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Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Vestas Wind Systems A/S DKK 511, price DKK 199, upside +156.3%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Vestas Wind Systems A/S
0NMK · LSEClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value kr 510.67 · Strongly undervalued (+156.3%)
✓Quality 62/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +4.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.4% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
✓6.0% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 47/100
!The models disagree: range kr 357.47 to kr 1,203
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 82.66 – kr 278.28 · fair‑value band kr 357.47 – kr 1,203 · the kr 199.23 price screens below the kr 510.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Vestas Wind Systems A/S engages in the design, manufacture, installation, and services of wind turbines the United States, Denmark, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Power Solutions and Service. The Power Solutions segment offers onshore and offshore wind power plants, wind turbines, development sites, etc.
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Vestas Wind Systems A/S engages in the design, manufacture, installation, and services of wind turbines the United States, Denmark, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Power Solutions and Service. The Power Solutions segment offers onshore and offshore wind power plants, wind turbines, development sites, etc. The Service segment engages in the sale of service contracts, spare parts, and related activities. Vestas Wind Systems A/S was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Aarhus, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK) currently trades at kr 199.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 510.67, implying the stock looks roughly 61.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 1,009 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the kr 199.23 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 97.09, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 357.47 (bear) to kr 1,203 (bull), the price of kr 199.23 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Vestas Wind Systems A/S reported revenue of €18.8B in FY2025 versus €15.6B in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was €778M in FY2025, compounding +55.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 33.7B DKK (≈ $5.1B) · P/S ratio 1.74 · EPS (TTM) kr −3.89 · Dividend yield 6.0% · Net margin 4.1% · Return on equity 23.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4% · Operating margin 3.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at 156%, 0NMK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 357.47
Fair Value kr 510.67
Bull kr 1,203
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
kr 936.69
kr 1,624
kr 2,851
76
Growth DCF
kr 920.34
kr 1,521
kr 2,530
74
5Y EBITDA Exit
kr 639.52
kr 955.71
kr 1,351
72
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
kr 936.69
kr 1,624
kr 2,851
76
Owner Earnings
kr 711.11
kr 1,200
kr 2,067
71
5Y Revenue Exit
kr 659.41
kr 998.50
kr 1,458
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
kr 639.52
kr 955.71
kr 1,351
72
5Y P/E Exit
kr 606.27
kr 884.17
kr 1,202
68
10Y Revenue Exit
kr 734.08
kr 1,093
kr 1,650
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
kr 733.52
kr 1,062
kr 1,558
66
10Y P/E Exit
kr 711.57
kr 1,009
kr 1,431
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
kr 198.25
kr 1,059
kr 1,467
63
Lynch FV
kr 292.24
kr 417.49
kr 542.74
61
PEG = 1.0
kr 292.24
kr 417.49
kr 542.74
57
EPV
kr 438.91
kr 482.37
kr 519.87
70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
kr 24.35
kr 48.53
kr 73.49
67
DDM Multi-Stage
kr 24.35
kr 41.94
kr 51.22
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
kr 306.12
kr 408.16
kr 510.20
63
P/S Multiple
kr 371.72
kr 495.62
kr 619.53
58
P/B Multiple
kr 195.63
kr 260.84
kr 326.05
55
EV/EBIT
kr 463.53
kr 563.49
kr 663.45
63
EV/EBITDA
kr 522.16
kr 641.66
kr 761.16
64
EV/Revenue
kr 527.50
kr 683.44
kr 839.38
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
kr 72.45
kr 97.09
kr 144.91
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
kr 920.34
kr 1,521
kr 2,530
74
Rev-Margin DCF
kr 659.41
kr 993.31
kr 1,445
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
kr 179.85
kr 255.35
kr 489.72
72
ROIC Compounder
kr 438.91
kr 482.37
kr 519.87
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
kr 357.43
kr 510.62
kr 663.80
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
62/100
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Profitability
40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
67
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
60
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
68
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
54
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
68
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
91
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
85
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
69/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −11.4% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+30.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+24.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.8% vs −16.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 6%
2025 sits 172% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 9.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.2% a year for the price and +5.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+13.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+7.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.1%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
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Frequently asked questions
Is Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 510.67 versus a price of kr 199.23, about +156% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0NMK?
Our model-based fair value for Vestas Wind Systems A/S is kr 510.67 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 199.23.
What is the quality score of 0NMK?
Vestas Wind Systems A/S has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 510.67 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 357.47, optimistic scenario kr 1,203. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vestas Wind Systems A/S stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 510.67, about +156% upside versus a price of kr 199.23 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 357.47, optimistic scenario kr 1,203. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK)?
Vestas Wind Systems A/S reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €19.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Vestas Wind Systems A/S pay a dividend?
Vestas Wind Systems A/S currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.95% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vestas Wind Systems A/S would have to grow free cash flow by +5.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0NMK use?
Our models discount Vestas Wind Systems A/S at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.98, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vestas Wind Systems A/S that is +5.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vestas Wind Systems A/S grew +4.9 % a year. The price currently implies +5.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vestas Wind Systems A/S (+5.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.54 %: that much free cash flow Vestas Wind Systems A/S produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vestas Wind Systems A/S it is kr 510.67 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 199.23. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vestas Wind Systems A/S stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0NMK trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 199.23, fair value kr 510.67, a gap of about +156% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0NMK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 199.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 510.67). For Vestas Wind Systems A/S the two are kr 311.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vestas Wind Systems A/S worth?
The market values Vestas Wind Systems A/S at about 33.7B DKK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 199.23; our models calculate a fair value of kr 510.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0NMK?
Our models span a range for Vestas Wind Systems A/S: cautious scenario kr 357.47, base kr 510.67, optimistic kr 1,203 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 199.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0NMK from its 52-week high?
Vestas Wind Systems A/S trades at kr 199.23, about 8% below its 52-week high of kr 217.70 and 65% above the low of kr 120.42 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 510.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vestas Wind Systems A/S?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vestas Wind Systems A/S stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 199.23, calculated fair value kr 510.67 (+156%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0NMK calculated?
We run Vestas Wind Systems A/S through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 510.67, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Vestas Wind Systems A/S currently trades 61 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 199.23. Our model-based fair value is kr 510.67, about +156% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vestas Wind Systems A/S right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 357.47). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (kr 357.47 to kr 1,203). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK) come from?
Earnings per share at Vestas Wind Systems A/S grew −22.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −12.6 %, EBIT margin −10.4 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Vestas Wind Systems A/S
How large is the market capitalisation of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK)?
The market capitalisation of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 33.7B DKK (≈ $5.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 1.74 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK)?
Earnings per share at Vestas Wind Systems A/S are kr −3.89. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK)?
The dividend yield of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 6.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK)?
The net margin of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 4.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 23.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK)?
The operating margin of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 3.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK)?
Revenue at Vestas Wind Systems A/S is growing +14.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK)?
Earnings per share at Vestas Wind Systems A/S are growing +15.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Vestas Wind Systems A/S (0NMK) hold?
Vestas Wind Systems A/S holds more cash than debt, €996M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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