Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc stock $57.71, price $91.33, that is 36.8% below the price, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $47.87 – $93.73 · fair‑value band $50.22 – $74.92 · the $91.33 price screens above the $57.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiary, Southwest Gas Corporation, purchases, distributes, and transports natural gas for residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Arizona, Nevada, and California in the United States.
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The company offers tariff sales and transportation services. It also operates a pipeline transmission system, including an LNG storage facility. As of December 31, 2025, the company served approximately 2,281,000 customers with 1,224,000 in Arizona, 849,000 in Nevada, and 208,000 in California.
Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1931 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Stock analysis
Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX) currently trades at $91.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $57.71, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $89.00 per share, and 2 of the 15 models we run sit above the $91.33 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $22.65, and 13 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $50.22 (bear) to $74.92 (bull), the price of $91.33 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Southwest Gas Holdings Inc reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $3.7B in FY2021, a compound −14.8%/yr. Reported net income was $440M in FY2025, compounding +21.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.6B Mid · P/E ratio 22.2 · P/S ratio 5.04 · EPS (TTM) $4.11 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 22.7% · Return on equity 6.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 61 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −37%, SWX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$50.22Fair Value $57.71Bull$74.92
Price $91.33 · Downside -36.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.38 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $204,525 and none bought.
SaleJulie M. WilliamsSVP/Cont. Improvement and Opt.2,500 shares at $81.81$204,525Sep 28, 2026
SaleJustin L BrownPresident/Southwest Gas Corp.3,028 shares at $81.08$245,510Jan 9, 202610b5-1 plan
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.49/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +1.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.1% vs 7.3%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 24%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 149% above its own trend.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: As a pure-play regulated utility Southwest Gas enjoys stable network operations, yet negative free cash flow and high leverage stand out as its main weaknesses.
Main risk: Regulatory policies or prohibitions favoring electrification and decarbonization in Arizona, Nevada or California could reduce demand for natural gas distribution services and limit infrastructure investments.
Bull case: The company could expand its role supplying natural gas for data-center power generation and advance renewable natural gas or hydrogen blending to support decarbonization goals while preserving demand for its network.
Bear case: If electrification policies accelerate and electric utilities capture significant load, the company could face structurally lower throughput, stranded assets and reduced need for its regulated gas distribution infrastructure over the coming decade.
Southwest Gas now operates as a pure-play regulated utility following the Centuri divestiture, with a multi-billion capital plan focused on network upgrades and expansion. Rate cases in key states will determine how quickly those investments translate into earnings. Will regulatory outcomes support timely cost recovery or leave the company carrying more of the burden?
Compare Southwest Gas Holdings Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−36.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.8% · Below median
Return on assets4.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)31.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)24.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−9.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.87× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)22.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.68× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.81× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA11.1× · Pricier than median
PEG1.34× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)27· sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)57· sector 82
DIVIDEND (yield)55· sector 69
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Southwest Gas Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SWX
Frequently asked questions
Is Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $57.71 versus a price of $91.33, about 37% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SWX?
Our model-based fair value for Southwest Gas Holdings Inc is $57.71 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $91.33.
What is the quality score of SWX?
Southwest Gas Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $57.71 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $50.22, optimistic scenario $74.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Southwest Gas Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $57.71, about 37% lower versus a price of $91.33 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $50.22, optimistic scenario $74.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX)?
Southwest Gas Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Southwest Gas Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Southwest Gas Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.74% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Southwest Gas Holdings Inc pays a dividend of $2.51 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.7%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 16, 2026, with payment on Dec 1, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1985. The payout ratio is 60.9% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Southwest Gas Holdings Inc it is $57.71 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $91.33. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Southwest Gas Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, SWX trades above its calculated fair value: price $91.33, fair value $57.71, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SWX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($91.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($57.71). For Southwest Gas Holdings Inc the two are $33.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Southwest Gas Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Southwest Gas Holdings Inc at about $6.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $91.33; our models calculate a fair value of $57.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SWX?
Our models span a range for Southwest Gas Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $50.22, base $57.71, optimistic $74.92 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $91.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SWX?
Southwest Gas Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.2 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $57.71 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 20.7. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 1.7, P/S 3.8, EV/EBITDA 11.1.
What is the PEG ratio of SWX?
The PEG ratio of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc is 1.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 6.8%, debt of 0.87 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SWX from its 52-week high?
Southwest Gas Holdings Inc trades at $91.33, about 3% below its 52-week high of $93.73 and 19% above the low of $76.58 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $57.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Southwest Gas Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, Snam S.p.A, NiSource Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Southwest Gas Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $91.33, calculated fair value $57.71 (−37%), Quality Score 49/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SWX calculated?
We run Southwest Gas Holdings Inc through 15 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $57.71 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Southwest Gas Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $91.33. Our model-based fair value is $57.71, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Southwest Gas Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($74.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (49/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX) come from?
Earnings per share at Southwest Gas Holdings Inc grew +2.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.7 %, EBIT margin −14.1 %, tax rate +2.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +13.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX)?
The market capitalisation of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc is $6.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc is 5.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX)?
Earnings per share at Southwest Gas Holdings Inc are $4.11 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX)?
The dividend yield of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc is 2.7% (payout 60.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX)?
The net margin of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc is 22.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX)?
The operating margin of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc is 24.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX)?
Revenue at Southwest Gas Holdings Inc is growing −9.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −26.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX)?
Earnings per share at Southwest Gas Holdings Inc are growing +20.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX) generate?
The free cash flow of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc is −$252M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX) carry?
The net debt of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc is $2.9B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026