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Data-driven stock valuation

The Mosaic Company (MOS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of The Mosaic Company stock $25.77, price $22.36, upside +15.3%, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials US

TM The Mosaic Company logo Some data Nov 6, 2026

The Mosaic Company

MOS · US
Undervalued, but in a downtrend

The stock costs 13% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $25.77 · Undervalued
Low debt
Quality 52/100
Loss over the last twelve months · -9.4% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 4.5% · excl. goodwill write-downs -8.6%
3.9% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Neutral coverage
Insiders sold $508,760 (6M)
Some data
Revenue last quarter 10% below a year ago.
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −14.3 %/yr in USD)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (4/13)
Narrow moat 16/100 · thin data
⟳ Cyclical

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Elevated sulfur input costs pressuring phosphate segment🚩Regulatory scrutiny of duopoly with Nutrien🚩State-backed rivals like OCP gaining share🚩Precision farming and biologicals reducing mineral fertilizer demand
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$69.21 $17.27 Fair Value $25.77 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $17.27 – $69.21 · fair‑value band $18.04 – $33.50 · the $22.36 price screens below the $25.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. It operates in three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes.

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The company owns and operates mines and production facilities, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, as well as concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and MicroEssentials, a value-added ammoniated phosphate product.

It also mines, processes, and sells potash to crop nutrient manufacturers, distributors, retailers, and to customers for industrial use; and owns and operates mines, chemical plants, crop nutrient blending and bagging facilities, port terminals and warehouses, which produce and sell concentrated phosphate and potash-based crop nutrients, and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients.

In addition, the company produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under the K-Mag brand; and purchases phosphate, potash, and nitrogen products to produce blended crop nutrients.

Further, it offers triple superphosphate, single superphosphate, and dicalcium phosphate; feed phosphate under the Biofos and Nexfos brands; potash for de-icing and as a water softener regenerant; and phosphogypsum.

The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts through its sales force. It also exports its products.

The company operates in the United States, Brazil, China, Canada, Paraguay, Argentina, Japan, Colombia, India, Australia, Peru, Mexico, Honduras, the Dominican Republic, Indonesia, and internationally. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

Stock analysis

The Mosaic Company (MOS) currently trades at $22.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $25.77, implying the stock looks roughly 13% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $29.70 per share, and 10 of the 16 models we run sit above the $22.36 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $10.27, and 6 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $18.04 (bear) to $33.50 (bull), the price of $22.36 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

The Mosaic Company reported revenue of $12.1B in FY2025 versus $12.4B in FY2021, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was $541M in FY2025, compounding −24.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $7.1B Mid · P/S ratio 0.60 · EPS (TTM) $−3.66 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin −9.4% · Return on equity −9.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin −2.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 15%, MOS screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $18.04 Fair Value $25.77 Bull $33.50
Price $22.36 · Upside +15.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $28.51 $28.58 $29.85 74
EPV $2.67 $5.09 $7.19 71
ROIC Compounder $2.67 $5.09 $7.19 68
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $11.57 $34.23 $45.28 63
Lynch FV $7.19 $10.27 $13.36 59
PEG = 1.0 $7.19 $10.27 $13.36 55
EPV $2.67 $5.09 $7.19 71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $7.83 $15.74 $24.07 64
DDM Multi-Stage $7.83 $12.49 $16.59 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple $21.69 $28.91 $36.14 63
P/S Multiple $21.69 $28.91 $36.14 58
P/B Multiple $27.14 $36.19 $45.24 55
EV/EBIT $18.93 $30.49 $42.05 64
EV/EBITDA $33.80 $50.31 $66.82 66
EV/Revenue $14.31 $27.19 $40.07 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $17.43 $23.35 $34.85 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $28.51 $28.58 $29.85 74
ROIC Compounder $2.67 $5.09 $7.19 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $18.04 $25.77 $33.50 65

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 26
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 66
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 26
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 45
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 80
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 31
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 29
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 91
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $508,760 and none bought.

  • SaleWalter F. Precourt IIISVP - Chief Admin Officer23,000 shares at $22.12$508,760Aug 19, 2026
  • BuyJody Lynne KuzenkoDirector685 shares at $25.53$17,488Nov 11, 2025

Plus 13 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.1% a year
Revenue growth 38 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+3.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−10.8% vs −4.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

