ERG S.p.A. (0MHC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of ERG S.p.A. €6.71, price €22.66, upside -70.4%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €14.69 – €29.86 · fair‑value band €6.71 – €7.30 · the €22.66 price screens above the €6.71 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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ERG S.p.A., through its subsidiaries, produces energy through renewable sources in Italy, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Poland, Bulgaria, Sweden, Romania, the United States of America, and Spain. It also generates electricity through wind, solar, hydroelectric, and thermoelectric power plants, as well as natural gas cogeneration plants.
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ERG S.p.A., through its subsidiaries, produces energy through renewable sources in Italy, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Poland, Bulgaria, Sweden, Romania, the United States of America, and Spain. It also generates electricity through wind, solar, hydroelectric, and thermoelectric power plants, as well as natural gas cogeneration plants. The company was founded in 1938 and is based in Genoa, Italy. ERG S.p.A. operates as a subsidiary of Sq Renewables S.p.A.
Stock analysis
ERG S.p.A. (0MHC) currently trades at €22.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €6.71, 70.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €11.11 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the €22.66 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €5.43, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €6.71 (bear) to €7.30 (bull), the price of €22.66 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
ERG S.p.A. reported revenue of €974M in FY2020 versus €1.0B in FY2016, a compound −1.3%/yr. Reported net income was €108M in FY2020, compounding −3.1%/yr from FY2016.
Key figures
Market cap €3.7B · P/S ratio 4.82 · Net margin 11.1% · Return on equity 5.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2% · Operating margin 41.1% · Revenue (TTM) €776M · Revenue growth (YoY) +14.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −70%, 0MHC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €6.71Fair Value €6.71Bull €7.30
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.18/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.6%
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
19.5% (2016) → 15.9% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Renewable Energy” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Industrials · 5321 stocks
Beats the sector median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−70.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.0% · Below median
Return on assets3.3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)9.9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)41.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.12× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrials median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.39× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)5.43× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA11.5× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)75· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)20· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)44· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ERG S.p.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0MHC
Frequently asked questions
Is ERG S.p.A. (0MHC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €6.71 versus a price of €22.66, about −70% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0MHC?
Our model-based fair value for ERG S.p.A. is €6.71 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €22.66.
What is the quality score of 0MHC?
ERG S.p.A. has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ERG S.p.A. (0MHC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €6.71 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario €6.71, optimistic scenario €7.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ERG S.p.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €6.71, about −70% upside versus a price of €22.66 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €6.71, optimistic scenario €7.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ERG S.p.A. (0MHC)?
ERG S.p.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €776M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of ERG S.p.A. (0MHC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ERG S.p.A. it is €6.71 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €22.66. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ERG S.p.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0MHC trades above its calculated fair value: price €22.66, fair value €6.71, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0MHC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€22.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€6.71). For ERG S.p.A. the two are €15.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ERG S.p.A. worth?
The market values ERG S.p.A. at about €3.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €22.66; our models calculate a fair value of €6.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0MHC?
Our models span a range for ERG S.p.A.: cautious scenario €6.71, base €6.71, optimistic €7.30 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €22.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of ERG S.p.A. (0MHC)?
Balance-sheet figures for ERG S.p.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.0%, debt of 1.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0MHC from its 52-week high?
ERG S.p.A. trades at €22.66, about 8% below its 52-week high of €24.54 and 14% above the low of €19.88 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €6.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ERG S.p.A.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Dongkuk Structures & Construction Company, EcoBio Holdings, S-Energy Co, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ERG S.p.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €22.66, calculated fair value €6.71 (−70%), Quality Score 47/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0MHC calculated?
We run ERG S.p.A. through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €6.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ERG S.p.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ERG S.p.A. (0MHC)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €22.66. Our model-based fair value is €6.71, about −70% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ERG S.p.A. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€7.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band (€6.71 to €7.30), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of ERG S.p.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of ERG S.p.A. (0MHC)?
The market capitalisation of ERG S.p.A. is €3.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ERG S.p.A. (0MHC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ERG S.p.A. is 4.82 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of ERG S.p.A. (0MHC)?
The net margin of ERG S.p.A. is 11.1% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ERG S.p.A. (0MHC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ERG S.p.A. is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ERG S.p.A. (0MHC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ERG S.p.A. is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ERG S.p.A. (0MHC)?
The operating margin of ERG S.p.A. is 41.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ERG S.p.A. (0MHC)?
Revenue at ERG S.p.A. is growing +14.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ERG S.p.A. (0MHC)?
Earnings per share at ERG S.p.A. are growing −20.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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