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Italgas S.p.A (IG) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · IT · Market cap €10.7B

IS Italgas S.p.A IG · MI
Price€9.05
Fair Value€6.89
Upside-23.8%
Quality44/100
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Mixed Growth
Solidly profitable · 18.4% net margin
High debt · generates free cash flow
4.06% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
Wide moat 70/100
Evidence: High Range €3.88 – €15.44 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago

Share price −11.0% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 24% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The model range is unusually wide (€3.88 to €15.44). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€10.72 €3.79 Fair Value €6.89 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €3.79 – €10.72 · fair‑value band €3.88 – €15.44 · the €9.05 price screens above the €6.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Italgas S.p.A (IG) currently trades at €9.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €6.89, implying the stock looks roughly 23.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Italgas S.p.A generated revenue of €3.7B at a net margin of 18.4%. Revenue grew 1.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.5%. Net debt stands at €10.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €3.88 (bear case) to €15.44 (bull case); at €9.05, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -23% fair-value upside, at -24%, IG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €5.16 €17.07 80
Residual Income €4.32 €5.49 €15.60 76
Rev-Margin DCF €2.41 €10.16 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €4.30 €20.56 38
Owner Earnings €5.98 31
5Y Revenue Exit €2.64 €10.87 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €4.70 €20.04 €40.65 41
5Y P/E Exit €7.73 €18.20 38
10Y Revenue Exit €2.69 €12.45 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €2.48 €15.99 €39.22 37
10Y P/E Exit €6.58 €19.04 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €4.50 €26.23 €36.51 54
Lynch FV €7.42 €10.60 €13.79 50
PEG = 1.0 €7.42 €10.60 €13.79 46
EPV €0.5000 €2.20 €3.69 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €3.15 €6.55 €10.39 70
DDM Multi-Stage €3.15 €5.52 €6.87 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €9.92 €13.23 €16.54 63
P/S Multiple €6.47 €8.63 €10.79 58
P/B Multiple €8.43 €11.25 €14.06 55
EV/EBIT €6.37 €11.73 €17.10 53
EV/EBITDA €8.55 €14.64 €20.73 54
EV/Revenue €1.50 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €1.88 €2.52 €3.76 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €5.16 €17.07 80
Rev-Margin DCF €2.41 €10.16 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €4.32 €5.49 €15.60 76
ROIC Compounder €0.5000 €2.20 €3.69 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €10.68 €15.26 €19.84 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€15.26) versus Economic Profit (€2.20). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €3.7B
Revenue growth (YoY) +1.0%
Net margin 18.4%
Return on equity 19.5%
Free cash flow €538M FY2025
P/E ratio 14.8
More key figures
Operating margin 51.5%
EPS (TTM) €0.7100
Dividend yield 4.1%
EPS growth (YoY) -15.3%
Net debt €10.8B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 18
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 1
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 86
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 50
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 63
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Italgas S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of natural gas in Italy, Greece, and Other European Union countries. It operates through Gas distribution, Water Service, and Energy Efficiency segments. The company involved in metering activities and the transportation of gas to households, enterprises, etc.

Full company description

Italgas S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of natural gas in Italy, Greece, and Other European Union countries. It operates through Gas distribution, Water Service, and Energy Efficiency segments. The company involved in metering activities and the transportation of gas to households, enterprises, etc. It also engages in collection, adduction, and distribution of water for civil use, drains, and the purification of wastewater. The company operated a distribution network of 156,655 kilometers and water distribution network of 6,300 kilometers. Italgas S.p.A. was founded in 1837 and is based in Milan, Italy.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Italgas S.p.A reported revenue of €3.5B in FY2025 versus €2.1B in FY2021, a compound +13.7%/yr. Reported net income was €672M in FY2025, compounding +16.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€3.5B
Latest YoY
+41.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+17.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+11.3%
Avg. growth/yr (12Y)
+8.5%
Revenue +13.7%/yr
FY21 €2.1B
FY22 €2.2B
FY23 €1.8B
FY24 €2.5B
FY25 €3.5B
Net income +16.7%/yr
FY21 €363M
FY22 €407M
FY23 €440M
FY24 €479M
FY25 €672M

IG screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Italgas S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IG

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Gas · 103 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 44 · Below median
Fair Value upside −24% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 51% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.1% · Above median
Debt / equity 2.71× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B 3.22× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 3.30× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 22.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 11.3× · Pricier than median
PEG 2.82× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 2 · sector 24
FUTURE 5 · sector 0
PAST 78 · sector 34
HEALTH 0 · sector 84
DIVIDEND 81 · sector 68

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY €28.84 €35.80 +24%
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO $177.68 $85.67 -52%
NiSource Inc NI $47.07 $28.59 -39%
Uniper SE UN0 €42.80 €49.13 +15%
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 HK$7.03 HK$5.08 -28%
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL ₹171.71 ₹147.74 -14%
ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 ¥16.69 ¥25.71 +54%
Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL ₹723.90 ₹101.36 -86%
UGI Corporation UGI $35.84 $27.13 -24%
Southwest Gas Holdings SWX $92.06 $70.67 -23%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Italgas S.p.A (IG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €6.89 versus a price of €9.05, about −24% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IG?
Our model-based fair value for Italgas S.p.A is €6.89 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €9.05.
What is the quality score of IG?
Italgas S.p.A has a Quality Score of 44/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Italgas S.p.A (IG)?
Italgas S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.7B (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of IG?
The net profit margin of Italgas S.p.A is about 18.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 18.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Italgas S.p.A pay a dividend?
Italgas S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.06% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 18, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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