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Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Note from the team Oct 28, 2026
AI conclusion: Thin evidence of a durable moat leaves the commodity fertilizer business exposed to low margins and negative free cash flow that signal limited pricing power.
Main risk: US officials could investigate or act against alleged collusion with Nutrien to limit supply and raise prices, which might force lower prices or reduced market power for Mosaic's fertilizers.
Bull case: Mosaic could integrate biologicals and precision technologies into its offerings to maintain relevance and capture higher-margin segments amid shifting demand patterns.
Bear case: If regulatory actions intensify competition and cheaper rivals plus efficiency technologies erode demand, Mosaic might face sustained lower volumes and margins in its phosphate and potash businesses.
Mosaic's phosphate segment continues to grapple with sharply higher sulfur input costs that have forced production cuts and weighed on recent results. Our models see the shares as undervalued, yet the upcoming earnings will show how deeply these pressures are biting. Will cost relief arrive in time to protect cash generation, or will the company need to adjust its capital plans further?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 162 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside +15.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets 2.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) −9.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −2.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −10.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 3.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.35× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.59× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.60× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 9.2× · Pricier than median
PEG 2.02× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)54 · sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 17
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)82 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)79 · sector 40

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Nutrien Ltd NTR $71.48 $83.09 +16% vs MOS
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 ¥23.15 ¥26.81 +16% vs MOS
Yara International ASA YAR kr 401.00 kr 419.83 +5% vs MOS
Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 ¥36.68 ¥38.01 +4% vs MOS
ICL Group ICL $4.68 $4.84 +3% vs MOS
CF Industries Holdings CF $119.39 $114.88 −4% vs MOS
UPL Limited UPL ₹534.90 ₹478.29 −11% vs MOS
Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 ¥26.22 ¥17.67 −33% vs MOS
Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL ₹1,824 ₹1,129 −38% vs MOS
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company SMG $64.71 $37.63 −42% vs MOS

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Mosaic Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MOS

Frequently asked questions

Is The Mosaic Company (MOS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $25.77 versus a price of $22.36, about +15% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MOS?
Our model-based fair value for The Mosaic Company is $25.77 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.36.
What is the quality score of MOS?
The Mosaic Company has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Mosaic Company (MOS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $25.77 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.04, optimistic scenario $33.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Mosaic Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $25.77, about +15% upside versus a price of $22.36 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $18.04, optimistic scenario $33.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Mosaic Company (MOS)?
The Mosaic Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $11.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does The Mosaic Company pay a dividend?
The Mosaic Company currently shows a dividend yield of 3.94% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of The Mosaic Company (MOS) and when is the ex-dividend date?
The Mosaic Company pays a dividend of $0.88 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.9%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 4, 2026, with payment on Dec 18, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2008. The payout ratio is 27.7% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 51.7%). Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of The Mosaic Company (MOS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Mosaic Company it is $25.77 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $22.36. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is The Mosaic Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MOS trades below its calculated fair value: price $22.36, fair value $25.77, a gap of about +15% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MOS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($25.77). For The Mosaic Company the two are $3.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Mosaic Company worth?
The market values The Mosaic Company at about $7.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $22.36; our models calculate a fair value of $25.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MOS?
Our models span a range for The Mosaic Company: cautious scenario $18.04, base $25.77, optimistic $33.50 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $22.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MOS?
The PEG ratio of The Mosaic Company is 2.02 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of The Mosaic Company (MOS)?
Balance-sheet figures for The Mosaic Company (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −9.0%, debt of 0.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MOS from its 52-week high?
The Mosaic Company trades at $22.36, about 27% below its 52-week high of $30.78 and 29% above the low of $17.27 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $25.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Mosaic Company?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, Yara International ASA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Mosaic Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $22.36, calculated fair value $25.77 (+15%), Quality Score 52/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MOS calculated?
We run The Mosaic Company through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $25.77 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. The Mosaic Company currently trades 13% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Mosaic Company (MOS)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $22.36. Our model-based fair value is $25.77, about +15% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Mosaic Company right now?
A fairly wide model range ($18.04 to $33.50) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of The Mosaic Company (MOS) come from?
Earnings per share at The Mosaic Company grew −1.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.7 %, EBIT margin −3.8 %, tax rate −3.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of The Mosaic Company

How large is the market capitalisation of The Mosaic Company (MOS)?
The market capitalisation of The Mosaic Company is $7.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The Mosaic Company (MOS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The Mosaic Company is 0.60 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The Mosaic Company (MOS)?
Earnings per share at The Mosaic Company are $−3.66. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The Mosaic Company (MOS)?
The dividend yield of The Mosaic Company is 3.9% (payout 27.7%, on adjusted earnings, reported 51.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The Mosaic Company (MOS)?
The net margin of The Mosaic Company is −9.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Mosaic Company (MOS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Mosaic Company is −9.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Mosaic Company (MOS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Mosaic Company is 8.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The Mosaic Company (MOS)?
The operating margin of The Mosaic Company is −2.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The Mosaic Company (MOS)?
Revenue at The Mosaic Company is growing −10.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The Mosaic Company (MOS)?
Earnings per share at The Mosaic Company are growing +240% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does The Mosaic Company (MOS) generate?
The free cash flow of The Mosaic Company is −$535M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does The Mosaic Company (MOS) carry?
The net debt of The Mosaic Company is $5.0B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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