The Mosaic Company (MOS) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $7.2B
The Mosaic Company
MOS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +11.7% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 25% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- Our model range runs from $21.69 (bear) to $33.50 (bull), base $28.92. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 52/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.82 – $69.80 · fair‑value band $21.69 – $33.50 · the $23.06 price screens below the $28.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
The Mosaic Company (MOS) currently trades at $23.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.92, implying the stock looks roughly 25.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, The Mosaic Company generated revenue of $12.4B at a net margin of 0.4%. Revenue grew 14.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.6%. Net debt stands at $5.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $21.69 (bear case) to $33.50 (bull case); at $23.06, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -13% fair-value upside, at 25%, MOS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($28.92) versus Economic Profit ($4.88). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. It operates in three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes.
Full company description
The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. It operates in three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company owns and operates mines and production facilities, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, as well as concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and MicroEssentials, a value-added ammoniated phosphate product. It also mines, processes, and sells potash to crop nutrient manufacturers, distributors, retailers, and to customers for industrial use; and owns and operates mines, chemical plants, crop nutrient blending and bagging facilities, port terminals and warehouses, which produce and sell concentrated phosphate and potash-based crop nutrients, and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients. In addition, the company produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under the K-Mag brand; and purchases phosphate, potash, and nitrogen products to produce blended crop nutrients. Further, it offers triple superphosphate, single superphosphate, and dicalcium phosphate; feed phosphate under the Biofos and Nexfos brands; potash for de-icing and as a water softener regenerant; and phosphogypsum. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts through its sales force. It also exports its products. The company operates in the United States, Brazil, China, Canada, Paraguay, Argentina, Japan, Colombia, India, Australia, Peru, Mexico, Honduras, the Dominican Republic, Indonesia, and internationally. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The Mosaic Company reported revenue of $12.1B in FY2025 versus $12.4B in FY2021, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was $541M in FY2025, compounding −24.1%/yr from FY2021.
Watch MOS: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- The Mosaic Co (MOS) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Sulfur-Driven Curtailments ...
- MOS Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Sales Miss on Lower Volumes
- Mosaic (MOS) Reports Q2 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say
- Mosaic (MOS) Q2 Earnings Top Estimates
Peer Group
Agricultural Inputs · 179 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corteva, Inc CTVA | $86.07 | $27.81 | -68% |
| Nutrien Ltd NTR | C$94.23 | C$81.69 | -13% |
| Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 | ¥24.93 | ¥21.26 | -15% |
| CF Industries Holdings CF | $119.19 | $161.00 | +35% |
| SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company 2020 | 122.90 SAR | 127.31 SAR | +4% |
| Yara International ASA YAR | kr 451.30 | kr 67.25 | -85% |
| Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 | ¥30.17 | ¥42.12 | +40% |
| Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 | ¥42.59 | ¥38.01 | -11% |
| Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL | ₹2,034 | ₹1,129 | -44% |
| UPL Limited UPL | ₹594.75 | ₹387.06 | -35% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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