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MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A (0QVM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A €3.11, price €12.17, upside -74.5%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Real Estate · GB · Home Spain · ISIN ES0105025003

MP Thin data Sep 24, 2026

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A

0QVM · LSE

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value €3.11 · Strongly overvalued (−74.5%)
!Quality 53/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −1.3 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 134.1% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt
!Moderate moat 60/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

€15.89 €6.63 Fair Value €3.11 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €6.63 – €15.89 · fair‑value band €2.33 – €3.89 · the €12.17 price screens above the €3.11 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A. is the largest real estate and infrastructure company trading on the Spanish Stock Exchange. Specialized in the development, acquisition and management of commercial property in the lberian region.

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MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A. is the largest real estate and infrastructure company trading on the Spanish Stock Exchange. Specialized in the development, acquisition and management of commercial property in the lberian region. MERLIN Properties mainly invests in offices, shopping centers, logistics facilities and data centers, within the Core and Core Plus segments, forming part of the benchmark IBEX-35, Euro STOXX 600, FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Real Estate, GPR Global Index, GPR-250 Index, MSCI Small Caps indices and DJSI. MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A. was incorporated in 2014 in Spain.

Stock analysis

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A (0QVM) currently trades at €12.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.11, 74.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of €12.09 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the €12.17 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at €2.58, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: €2.33 (bear) to €3.89 (bull), the price of €12.17 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A reported revenue of €446M in FY2020 versus €352M in FY2016, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was €56.4M in FY2020, compounding −44.2%/yr from FY2016.

Key figures

Market cap €4.5B · P/S ratio 7.78 · Net margin 12.6% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3% · Operating margin 73.7% · Revenue (TTM) €581M · Revenue growth (YoY) +10.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −74%, 0QVM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €2.33 Fair Value €3.11 Bull €3.89
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income €12.19 €11.48 €11.02 73
Gordon GGM €2.47 €2.69 €3.02 67
DDM Multi-Stage €2.47 €3.05 €3.84 65
All 7 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €2.47 €2.69 €3.02 67
DDM Multi-Stage €2.47 €3.05 €3.84 65
Multiples
P/S Multiple €1.94 €2.58 €3.23 58
P/B Multiple €1.94 €2.58 €3.23 55
EV/EBIT n/a n/a €2.99 61
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €9.02 €12.09 €18.04 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income €12.19 €11.48 €11.02 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 17
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−13.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
170.7% (2016) → 53.9% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
not computed

0QVM screens overvalued: fair value 74% below the price. Compare with BXP, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Office · 69 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Above median
Fair Value upside −77.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 9.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.9% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 134.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 73.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 10.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.86× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Office median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.78× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 9.03× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 24.8× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Office stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BXP, Inc BXP $63.40 $38.36 −39%
Vornado Realty Trust VNORP $50.11 $49.54 −1%
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc ARE $49.93 $98.03 +96%
Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc HPP $11.65 $2.97 −75%
Gecina GFC €63.75 €75.43 +18%
Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust N2IU 1.22 SGD 1.26 SGD +3%
Cousins Properties Incorporated CUZ $28.65 $8.26 −71%
Keppel DC REIT AJBU 2.12 SGD 2.70 SGD +27%
DEXUS DXS A$5.43 A$4.09 −25%
Kilroy Realty Corporation KRC $34.23 $35.64 +4%

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MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A · Fair Value
€3.11 −74%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0QVM

Frequently asked questions

Is MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A (0QVM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.11 versus a price of €12.17, about −74% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0QVM?
Our model-based fair value for MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A is €3.11 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €12.17.
What is the quality score of 0QVM?
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A (0QVM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €3.11 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.33, optimistic scenario €3.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €3.11, about −74% upside versus a price of €12.17 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2.33, optimistic scenario €3.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A (0QVM)?
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €581M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A (0QVM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A it is €3.11 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €12.17. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0QVM trades above its calculated fair value: price €12.17, fair value €3.11, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0QVM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€12.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€3.11). For MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A the two are €9.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A worth?
The market values MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A at about €4.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €12.17; our models calculate a fair value of €3.11 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0QVM?
Our models span a range for MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A: cautious scenario €2.33, base €3.11, optimistic €3.89 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €12.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A (0QVM)?
Balance-sheet figures for MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.4%, debt of 0.86 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0QVM from its 52-week high?
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A trades at €12.17, about 23% below its 52-week high of €15.89 and 3% above the low of €11.82 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €3.11 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value BXP, Inc, Vornado Realty Trust, Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc, Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €12.17, calculated fair value €3.11 (−74%), Quality Score 53/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0QVM calculated?
We run MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €3.11, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A (0QVM)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €12.17. Our model-based fair value is €3.11, about −74% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€3.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A

How large is the market capitalisation of MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A (0QVM)?
The market capitalisation of MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A is €4.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A (0QVM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A is 7.78 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A (0QVM)?
The net margin of MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A is 12.6% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A (0QVM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A (0QVM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A (0QVM)?
The operating margin of MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A is 73.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A (0QVM)?
Revenue at MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A is growing +10.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A (0QVM)?
Earnings per share at MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A are growing −16.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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