ICL Group (ICL) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $6.5B
ICL Group
ICL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $2.98 to $4.29 (+44.1%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +4.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 19% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from $3.21 (bear) to $5.36 (bull), base $4.29. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 50/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.55 – $9.69 · fair‑value band $3.21 – $5.36 · the $5.31 price screens above the $4.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
ICL Group (ICL) currently trades at $5.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.29, implying the stock looks roughly 19.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, ICL Group generated revenue of $7.4B at a net margin of 3.5%. Revenue grew 14.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.1%. Net debt stands at $2.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.21 (bear case) to $5.36 (bull case); at $5.31, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -13% fair-value upside, at -19%, ICL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($3.33) versus Growth DCF ($0.2700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ICL Group Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty minerals and chemicals company worldwide. The company operates in four segments: Industrial Products, Potash, Phosphate Solutions, and Growing Solutions.
Full company description
ICL Group Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty minerals and chemicals company worldwide. The company operates in four segments: Industrial Products, Potash, Phosphate Solutions, and Growing Solutions. The Industrial Products segment produces bromine out of a solution that is a by-product of the potash production process, as well as bromine-based compounds; sells various grades of potash, salt, magnesium chloride, and magnesia products; and produces and markets phosphorous-based flame retardants and other phosphorus-based products. The Potash segment produces and sells potash, salt, magnesium, electricity, and magnesium alloys; as well as chlorine and sylvinite. The Phosphate segment uses phosphate commodity products to produce specialty products; sells phosphate-based fertilizers, as well as sulphuric and green phosphoric acid, and phosphate fertilizers; and offers phosphate salts and acids. It also develops and produces functional food ingredients and phosphate additives. The Growing Solutions segment develops, manufactures, markets, and sells fertilizers based primarily on nitrogen, potash, and phosphate, including water-soluble specialty, and controlled-release fertilizers, as well as secondary nutrients, bio-stimulants, soil conditioners, seed treatment products, and adjuvants. It also offers digital platforms and technological solutions for farmers and agronomists. The company serves pharmaceutical, food, oil and gas, de-icing, building and construction, oral care, paints and coatings, energy storage, water treatment, electronics, automotive, agriculture, textiles, tire manufacturing, and healthcare industries, as well as power plants and battery producers. It sells its products through marketing companies, agents, and distributors. The company was formerly known as Israel Chemicals Ltd. and changed its name to ICL Group Ltd in May 2020. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ICL Group reported revenue of $7.2B in FY2025 versus $7.0B in FY2021, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was $226M in FY2025, compounding −26.7%/yr from FY2021.
ICL screens 19% overvalued. Compare with Corteva, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ICL Group Ltd (ICL) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Industrial Products Performance ...
- ICL (ICL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- ICL outlines Elevate cost program targeting $350M annual EBITDA improvement by end of 2028
- ICL Group (ICL) Surpasses Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
Peer Group
Agricultural Inputs · 179 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corteva, Inc CTVA | $86.07 | $27.81 | -68% |
| Nutrien Ltd NTR | C$94.23 | C$81.69 | -13% |
| Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 | ¥24.93 | ¥21.26 | -15% |
| CF Industries Holdings CF | $119.19 | $161.00 | +35% |
| SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company 2020 | 122.90 SAR | 127.31 SAR | +4% |
| Yara International ASA YAR | kr 451.30 | kr 67.25 | -85% |
| Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 | ¥30.17 | ¥42.12 | +40% |
| Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 | ¥42.59 | ¥38.01 | -11% |
| Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL | ₹2,034 | ₹1,129 | -44% |
| UPL Limited UPL | ₹594.75 | ₹387.06 | -35% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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