Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Swatch Group AG Reg. £8.49, price £35.75, upside -76.3%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £25.49 – £63.02 · fair‑value band £7.25 – £10.49 · the £35.75 price screens above the £8.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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The Swatch Group AG designs, manufactures, and sells finished watches, jewelry, and watch movements and components in Switzerland, rest of Europe, Greater China, Asia, America, Oceania, and Africa. The company operates through Watches & Jewelry and Electronic Systems segments.
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The Swatch Group AG designs, manufactures, and sells finished watches, jewelry, and watch movements and components in Switzerland, rest of Europe, Greater China, Asia, America, Oceania, and Africa. The company operates through Watches & Jewelry and Electronic Systems segments. The Watches & Jewelry segment designs, produces, and commercializes watches and jewelry. The Electronic Systems segment engages in the design, production, and commercialization of electronic components, as well as sports timing activities. The company is also involved in the provision of assembly, research and development, administration, logistics and distribution, and customer services; and hard material components, microelectronics, watch cases and crowns, miniature low-frequency quartz crystals, thin wires, miniature batteries, watch dials and hands, bracelets, sports timing technology and equipment, precision parts, electronic components assembly, and surface treatment products. In addition, it engages in the patent, retail, communication, real estate, real estate management, finance, reinsurance, and art center businesses. The company offers its watch and jewelry products under the Breguet, Harry Winston, Blancpain, Glashütte Original, Jaquet Droz, Omega, Longines, Rado, Union Glashütte, Tissot, Balmain, Certina, Mido, Hamilton, Swatch, and Flik Flak brands. The Swatch Group AG was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Biel/Bienne, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4) currently trades at £35.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £8.49, 76.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of £28.02 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the £35.75 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at £6.36, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: £7.25 (bear) to £10.49 (bull), the price of £35.75 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Swatch Group AG Reg. reported revenue of £6.3B in FY2025 versus £7.3B in FY2021, a compound −3.7%/yr. Reported net income was £3.0M in FY2025, compounding −75.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap £9.8B · P/E ratio 0.0 · EPS (TTM) £14.77 · Dividend yield 12.6% · Net margin 0.0% · Return on equity 0.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2% · Operating margin 1.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −76%, 0QM4 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (£0.1300 to £29.89). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear £7.25Fair Value £8.49Bull £10.49
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (£7.76 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.9% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+5.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)12.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−54.3% vs −44.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 15.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.8% a year for the price and +2.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Industrials · 5328 stocks
Beats the sector median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−76.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)12.6% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrials median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)0.0× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)10· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)1· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Swatch Group AG Reg. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0QM4
Frequently asked questions
Is Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £8.49 versus a price of £35.75, about −76% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0QM4?
Our model-based fair value for Swatch Group AG Reg. is £8.49 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £35.75.
What is the quality score of 0QM4?
Swatch Group AG Reg. has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £8.49 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario £7.25, optimistic scenario £10.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Swatch Group AG Reg. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £8.49, about −76% upside versus a price of £35.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £7.25, optimistic scenario £10.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4)?
Swatch Group AG Reg. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £6.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Swatch Group AG Reg. pay a dividend?
Swatch Group AG Reg. currently shows a dividend yield of about 12.59% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Swatch Group AG Reg. would have to grow free cash flow by -11.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.3 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0QM4 use?
Our models discount Swatch Group AG Reg. at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.82, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Swatch Group AG Reg. that is -11.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Swatch Group AG Reg. grew +2.3 % a year. The price currently implies -11.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Swatch Group AG Reg. (-11.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.28 %: that much free cash flow Swatch Group AG Reg. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Swatch Group AG Reg. it is £8.49 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of £35.75. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Swatch Group AG Reg. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, 0QM4 trades above its calculated fair value: price £35.75, fair value £8.49, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0QM4?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£35.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£8.49). For Swatch Group AG Reg. the two are £27.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Swatch Group AG Reg. worth?
The market values Swatch Group AG Reg. at about £9.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is £35.75; our models calculate a fair value of £8.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0QM4?
Our models span a range for Swatch Group AG Reg.: cautious scenario £7.25, base £8.49, optimistic £10.49 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price £35.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0QM4?
Swatch Group AG Reg. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.0 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £8.49 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4)?
Balance-sheet figures for Swatch Group AG Reg. (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 0.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0QM4 from its 52-week high?
Swatch Group AG Reg. trades at £35.75, about 17% below its 52-week high of £42.90 and 18% above the low of £30.36 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £8.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Swatch Group AG Reg.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Samsung C&T Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Swatch Group AG Reg. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price £35.75, calculated fair value £8.49 (−76%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0QM4 calculated?
We run Swatch Group AG Reg. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £8.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Swatch Group AG Reg. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was £35.75. Our model-based fair value is £8.49, about −76% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Swatch Group AG Reg. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£10.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4) come from?
Earnings per share at Swatch Group AG Reg. grew −22.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −14.6 %, EBIT margin −7.8 %, tax rate −1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Swatch Group AG Reg.
How large is the market capitalisation of Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4)?
The market capitalisation of Swatch Group AG Reg. is £9.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4)?
Earnings per share at Swatch Group AG Reg. are £14.77 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4)?
The dividend yield of Swatch Group AG Reg. is 12.6% (payout 30.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4)?
The net margin of Swatch Group AG Reg. is 0.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Swatch Group AG Reg. is 0.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Swatch Group AG Reg. is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4)?
The operating margin of Swatch Group AG Reg. is 1.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4)?
Revenue at Swatch Group AG Reg. is growing +2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4)?
Earnings per share at Swatch Group AG Reg. are growing −85.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Swatch Group AG Reg. (0QM4) hold?
Swatch Group AG Reg. holds more cash than debt, £972M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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