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Heidelberg Materials AG (0MG2) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Heidelberg Materials AG €123, price €148, upside -16.8%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · GB · Home Germany · ISIN DE0006047004

HM Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Heidelberg Materials AG

0MG2 · LSE

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value €122.92 · Overvalued (−16.8%)
!Quality 55/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y +0.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.0% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt
✓7.5% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 46/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

€234.98 €35.40 Fair Value €122.92 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €35.40 – €234.98 · fair‑value band €81.56 – €181.07 · the €147.75 price screens above the €122.92 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Heidelberg Materials AG, together with its subsidiaries, produces and distributes cement, aggregates, ready-mixed concrete, and asphalt worldwide.

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Heidelberg Materials AG, together with its subsidiaries, produces and distributes cement, aggregates, ready-mixed concrete, and asphalt worldwide. The company provides cement products; natural stone aggregates, including sand and gravel; crushed aggregates comprising stone chippings and crushed stones; and ready-mixed concrete for use in the construction of tunnels or bridges, office buildings, or schools, as well as to produce precast concrete parts, such as stairs, ceiling elements, or structural components. It also offers asphalt; and trades in cement, clinker, secondary cementitious materials, solid, alternative fuels, other building materials, and additives. The company was formerly known as HeidelbergCement AG and changed its name to Heidelberg Materials AG in May 2023. Heidelberg Materials AG was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in Heidelberg, Germany.

Stock analysis

Heidelberg Materials AG (0MG2) currently trades at €147.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €122.92, 16.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €136.87 per share, and 1 of the 9 models we run sit above the €147.75 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €27.73, and 8 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: €81.56 (bear) to €181.07 (bull), the price of €147.75 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

Heidelberg Materials AG reported revenue of €17.6B in FY2020 versus €15.2B in FY2016, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was −€2.1B in FY2020.

Key figures

Market cap €9.6B · P/E ratio 0.1 · P/S ratio 0.45 · EPS (TTM) €8.92 · Dividend yield 7.5% · Net margin −12.2% · Return on equity 11.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −17%, 0MG2 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €81.56 Fair Value €122.92 Bull €181.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €99.14 €144.93 €226.23 76
Growth DCF €103.83 €148.18 €221.45 74
Rev-Margin DCF €85.77 €136.87 €198.31 69
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €99.14 €144.93 €226.23 76
5Y Revenue Exit €85.77 €134.74 €203.12 68
10Y Revenue Exit €86.77 €130.53 €180.93 64
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €21.22 €27.73 €34.36 67
DDM Multi-Stage €21.22 €28.99 €38.34 64
Multiples
EV/Revenue €85.88 €133.47 €181.07 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €33.46 €44.84 €66.92 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €103.83 €148.18 €221.45 74
Rev-Margin DCF €85.77 €136.87 €198.31 69

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30

Profitability 19
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 77
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 41
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 60
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 22
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 8
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 35/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
10.8% (2016) → −7.5% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
not computed

0MG2 screens overvalued: fair value 17% below the price. Compare with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Industrials · 5293 stocks

Beats the sector median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside −25.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 11.1% · Above median
Return on assets 5.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 9.0% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 17.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −0.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.59× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Industrials median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 0.1× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Heidelberg Materials AG · Fair Value
€122.92 −17%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Heidelberg Materials AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0MG2

Frequently asked questions

Is Heidelberg Materials AG (0MG2) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €122.92 versus a price of €147.75, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0MG2?
Our model-based fair value for Heidelberg Materials AG is €122.92 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €147.75.
What is the quality score of 0MG2?
Heidelberg Materials AG has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heidelberg Materials AG (0MG2)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €122.92 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario €81.56, optimistic scenario €181.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heidelberg Materials AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €122.92, about −17% upside versus a price of €147.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €81.56, optimistic scenario €181.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heidelberg Materials AG (0MG2)?
Heidelberg Materials AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €21.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Heidelberg Materials AG pay a dividend?
Heidelberg Materials AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Heidelberg Materials AG (0MG2)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heidelberg Materials AG it is €122.92 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €147.75. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Heidelberg Materials AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 0MG2 trades above its calculated fair value: price €147.75, fair value €122.92, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0MG2?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€147.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€122.92). For Heidelberg Materials AG the two are €24.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heidelberg Materials AG worth?
The market values Heidelberg Materials AG at about €9.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €147.75; our models calculate a fair value of €122.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0MG2?
Our models span a range for Heidelberg Materials AG: cautious scenario €81.56, base €122.92, optimistic €181.07 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €147.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0MG2?
Heidelberg Materials AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €122.92 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heidelberg Materials AG (0MG2)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heidelberg Materials AG (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 11.1%, debt of 0.59 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0MG2 from its 52-week high?
Heidelberg Materials AG trades at €147.75, about 37% below its 52-week high of €234.98 and 4% above the low of €141.90 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €122.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heidelberg Materials AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Samsung C&T Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heidelberg Materials AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €147.75, calculated fair value €122.92 (−17%), Quality Score 55/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0MG2 calculated?
We run Heidelberg Materials AG through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €122.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Heidelberg Materials AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heidelberg Materials AG (0MG2)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €147.75. Our model-based fair value is €122.92, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heidelberg Materials AG right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€81.56 to €181.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Heidelberg Materials AG

How large is the market capitalisation of Heidelberg Materials AG (0MG2)?
The market capitalisation of Heidelberg Materials AG is €9.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Heidelberg Materials AG (0MG2)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Heidelberg Materials AG is 0.45 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Heidelberg Materials AG (0MG2)?
Earnings per share at Heidelberg Materials AG are €8.92 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Heidelberg Materials AG (0MG2)?
The dividend yield of Heidelberg Materials AG is 7.5% (payout 123%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Heidelberg Materials AG (0MG2)?
The net margin of Heidelberg Materials AG is −12.2% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Heidelberg Materials AG (0MG2)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heidelberg Materials AG is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heidelberg Materials AG (0MG2)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heidelberg Materials AG is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heidelberg Materials AG (0MG2)?
The operating margin of Heidelberg Materials AG is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heidelberg Materials AG (0MG2)?
Revenue at Heidelberg Materials AG is growing −0.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Heidelberg Materials AG (0MG2)?
Earnings per share at Heidelberg Materials AG are growing +5.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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