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Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Aktia Pankki Oyj €5.97, price €12.78, upside -53.3%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Aktia Pankki Oyj
0QF8 · LSEWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value €5.97 · Strongly overvalued (−53.3%)
!Quality 49/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +34.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.4% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!6.3% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Narrow moat 42/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.72 – €13.34 · fair‑value band €5.97 – €7.96 · the €12.78 price screens above the €5.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Aktia Pankki Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financing solutions in Finland. It operates through four segments: Asset Management, Banking Business, Life Insurance, and Group Functions.
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Aktia Pankki Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financing solutions in Finland. It operates through four segments: Asset Management, Banking Business, Life Insurance, and Group Functions. The company offers banking services, including savings; fixed income, equity, and alternative investments; leisure, investment, and reverse mortgages; construction, investment, unsecured consumer, ASP, student, and green loans; secured consumer credit; and life, disability, critical illness, and group pension insurance products. It also provides investment, asset, and wealth management; business, customer funds, and currency accounts, as well as savings deposit; payment transactions; cards; online services; and financing services, such as bank guarantee, installment, leasing, and factoring. In addition, the company offers financing and liquidity management; sales assistance; and IT and product support and development. It serves individuals, corporate customers, and institutions. The company was formerly known as Aktia Savings Bank Plc, Banking Services and changed its name to Aktia Pankki Oyj in March 2008. Aktia Pankki Oyj was founded in 1825 and is headquartered in Helsinki, Finland.
Stock analysis
Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8) currently trades at €12.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €5.97, 53.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €27.28 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the €12.78 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at €2.54, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €5.97 (bear) to €7.96 (bull), the price of €12.78 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Aktia Pankki Oyj reported revenue of €678M in FY2025 versus €196M in FY2021, a compound +36.4%/yr. Reported net income was €10.3M in FY2025, compounding −37.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €935M · P/E ratio 0.1 · EPS (TTM) €0.8980 · Dividend yield 6.3% · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 0.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% · Operating margin 29.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −53%, 0QF8 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €5.97
Fair Value €5.97
Bull €7.96
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0741 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€30.03
€43.45
€76.64
76
Residual Income
€6.19
€5.82
€5.61
76
Growth DCF
€29.07
€45.75
€73.20
74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€30.03
€43.45
€76.64
76
Owner Earnings
€35.23
€61.99
€109.94
71
5Y Revenue Exit
€17.77
€22.22
€28.87
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
€20.06
€27.28
€38.00
73
5Y P/E Exit
€16.55
€19.83
€23.30
69
10Y Revenue Exit
€21.81
€28.43
€36.02
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
€23.38
€32.21
€46.13
66
10Y P/E Exit
€21.14
€26.40
€33.54
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€1.02
€6.65
€9.31
63
Lynch FV
€1.94
€2.76
€3.59
61
PEG = 1.0
€1.94
€2.76
€3.59
57
EPV
€9.65
€9.84
€10.01
70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
€6.76
€12.18
€16.77
68
DDM Multi-Stage
€6.76
€11.13
€13.01
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€1.57
€2.09
€2.62
63
P/S Multiple
€1.91
€2.54
€3.18
58
P/B Multiple
€1.91
€2.54
€3.18
55
EV/EBIT
€10.91
€11.81
€12.72
63
EV/EBITDA
€15.35
€17.73
€20.12
64
EV/Revenue
€11.49
€12.90
€14.30
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€4.69
€6.29
€9.39
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€29.07
€45.75
€73.20
74
Rev-Margin DCF
€17.77
€22.78
€29.95
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€6.19
€5.82
€5.61
76
ROIC Compounder
€9.80
€10.37
€10.87
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€2.31
€3.30
€4.30
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
49/100
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Profitability
13
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
94
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
60
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
80
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
76
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−25.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.8% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−24.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−30.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−30.9% vs −15.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.7% a year for the price.
0QF8 screens overvalued: fair value 53% below the price. Compare with Saudi Arabian Oil Company →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Integrated Oil & Gas” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Energy · 944 stocks
Beats the sector median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its sector peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Energy median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
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10 more Integrated Oil & Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 | 25.28 SAR | 20.14 SAR | −20% |
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| Chevron Corporation CVX | $204.38 | $92.05 | −55% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥11.21 | ¥15.47 | +38% |
| TotalEnergies SE TTE | €74.51 | €70.97 | −5% |
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,168 | ₹865.31 | −26% |
| China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 | ¥48.03 | ¥31.96 | −33% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $127.06 | $91.42 | −28% |
| CNOOC Limited 0883 | HK$23.40 | HK$39.91 | +71% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PBR | $20.37 | $28.71 | +41% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €5.97 versus a price of €12.78, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0QF8?
Our model-based fair value for Aktia Pankki Oyj is €5.97 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €12.78.
What is the quality score of 0QF8?
Aktia Pankki Oyj has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €5.97 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €5.97, optimistic scenario €7.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aktia Pankki Oyj stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €5.97, about −53% upside versus a price of €12.78 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €5.97, optimistic scenario €7.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8)?
Aktia Pankki Oyj reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €272M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Aktia Pankki Oyj pay a dividend?
Aktia Pankki Oyj currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aktia Pankki Oyj would have to grow free cash flow by +0.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +34.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0QF8 use?
Our models discount Aktia Pankki Oyj at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aktia Pankki Oyj that is +0.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aktia Pankki Oyj grew +34.1 % a year. The price currently implies +0.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aktia Pankki Oyj (+0.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.51 %: that much free cash flow Aktia Pankki Oyj produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aktia Pankki Oyj it is €5.97 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €12.78. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aktia Pankki Oyj stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0QF8 trades above its calculated fair value: price €12.78, fair value €5.97, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0QF8?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€12.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€5.97). For Aktia Pankki Oyj the two are €6.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aktia Pankki Oyj worth?
The market values Aktia Pankki Oyj at about €935M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €12.78; our models calculate a fair value of €5.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0QF8?
Our models span a range for Aktia Pankki Oyj: cautious scenario €5.97, base €5.97, optimistic €7.96 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €12.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0QF8?
Aktia Pankki Oyj trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €5.97 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aktia Pankki Oyj (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 0.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0QF8 from its 52-week high?
Aktia Pankki Oyj trades at €12.78, about 4% below its 52-week high of €13.34 and 38% above the low of €9.26 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €5.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aktia Pankki Oyj?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aktia Pankki Oyj stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €12.78, calculated fair value €5.97 (−53%), Quality Score 49/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0QF8 calculated?
We run Aktia Pankki Oyj through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €5.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Aktia Pankki Oyj itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €12.78. Our model-based fair value is €5.97, about −53% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aktia Pankki Oyj right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€7.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8) come from?
Earnings per share at Aktia Pankki Oyj grew +0.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.2 %, EBIT margin +1.9 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −11.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Aktia Pankki Oyj
How large is the market capitalisation of Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8)?
The market capitalisation of Aktia Pankki Oyj is €935M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8)?
Earnings per share at Aktia Pankki Oyj are €0.8980 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8)?
The dividend yield of Aktia Pankki Oyj is 6.3% (payout 89.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8)?
The net margin of Aktia Pankki Oyj is 1.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aktia Pankki Oyj is 0.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aktia Pankki Oyj is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8)?
The operating margin of Aktia Pankki Oyj is 29.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8)?
Revenue at Aktia Pankki Oyj is growing −10.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8)?
Earnings per share at Aktia Pankki Oyj are growing −34.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aktia Pankki Oyj (0QF8) carry?
The net debt of Aktia Pankki Oyj is €4.7B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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