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Avolta AG (0QK3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Avolta AG £84.81, price £43.28, upside +96.0%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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AA
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Avolta AG
0QK3 · LSECheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value £84.81 · Strongly undervalued (+96.0%)
!Quality 45/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +40.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.4% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.7% dividend yield · Well covered
!Narrow moat 44/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £29.44 – £64.76 · fair‑value band £63.61 – £153.37 · the £43.28 price screens below the £84.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Avolta AG operates as a travel retail company in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific.
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Avolta AG operates as a travel retail company in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. It offers perfumes and cosmetics, food and beverages, wines and spirits, luxury goods, fuel, electronics, literature, publications, toys and souvenirs, soft drinks, packaged food, travel accessories, personal items, newspapers, magazines, books, watches and jewelry, sunglasses, destination, and other products; and confectionery and catering, textile, leather, luggage, and tobacco and related products. The company operates general travel retail shops under the Dufry, World Duty Free, Hellenic Duty Free, Autogrill, and HMSHost brands; and convenience stores under the Hudson brand. It operates duty-free and duty-paid shops, restaurants, and hybrid concepts located at airports, border, downtown and hotel shops, railway stations, cruise liners and ferries, seaports, and motorways. The company was formerly known as Dufry AG and changed its name to Avolta AG in November 2023. Avolta AG was incorporated in 1865 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Avolta AG (0QK3) currently trades at £43.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £84.81, implying the stock looks roughly 49.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £694.45 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the £43.28 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £24.74, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £63.61 (bear) to £153.37 (bull), the price of £43.28 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Avolta AG reported revenue of £14.0B in FY2025 versus £3.9B in FY2021, a compound +37.5%/yr. Reported net income was £199M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap £1.8B · P/S ratio 0.13 · EPS (TTM) £−4.39 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 14.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4% · Operating margin 8.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at 96%, 0QK3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £63.61
Fair Value £84.81
Bull £153.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
£721.45
£1,413
£2,650
76
Residual Income
£32.57
£36.13
£43.88
76
Growth DCF
£704.95
£1,310
£2,326
75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
£721.45
£1,413
£2,650
76
Owner Earnings
£508.95
£1,014
£1,911
72
5Y Revenue Exit
£325.52
£532.41
£800.63
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
£530.62
£973.74
£1,538
73
5Y P/E Exit
£233.64
£334.71
£438.64
71
10Y Revenue Exit
£446.32
£694.45
£1,059
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
£588.41
£1,019
£1,688
66
10Y P/E Exit
£392.39
£549.28
£749.93
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
£26.22
£140.07
£194.05
63
Lynch FV
£38.67
£55.24
£71.82
61
PEG = 1.0
£38.67
£55.24
£71.82
57
EPV
£114.72
£141.78
£165.12
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
£24.33
£48.48
£73.41
67
DDM Multi-Stage
£24.33
£41.90
£51.17
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
£63.61
£84.81
£106.02
63
P/S Multiple
£49.15
£65.54
£81.92
58
P/B Multiple
£49.15
£65.54
£81.92
55
EV/EBIT
£231.83
£327.99
£424.14
65
EV/EBITDA
£474.79
£651.94
£829.08
67
EV/Revenue
£137.81
£221.15
£304.48
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
£18.46
£24.74
£36.92
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
£704.95
£1,310
£2,326
75
Rev-Margin DCF
£325.52
£535.24
£819.19
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
£32.57
£36.13
£43.88
76
ROIC Compounder
£141.35
£212.63
£306.05
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
£58.40
£83.42
£108.45
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
45/100
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Profitability
49
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
53
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
84
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
7
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
31
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
21
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
50
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.6% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +12.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−98% → 8%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 118% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−20.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −22.0% a year for the price and +1.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−0.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.1%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥51.46 | ¥40.40 | −21% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $134.70 | $201.62 | +50% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $222.60 | $184.99 | −17% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Avolta AG (0QK3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £84.81 versus a price of £43.28, about +96% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0QK3?
Our model-based fair value for Avolta AG is £84.81 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £43.28.
What is the quality score of 0QK3?
Avolta AG has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Avolta AG (0QK3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £84.81 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario £63.61, optimistic scenario £153.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Avolta AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £84.81, about +96% upside versus a price of £43.28 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £63.61, optimistic scenario £153.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Avolta AG (0QK3)?
Avolta AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £14.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Avolta AG pay a dividend?
Avolta AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.66% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Avolta AG (0QK3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Avolta AG would have to grow free cash flow by -20.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +40.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0QK3 use?
Our models discount Avolta AG at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.05, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Avolta AG that is -20.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Avolta AG (0QK3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Avolta AG grew +40.4 % a year. The price currently implies -20.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Avolta AG (0QK3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Avolta AG (-20.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Avolta AG (0QK3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 40.12 %: that much free cash flow Avolta AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Avolta AG (0QK3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Avolta AG it is £84.81 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of £43.28. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Avolta AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0QK3 trades below its calculated fair value: price £43.28, fair value £84.81, a gap of about +96% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0QK3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£43.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£84.81). For Avolta AG the two are £41.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Avolta AG worth?
The market values Avolta AG at about £1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is £43.28; our models calculate a fair value of £84.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0QK3?
Our models span a range for Avolta AG: cautious scenario £63.61, base £84.81, optimistic £153.37 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price £43.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0QK3 from its 52-week high?
Avolta AG trades at £43.28, about 22% below its 52-week high of £55.33 and 5% above the low of £41.40 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £84.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Avolta AG?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Avolta AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price £43.28, calculated fair value £84.81 (+96%), Quality Score 45/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0QK3 calculated?
We run Avolta AG through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £84.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Avolta AG currently trades 49 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Avolta AG (0QK3)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was £43.28. Our model-based fair value is £84.81, about +96% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Avolta AG right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (£63.61). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (£63.61 to £153.37) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Avolta AG (0QK3) come from?
Earnings per share at Avolta AG grew +4.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −4.2 %, EBIT margin +4.4 %, tax rate −1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Avolta AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Avolta AG (0QK3)?
The market capitalisation of Avolta AG is £1.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Avolta AG (0QK3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Avolta AG is 0.13 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Avolta AG (0QK3)?
Earnings per share at Avolta AG are £−4.39. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Avolta AG (0QK3)?
The dividend yield of Avolta AG is 2.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Avolta AG (0QK3)?
The net margin of Avolta AG is 1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Avolta AG (0QK3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Avolta AG is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Avolta AG (0QK3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Avolta AG is 4.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Avolta AG (0QK3)?
The operating margin of Avolta AG is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Avolta AG (0QK3)?
Revenue at Avolta AG is growing −0.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Avolta AG (0QK3)?
Earnings per share at Avolta AG are growing +84.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Avolta AG (0QK3) carry?
The net debt of Avolta AG is £10.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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