Naturgy Energy Group (0NPV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Naturgy Energy Group €22.89, price €29.50, upside -22.4%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €17.20 – €29.99 · fair‑value band €14.87 – €30.29 · the €29.50 price screens above the €22.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Naturgy Energy Group, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the supply, liquefaction, regasification, transport, storage, distribution, and sale of gas. It operates through Distribution Networks and Energy Markets segments.
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Naturgy Energy Group, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the supply, liquefaction, regasification, transport, storage, distribution, and sale of gas. It operates through Distribution Networks and Energy Markets segments. The company is involved in the regulated gas and electricity distribution; management of transport infrastructure; trade and shipping of liquefied natural gas; supply, procurement, and management of other gas infrastructure; and management of gas pipeline. It also manages conventional thermal generation facilities; facilities and generation projects using wind energy, mini hydro, solar and cogeneration, as well as hydroelectric power; photovoltaic generation projects; and renewable electricity generation projects. In addition, the company is involved in renewable gas projects, such as biomethane and green hydrogen; supply of gas, electricity and services to end customers. It operates in Spain, Australia, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Panama, the rest of Latin America, and the rest of Europe. The company was formerly known as Gas Natural SDG, S.A. and changed its name to Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. in June 2018. Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. was incorporated in 1843 and is based in Madrid, Spain.
Stock analysis
Naturgy Energy Group (0NPV) currently trades at €29.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €22.89, 22.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €34.45 per share, and 7 of the 24 models we run sit above the €29.50 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €3.95, and 17 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €14.87 (bear) to €30.29 (bull), the price of €29.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Naturgy Energy Group reported revenue of €22.1B in FY2021 versus €23.2B in FY2017, a compound −1.2%/yr. Reported net income was €1.2B in FY2021, compounding −2.8%/yr from FY2017.
Key figures
Market cap €26.9B · P/S ratio 1.38 · Dividend yield 6.0% · Net margin 5.5% · Return on equity 22.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4% · Operating margin 23.9% · Revenue (TTM) €19.6B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −22%, 0NPV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €14.87Fair Value €22.89Bull €30.29
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+44.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
12.6% (2016) → 9.5% (2021)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Naturgy Energy Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0NPV
Frequently asked questions
Is Naturgy Energy Group (0NPV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €22.89 versus a price of €29.50, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0NPV?
Our model-based fair value for Naturgy Energy Group is €22.89 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €29.50.
What is the quality score of 0NPV?
Naturgy Energy Group has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Naturgy Energy Group (0NPV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €22.89 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €14.87, optimistic scenario €30.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Naturgy Energy Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €22.89, about −22% upside versus a price of €29.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €14.87, optimistic scenario €30.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Naturgy Energy Group (0NPV)?
Naturgy Energy Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €19.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Naturgy Energy Group pay a dividend?
Naturgy Energy Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.00% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Naturgy Energy Group (0NPV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Naturgy Energy Group it is €22.89 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of €29.50. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Naturgy Energy Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 0NPV trades above its calculated fair value: price €29.50, fair value €22.89, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0NPV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€29.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€22.89). For Naturgy Energy Group the two are €6.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Naturgy Energy Group worth?
The market values Naturgy Energy Group at about €26.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is €29.50; our models calculate a fair value of €22.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0NPV?
Our models span a range for Naturgy Energy Group: cautious scenario €14.87, base €22.89, optimistic €30.29 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price €29.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0NPV from its 52-week high?
Naturgy Energy Group trades at €29.50, about 2% below its 52-week high of €29.99 and 23% above the low of €24.05 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €22.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Naturgy Energy Group?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Atmos Energy Corporation, Uniper SE, NiSource Inc, The Hong Kong and China Gas Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Naturgy Energy Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price €29.50, calculated fair value €22.89 (−22%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0NPV calculated?
We run Naturgy Energy Group through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €22.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Naturgy Energy Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Naturgy Energy Group (0NPV)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €29.50. Our model-based fair value is €22.89, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Naturgy Energy Group right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€14.87 to €30.29) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Naturgy Energy Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Naturgy Energy Group (0NPV)?
The market capitalisation of Naturgy Energy Group is €26.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Naturgy Energy Group (0NPV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Naturgy Energy Group is 1.38 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Naturgy Energy Group (0NPV)?
The dividend yield of Naturgy Energy Group is 6.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Naturgy Energy Group (0NPV)?
The net margin of Naturgy Energy Group is 5.5% (fiscal year 2021). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Naturgy Energy Group (0NPV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Naturgy Energy Group is 22.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Naturgy Energy Group (0NPV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Naturgy Energy Group is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Naturgy Energy Group (0NPV)?
The operating margin of Naturgy Energy Group is 23.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Naturgy Energy Group (0NPV)?
Revenue at Naturgy Energy Group is growing +11.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Naturgy Energy Group (0NPV)?
Earnings per share at Naturgy Energy Group are growing +13.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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