Target Corp. (0LD8) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Target Corp. $108, price $155, upside -30.4%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $82.69 – $231.01 · fair‑value band $65.60 – $160.85 · the $155.31 price screens above the $108.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States. It offers apparel for women, men, young adults, kids, toddlers, and babies, as well as jewelry, accessories, and shoes; and beauty products, such as skin and bath care, cosmetics, hair care, oral care, deodorant, and shaving products.
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Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States. It offers apparel for women, men, young adults, kids, toddlers, and babies, as well as jewelry, accessories, and shoes; and beauty products, such as skin and bath care, cosmetics, hair care, oral care, deodorant, and shaving products. The company also provides food and beverage products comprising dry and perishable grocery, including snacks, candy, beverages, deli, bakery, meat, produce, and food service; electronics which includes video games and consoles, toys, sporting goods, entertainment, and luggage; bed and bath, home décor, school/office supplies, storage, small appliances, kitchenware, greeting cards, party supplies, furniture, lighting, home improvement, and seasonal merchandise; and household essentials, such as household cleaning, paper products, over-the-counter healthcare, vitamins and supplements, baby gear, and pet supplies. In addition, it sells merchandise through periodic design and creative partnerships, and shop-in-shop experience; and in-store amenities. The company sells its products through its stores; and digital channels, including Target.com. Target Corporation was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Stock analysis
Target Corp. (0LD8) currently trades at $155.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $108.04, 30.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $122.93 per share, and 3 of the 23 models we run sit above the $155.31 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $20.75, and 20 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $65.60 (bear) to $160.85 (bull), the price of $155.31 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Target Corp. reported revenue of $105B in FY2026 versus $106B in FY2022, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was $3.7B in FY2026, compounding −14.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $70.8B · P/E ratio 0.1 · EPS (TTM) $12.11 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 3.5% · Return on equity 22.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5% · Operating margin 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 88% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −30%, 0LD8 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $65.60Fair Value $108.04Bull $160.85
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.08 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.6% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.2% vs 5.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.4% a year for the price and +0.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Multiline Retail” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Industrials · 5266 stocks
Beats the sector median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−30.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)22.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)3.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)4.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.60× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrials median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)0.1× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)34· sector 35
PAST (return on equity)88· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)70· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)58· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Target Corp. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0LD8
Frequently asked questions
Is Target Corp. (0LD8) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $108.04 versus a price of $155.31, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0LD8?
Our model-based fair value for Target Corp. is $108.04 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $155.31.
What is the quality score of 0LD8?
Target Corp. has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Target Corp. (0LD8)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $108.04 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $65.60, optimistic scenario $160.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Target Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $108.04, about −30% upside versus a price of $155.31 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $65.60, optimistic scenario $160.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Target Corp. (0LD8)?
Target Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $106B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Target Corp. pay a dividend?
Target Corp. currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.92% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Target Corp. (0LD8)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Target Corp. would have to grow free cash flow by +21.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0LD8 use?
Our models discount Target Corp. at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 0.98, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Target Corp. that is +21.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Target Corp. (0LD8) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Target Corp. grew +2.3 % a year. The price currently implies +21.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Target Corp. (0LD8) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Target Corp. (+21.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Target Corp. (0LD8)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.03 %: that much free cash flow Target Corp. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Target Corp. (0LD8)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Target Corp. it is $108.04 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $155.31. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Target Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0LD8 trades above its calculated fair value: price $155.31, fair value $108.04, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0LD8?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($155.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($108.04). For Target Corp. the two are $47.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Target Corp. worth?
The market values Target Corp. at about $70.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $155.31; our models calculate a fair value of $108.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0LD8?
Our models span a range for Target Corp.: cautious scenario $65.60, base $108.04, optimistic $160.85 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $155.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0LD8?
Target Corp. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $108.04 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Target Corp. (0LD8)?
Balance-sheet figures for Target Corp. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 22.0%, debt of 0.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0LD8 from its 52-week high?
Target Corp. trades at $155.31, about 8% below its 52-week high of $169.71 and 88% above the low of $82.69 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $108.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Target Corp.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Samsung C&T Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Target Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $155.31, calculated fair value $108.04 (−30%), Quality Score 58/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0LD8 calculated?
We run Target Corp. through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $108.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Target Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Target Corp. (0LD8)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $155.31. Our model-based fair value is $108.04, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Target Corp. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($65.60 to $160.85) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Target Corp. (0LD8) come from?
Earnings per share at Target Corp. grew +6.6 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.2 %, EBIT margin +3.8 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Target Corp.
How large is the market capitalisation of Target Corp. (0LD8)?
The market capitalisation of Target Corp. is $70.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Target Corp. (0LD8)?
Earnings per share at Target Corp. are $12.11 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Target Corp. (0LD8)?
The dividend yield of Target Corp. is 2.9% (payout 37.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Target Corp. (0LD8)?
The net margin of Target Corp. is 3.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Target Corp. (0LD8)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Target Corp. is 22.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Target Corp. (0LD8)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Target Corp. is 10.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Target Corp. (0LD8)?
The operating margin of Target Corp. is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Target Corp. (0LD8)?
Revenue at Target Corp. is growing +6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Target Corp. (0LD8)?
Earnings per share at Target Corp. are growing −24.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Target Corp. (0LD8) carry?
The net debt of Target Corp. is $14.8B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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