GeoPark Ltd. (0MDP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of GeoPark Ltd. $11.48, price $10.79, upside +6.4%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.72 – $16.20 · fair‑value band $8.61 – $17.47 · the $10.79 price screens below the $11.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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GeoPark Limited operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, and other Latin American countries. It engages in the exploration, development, drilling, and production of oil and natural gas reserves.
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GeoPark Limited operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, and other Latin American countries. It engages in the exploration, development, drilling, and production of oil and natural gas reserves. The company was formerly known as GeoPark Holdings Limited and changed its name to GeoPark Limited in May 2009. GeoPark Limited was founded in 2002 and is based in Bogotá, Colombia.
Stock analysis
GeoPark Ltd. (0MDP) currently trades at $10.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.48, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $38.85 per share, and 8 of the 16 models we run sit above the $10.79 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.72, and 8 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $8.61 (bear) to $17.47 (bull), the price of $10.79 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
GeoPark Ltd. reported revenue of $493M in FY2025 versus $689M in FY2021, a compound −8.0%/yr. Reported net income was $49.7M in FY2025, compounding −5.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $556M · P/E ratio 0.1 · EPS (TTM) $1.66 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 22.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 30.9% · Operating margin 45.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 83% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at 6%, 0MDP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.61Fair Value $11.48Bull $17.47
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.08 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.2% vs 21.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.41% → 33%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Oil & Gas Exploration & Production” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Energy · 993 stocks
Beats the sector median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+8.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)22.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)11.7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)45.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.12× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Energy median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GeoPark Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0MDP
Frequently asked questions
Is GeoPark Ltd. (0MDP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.48 versus a price of $10.79, about +6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0MDP?
Our model-based fair value for GeoPark Ltd. is $11.48 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.79.
What is the quality score of 0MDP?
GeoPark Ltd. has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GeoPark Ltd. (0MDP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.48 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.61, optimistic scenario $17.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GeoPark Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.48, about +6% upside versus a price of $10.79 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $8.61, optimistic scenario $17.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GeoPark Ltd. (0MDP)?
GeoPark Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $484M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does GeoPark Ltd. pay a dividend?
GeoPark Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of GeoPark Ltd. (0MDP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GeoPark Ltd. it is $11.48 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $10.79. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is GeoPark Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0MDP trades below its calculated fair value: price $10.79, fair value $11.48, a gap of about +6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0MDP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.79); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.48). For GeoPark Ltd. the two are $0.6900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GeoPark Ltd. worth?
The market values GeoPark Ltd. at about $556M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $10.79; our models calculate a fair value of $11.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0MDP?
Our models span a range for GeoPark Ltd.: cautious scenario $8.61, base $11.48, optimistic $17.47 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $10.79). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0MDP?
GeoPark Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.48 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of GeoPark Ltd. (0MDP)?
Balance-sheet figures for GeoPark Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 22.6%, debt of 3.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0MDP from its 52-week high?
GeoPark Ltd. trades at $10.79, about 10% below its 52-week high of $11.97 and 83% above the low of $5.91 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GeoPark Ltd.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GeoPark Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $10.79, calculated fair value $11.48 (+6%), Quality Score 37/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0MDP calculated?
We run GeoPark Ltd. through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. GeoPark Ltd. currently trades 6 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GeoPark Ltd. (0MDP)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $10.79. Our model-based fair value is $11.48, about +6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GeoPark Ltd. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($8.61 to $17.47) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of GeoPark Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of GeoPark Ltd. (0MDP)?
The market capitalisation of GeoPark Ltd. is $556M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of GeoPark Ltd. (0MDP)?
Earnings per share at GeoPark Ltd. are $1.66 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of GeoPark Ltd. (0MDP)?
The dividend yield of GeoPark Ltd. is 2.2% (payout 14.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of GeoPark Ltd. (0MDP)?
The net margin of GeoPark Ltd. is 10.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GeoPark Ltd. (0MDP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GeoPark Ltd. is 22.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GeoPark Ltd. (0MDP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GeoPark Ltd. is 30.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GeoPark Ltd. (0MDP)?
The operating margin of GeoPark Ltd. is 45.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GeoPark Ltd. (0MDP)?
Revenue at GeoPark Ltd. is growing −6.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −22.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GeoPark Ltd. (0MDP)?
Earnings per share at GeoPark Ltd. are growing +44.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does GeoPark Ltd. (0MDP) generate?
The free cash flow of GeoPark Ltd. is −$125M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does GeoPark Ltd. (0MDP) carry?
The net debt of GeoPark Ltd. is $479M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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