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IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of IVU Traffic Technologies AG €20.28, price €25.70, upside -21.1%, quality 73 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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IT
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
IVU Traffic Technologies AG
0NCA · LSEOvervalued / MonitorQuality growthQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value €20.28 · Overvalued (−21.1%)
✓Quality 73/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +10.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.2% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
✓1.2% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 46/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.31 – €25.90 · fair‑value band €15.20 – €25.74 · the €25.70 price screens above the €20.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
IVU Traffic Technologies AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops, installs, maintains, and operates integrated IT solutions for buses and trains worldwide.
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IVU Traffic Technologies AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops, installs, maintains, and operates integrated IT solutions for buses and trains worldwide. The company offers IVU.suite, which provides service and resource planning, resource dispatching, fleet management, ticketing and on-board devices, information and analytics, and controlling services. It also provides IVU.consult consulting services; IVU.solutions that offer customized IT solutions; IVU.integration, which connects peripheral systems; IVU.xpress implementation process services; IVU.cloud, which enables full technical operations management for IVU.suite; and IVU.service that provides support services. The company was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Berlin, Germany.
Stock analysis
IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA) currently trades at €25.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €20.28, 21.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €18.74 per share, and 2 of the 24 models we run sit above the €25.70 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €3.59, and 22 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €15.20 (bear) to €25.74 (bull), the price of €25.70 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
IVU Traffic Technologies AG reported revenue of €150M in FY2025 versus €103M in FY2021, a compound +9.8%/yr. Reported net income was €13.3M in FY2025, compounding +9.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €446M · P/E ratio 0.4 · P/S ratio 0.04 · EPS (TTM) €0.5500 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 8.9% · Return on equity 15.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −21%, 0NCA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €15.20
Fair Value €20.28
Bull €25.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.1890 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€19.97
€29.53
€43.16
78
Growth DCF
€19.90
€28.69
€40.65
76
Residual Income
€4.93
€5.83
€8.07
76
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€19.97
€29.53
€43.16
78
Owner Earnings
€12.15
€17.42
€24.95
74
5Y Revenue Exit
€13.43
€18.44
€24.70
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
€12.54
€16.70
€21.43
74
5Y P/E Exit
€13.58
€18.74
€24.20
69
10Y Revenue Exit
€15.67
€20.81
€27.66
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
€15.33
€19.68
€25.28
67
10Y P/E Exit
€15.95
€21.01
€27.30
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€5.11
€19.62
€26.58
64
Lynch FV
€4.79
€6.84
€8.89
61
PEG = 1.0
€4.79
€6.84
€8.89
57
EPV
€8.58
€9.41
€10.11
70
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€7.89
€10.52
€13.15
63
P/S Multiple
€7.60
€10.14
€12.67
58
P/B Multiple
€7.23
€9.64
€12.05
55
EV/EBIT
€10.45
€13.10
€15.76
63
EV/EBITDA
€8.48
€10.48
€12.48
64
EV/Revenue
€9.58
€12.63
€15.67
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€2.68
€3.59
€5.35
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€19.90
€28.69
€40.65
76
Rev-Margin DCF
€13.43
€18.61
€25.00
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€4.93
€5.83
€8.07
76
ROIC Compounder
€9.09
€10.66
€12.43
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€6.93
€9.90
€12.87
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
73/100
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Profitability
48
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
90
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
91
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
74
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
72
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
78
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
87
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
86/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.9% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.1% vs 13.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 13%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.6% a year for the price.
0NCA screens overvalued: fair value 21% below the price. Compare with Saudi Arabian Oil Company →
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
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10 more Integrated Oil & Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 | 25.28 SAR | 20.14 SAR | −20% |
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $162.75 | $90.40 | −44% |
| Chevron Corporation CVX | $204.38 | $92.05 | −55% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥11.21 | ¥15.47 | +38% |
| TotalEnergies SE TTE | €74.51 | €70.97 | −5% |
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,168 | ₹865.31 | −26% |
| China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 | ¥48.03 | ¥31.96 | −33% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $127.06 | $91.42 | −28% |
| CNOOC Limited 0883 | HK$23.40 | HK$39.91 | +71% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PBR | $20.37 | $28.71 | +41% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €20.28 versus a price of €25.70, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0NCA?
Our model-based fair value for IVU Traffic Technologies AG is €20.28 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €25.70.
What is the quality score of 0NCA?
IVU Traffic Technologies AG has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €20.28 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €15.20, optimistic scenario €25.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the IVU Traffic Technologies AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €20.28, about −21% upside versus a price of €25.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €15.20, optimistic scenario €25.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA)?
IVU Traffic Technologies AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €155M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does IVU Traffic Technologies AG pay a dividend?
IVU Traffic Technologies AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.17% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, IVU Traffic Technologies AG would have to grow free cash flow by +5.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0NCA use?
Our models discount IVU Traffic Technologies AG at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.92, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For IVU Traffic Technologies AG that is +5.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at IVU Traffic Technologies AG grew +10.2 % a year. The price currently implies +5.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into IVU Traffic Technologies AG (+5.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.87 %: that much free cash flow IVU Traffic Technologies AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For IVU Traffic Technologies AG it is €20.28 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €25.70. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is IVU Traffic Technologies AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0NCA trades above its calculated fair value: price €25.70, fair value €20.28, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0NCA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€25.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€20.28). For IVU Traffic Technologies AG the two are €5.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is IVU Traffic Technologies AG worth?
The market values IVU Traffic Technologies AG at about €446M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €25.70; our models calculate a fair value of €20.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0NCA?
Our models span a range for IVU Traffic Technologies AG: cautious scenario €15.20, base €20.28, optimistic €25.74 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €25.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0NCA from its 52-week high?
IVU Traffic Technologies AG trades at €25.70, about 1% below its 52-week high of €25.90 and 47% above the low of €17.48 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €20.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to IVU Traffic Technologies AG?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is IVU Traffic Technologies AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €25.70, calculated fair value €20.28 (−21%), Quality Score 73/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0NCA calculated?
We run IVU Traffic Technologies AG through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €20.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. IVU Traffic Technologies AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €25.70. Our model-based fair value is €20.28, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with IVU Traffic Technologies AG right now?
A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA) come from?
Earnings per share at IVU Traffic Technologies AG grew +12.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.6 %, EBIT margin +2.0 %, tax rate −2.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of IVU Traffic Technologies AG
How large is the market capitalisation of IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA)?
The market capitalisation of IVU Traffic Technologies AG is €446M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of IVU Traffic Technologies AG is 0.4 (as of Jul 27, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of IVU Traffic Technologies AG is 0.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA)?
Earnings per share at IVU Traffic Technologies AG are €0.5500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA)?
The dividend yield of IVU Traffic Technologies AG is 1.2% (payout 54.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA)?
The net margin of IVU Traffic Technologies AG is 8.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of IVU Traffic Technologies AG is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of IVU Traffic Technologies AG is 11.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA)?
The operating margin of IVU Traffic Technologies AG is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA)?
Revenue at IVU Traffic Technologies AG is growing +13.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA)?
Earnings per share at IVU Traffic Technologies AG are growing +573% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA) hold?
IVU Traffic Technologies AG holds more cash than debt, €24.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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