5)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Macerich Co. is −7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Macerich Co. (0JX5)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Macerich Co. is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Macerich Co. (0JX5)?
The operating margin of Macerich Co. is 9.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Macerich Co. (0JX5)?
Revenue at Macerich Co. is growing −6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Macerich Co. (0JX5)?
Earnings per share at Macerich Co. are growing +39.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Macerich Co. (0JX5) carry?
The net debt of Macerich Co. is $4.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 18.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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