ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd $3.92, price $5.30, upside -26.0%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.55 – $9.69 · fair‑value band $2.82 – $4.89 · the $5.30 price screens above the $3.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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ICL Group Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty minerals and chemicals company worldwide. The company operates in four segments: Industrial Products, Potash, Phosphate Solutions, and Growing Solutions.
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ICL Group Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty minerals and chemicals company worldwide. The company operates in four segments: Industrial Products, Potash, Phosphate Solutions, and Growing Solutions. The Industrial Products segment produces bromine out of a solution that is a by-product of the potash production process, as well as bromine-based compounds; sells various grades of potash, salt, magnesium chloride, and magnesia products; and produces and markets phosphorous-based flame retardants and other phosphorus-based products. The Potash segment produces and sells potash, salt, magnesium, electricity, and magnesium alloys; as well as chlorine and sylvinite. The Phosphate segment uses phosphate commodity products to produce specialty products; sells phosphate-based fertilizers, as well as sulphuric and green phosphoric acid, and phosphate fertilizers; and offers phosphate salts and acids. It also develops and produces functional food ingredients and phosphate additives. The Growing Solutions segment develops, manufactures, markets, and sells fertilizers based primarily on nitrogen, potash, and phosphate, including water-soluble specialty, and controlled-release fertilizers, as well as secondary nutrients, bio-stimulants, soil conditioners, seed treatment products, and adjuvants. It also offers digital platforms and technological solutions for farmers and agronomists. The company serves pharmaceutical, food, oil and gas, de-icing, building and construction, oral care, paints and coatings, energy storage, water treatment, electronics, automotive, agriculture, textiles, tire manufacturing, and healthcare industries, as well as power plants and battery producers. It sells its products through marketing companies, agents, and distributors. The company was formerly known as Israel Chemicals Ltd. and changed its name to ICL Group Ltd in May 2020. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel.
Stock analysis
ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL) currently trades at $5.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.92, implying the stock looks roughly 35.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $3.33 per share, and 5 of the 24 models we run sit above the $5.30 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.10, and 19 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $2.82 (bear) to $4.89 (bull), the price of $5.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd reported revenue of $7.2B in FY2025 versus $7.0B in FY2021, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was $226M in FY2025, compounding −26.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.8B · P/E ratio 25.2 · P/S ratio 0.80 · EPS (TTM) $0.2100 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity 5.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −26%, ICL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.82Fair Value $3.92Bull $4.89
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0168 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.8% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−7.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14% vs −8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 10%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +30.0% a year for the price and +0.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 180 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−26% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Below median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.29× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)25.2× · Pricier than median
P/B1.14× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.92× · Pricier than median
P/FCF52.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA6.5× · Cheaper than median
PEG9.44× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)73· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)20· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)86· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)71· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ICL
Frequently asked questions
Is ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.92 versus a price of $5.30, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ICL?
Our model-based fair value for ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd is $3.92 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.30.
What is the quality score of ICL?
ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.92 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.82, optimistic scenario $4.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.92, about −26% upside versus a price of $5.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.82, optimistic scenario $4.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL)?
ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd pay a dividend?
ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.53% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +33.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ICL use?
Our models discount ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.99, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd that is +33.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd grew +7.2 % a year. The price currently implies +33.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (+33.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.90 %: that much free cash flow ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd it is $3.92 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $5.30. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ICL trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.30, fair value $3.92, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ICL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.92). For ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd the two are $1.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd worth?
The market values ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd at about $6.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $5.30; our models calculate a fair value of $3.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ICL?
Our models span a range for ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd: cautious scenario $2.82, base $3.92, optimistic $4.89 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $5.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ICL?
ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.92 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 26.5 (reported 29.4). Other multiples: PEG 9.4, P/B 1.1, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 6.5.
What is the PEG ratio of ICL?
The PEG ratio of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd is 9.44 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL)?
Balance-sheet figures for ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.1%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ICL from its 52-week high?
ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd trades at $5.30, about 22% below its 52-week high of $6.76 and 12% above the low of $4.72 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Corteva, Inc, Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $5.30, calculated fair value $3.92 (−26%), Quality Score 50/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ICL calculated?
We run ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $5.30. Our model-based fair value is $3.92, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL) come from?
Earnings per share at ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd grew −1.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.2 %, EBIT margin −0.9 %, tax rate −1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL)?
The market capitalisation of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd is $6.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd is 0.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL)?
Earnings per share at ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd are $0.2100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL)?
The dividend yield of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd is 3.5% (payout 89.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL)?
The net margin of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd is 3.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd is 12.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL)?
The operating margin of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL)?
Revenue at ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd is growing +14.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL)?
Earnings per share at ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd are growing +39.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL) carry?
The net debt of ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd is $2.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 19.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026