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Nutrien Ltd (0NHS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Nutrien Ltd $70.56, price $70.23, upside +0.5%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 2, 2026
Nutrien Ltd
0NHS · LSENeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $70.56 · Fairly valued (+0.5%)
✓Quality 67/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +4.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓3.1% dividend yield · Well covered
!Narrow moat 44/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $41.43 – $96.92 · fair‑value band $34.15 – $95.87 · the $70.23 price screens below the $70.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
Company profile
Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. The company operates through four segments: Retail, Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate.
Show more
Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. The company operates through four segments: Retail, Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate. The Retail segment markets crop nutrients, crop protection products, seed, and merchandise, as well as provides agronomic application and financing services and solutions; and produces proprietary products, including proprietary crop nutrient, crop protection, and seed products. The Potash segment includes mining and processing of potash. The Nitrogen segment owns and operates ammonia production facilities that offers ammonia, urea, ammonium nitrate (UAN), urea solutions, nitric acid, and ammonium nitrate, as well as environmentally smart nitrogen and ammonium sulfate. The Phosphate segment manufactures and sells solid and liquid phosphate fertilizers, phosphate feed, and purified phosphoric acid, which is used in feed and industrial products. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.
Stock analysis
Nutrien Ltd (0NHS) currently trades at $70.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $70.56, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.5%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $76.50 per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the $70.23 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $27.66, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $34.15 (bear) to $95.87 (bull), the price of $70.23 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Nutrien Ltd reported revenue of $27.4B in FY2025 versus $27.5B in FY2021, a compound −0.1%/yr. Reported net income was $2.3B in FY2025, compounding −7.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $34.2B · P/E ratio 0.1 · EPS (TTM) $7.77 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 8.4% · Return on equity 9.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.7% · Operating margin 6.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at 0%, 0NHS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $34.15
Fair Value $70.56
Bull $95.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.23 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$34.91
$37.98
$44.98
76
FCF DCF
$40.60
$88.78
$185.20
74
EPV
$32.18
$39.67
$46.13
74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$40.60
$88.78
$185.20
74
Owner Earnings
$54.35
$118.71
$234.53
72
5Y Revenue Exit
$34.69
$76.50
$135.15
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
$52.48
$115.16
$197.33
72
5Y P/E Exit
$33.27
$73.40
$121.06
68
10Y Revenue Exit
$34.55
$75.38
$142.14
63
10Y EBITDA Exit
$47.98
$103.94
$195.75
64
10Y P/E Exit
$35.24
$73.09
$130.00
61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$25.62
$141.26
$196.02
63
Lynch FV
$39.35
$56.22
$73.09
61
PEG = 1.0
$39.35
$56.22
$73.09
57
EPV
$32.18
$39.67
$46.13
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$48.04
$64.06
$80.07
63
P/S Multiple
$48.04
$64.06
$80.07
58
P/B Multiple
$48.04
$64.06
$80.07
55
EV/EBIT
$52.66
$75.30
$97.94
65
EV/EBITDA
$62.78
$88.80
$114.81
67
EV/Revenue
$31.65
$51.76
$71.87
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$20.65
$27.66
$41.29
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$39.26
$83.82
$159.48
74
Rev-Margin DCF
$34.69
$75.01
$130.16
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$34.91
$37.98
$44.98
76
ROIC Compounder
$32.18
$39.67
$52.87
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$51.62
$73.75
$95.87
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
67/100
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Profitability
37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
82
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
90
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
58
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
59
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
98
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.8% a year
Revenue growth 37 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +20.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.22.2% vs 13.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 15%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 87% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.0% a year for the price and −3.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+2.0%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−2.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)−2.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)−1.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)−1.0%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| Corteva, Inc CTVA | $78.52 | $28.63 | −64% |
| Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 | ¥23.70 | ¥26.81 | +13% |
| CF Industries Holdings CF | $115.51 | $163.44 | +41% |
| SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company 2020 | 123.60 SAR | 150.65 SAR | +22% |
| Yara International ASA YAR | kr 433.10 | kr 662.97 | +53% |
| Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 | ¥27.56 | ¥50.49 | +83% |
| The Mosaic Company MOS | $22.42 | $25.77 | +15% |
| ICL Group ICL | $5.14 | $2.98 | −42% |
| Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL | ₹1,964 | ₹1,129 | −43% |
| Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 | ¥37.18 | ¥38.01 | +2% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Nutrien Ltd (0NHS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $70.56 versus a price of $70.23, about +0% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0NHS?
Our model-based fair value for Nutrien Ltd is $70.56 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $70.23.
What is the quality score of 0NHS?
Nutrien Ltd has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nutrien Ltd (0NHS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $70.56 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $34.15, optimistic scenario $95.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nutrien Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $70.56, about +0% upside versus a price of $70.23 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $34.15, optimistic scenario $95.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nutrien Ltd (0NHS)?
Nutrien Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $26.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Nutrien Ltd pay a dividend?
Nutrien Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.11% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nutrien Ltd (0NHS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nutrien Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +12.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.4 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0NHS use?
Our models discount Nutrien Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 1.06, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nutrien Ltd that is +12.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nutrien Ltd (0NHS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nutrien Ltd grew +4.4 % a year. The price currently implies +12.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nutrien Ltd (0NHS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nutrien Ltd (+12.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nutrien Ltd (0NHS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.96 %: that much free cash flow Nutrien Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nutrien Ltd (0NHS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nutrien Ltd it is $70.56 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $70.23. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nutrien Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 0NHS trades below its calculated fair value: price $70.23, fair value $70.56, a gap of about +0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0NHS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($70.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($70.56). For Nutrien Ltd the two are $0.3300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nutrien Ltd worth?
The market values Nutrien Ltd at about $34.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $70.23; our models calculate a fair value of $70.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0NHS?
Our models span a range for Nutrien Ltd: cautious scenario $34.15, base $70.56, optimistic $95.87 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $70.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0NHS from its 52-week high?
Nutrien Ltd trades at $70.23, about 15% below its 52-week high of $82.73 and 35% above the low of $52.01 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $70.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nutrien Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Corteva, Inc, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nutrien Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $70.23, calculated fair value $70.56 (+0%), Quality Score 67/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0NHS calculated?
We run Nutrien Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $70.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Nutrien Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nutrien Ltd (0NHS)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $70.23. Our model-based fair value is $70.56, about +0% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nutrien Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($34.15 to $95.87). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of Nutrien Ltd (0NHS) come from?
Earnings per share at Nutrien Ltd grew +10.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +26.7 %, EBIT margin −7.1 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nutrien Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Nutrien Ltd (0NHS)?
The market capitalisation of Nutrien Ltd is $34.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Nutrien Ltd (0NHS)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Nutrien Ltd is 0.1 (as of Jul 27, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What are the earnings per share of Nutrien Ltd (0NHS)?
Earnings per share at Nutrien Ltd are $7.77 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nutrien Ltd (0NHS)?
The dividend yield of Nutrien Ltd is 3.1% (payout 28.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nutrien Ltd (0NHS)?
The net margin of Nutrien Ltd is 8.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nutrien Ltd (0NHS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nutrien Ltd is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nutrien Ltd (0NHS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nutrien Ltd is 9.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nutrien Ltd (0NHS)?
The operating margin of Nutrien Ltd is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nutrien Ltd (0NHS)?
Revenue at Nutrien Ltd is growing +19.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nutrien Ltd (0NHS)?
Earnings per share at Nutrien Ltd are growing +12.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nutrien Ltd (0NHS) carry?
The net debt of Nutrien Ltd is $12.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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