Italgas S.p.A (IG) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · IT · Market cap €10.7B
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price −11.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (€3.88 to €15.44). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.79 – €10.72 · fair‑value band €3.88 – €15.44 · the €9.05 price screens above the €6.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Italgas S.p.A (IG) currently trades at €9.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €6.89, implying the stock looks roughly 23.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Italgas S.p.A generated revenue of €3.7B at a net margin of 18.4%. Revenue grew 1.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.5%. Net debt stands at €10.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €3.88 (bear case) to €15.44 (bull case); at €9.05, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -23% fair-value upside, at -24%, IG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€15.26) versus Economic Profit (€2.20). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Italgas S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of natural gas in Italy, Greece, and Other European Union countries. It operates through Gas distribution, Water Service, and Energy Efficiency segments. The company involved in metering activities and the transportation of gas to households, enterprises, etc.
Full company description
Italgas S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of natural gas in Italy, Greece, and Other European Union countries. It operates through Gas distribution, Water Service, and Energy Efficiency segments. The company involved in metering activities and the transportation of gas to households, enterprises, etc. It also engages in collection, adduction, and distribution of water for civil use, drains, and the purification of wastewater. The company operated a distribution network of 156,655 kilometers and water distribution network of 6,300 kilometers. Italgas S.p.A. was founded in 1837 and is based in Milan, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Italgas S.p.A reported revenue of €3.5B in FY2025 versus €2.1B in FY2021, a compound +13.7%/yr. Reported net income was €672M in FY2025, compounding +16.7%/yr from FY2021.
IG screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Italgas SpA (ITGGF) (Half Year 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth and ...
- Italgas Finds Gas Distribution’s Boring Superpower
- Is Italgas (BIT:IG) Still Attractive After A 63.5% One-Year Surge?
- Italgas SpA (MIL:IG) Q1 2026 Earnings Report Preview: What to Expect
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Gas · 103 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naturgy Energy Group NTGY | €28.84 | €35.80 | +24% |
| Atmos Energy Corporation ATO | $177.68 | $85.67 | -52% |
| NiSource Inc NI | $47.07 | $28.59 | -39% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €42.80 | €49.13 | +15% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$7.03 | HK$5.08 | -28% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹171.71 | ₹147.74 | -14% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥16.69 | ¥25.71 | +54% |
| Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL | ₹723.90 | ₹101.36 | -86% |
| UGI Corporation UGI | $35.84 | $27.13 | -24% |
| Southwest Gas Holdings SWX | $92.06 | $70.67 | -23% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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