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Zalando SE (0QXN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Zalando SE €11.07, price €22.35, upside -50.5%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Cyclical · GB · ISIN DE000ZAL1111

ZS Thin data Sep 29, 2026

Zalando SE

0QXN · LSE

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value €11.07 · Strongly overvalued (−50.5%)
!Quality 56/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +21.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt
!Narrow moat 28/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

€101.96 €16.14 Fair Value €11.07 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €16.14 – €101.96 · fair‑value band €7.75 – €14.39 · the €22.35 price screens above the €11.07 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

Zalando SE operates an online platform for fashion and lifestyle products in Germany and internationally. The company operates through Business-to-Business and Business-to-Consumer segments.

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Zalando SE operates an online platform for fashion and lifestyle products in Germany and internationally. The company operates through Business-to-Business and Business-to-Consumer segments. It engages in the development, sourcing, marketing, retail, and commission sale of various type of goods, including shoes, apparel, accessories, and beauty products with free delivery and returns, as well as various payment options. The company sells its products through Lounge by Zalando and its outlets. Zalando SE was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Berlin, Germany.

Stock analysis

Zalando SE (0QXN) currently trades at €22.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €11.07, 50.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €14.16 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the €22.35 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €1.86, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: €7.75 (bear) to €14.39 (bull), the price of €22.35 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Zalando SE reported revenue of €8.0B in FY2020 versus €3.6B in FY2016, a compound +21.7%/yr. Reported net income was €226M in FY2020, compounding +17.1%/yr from FY2016.

Key figures

Market cap €17.3B · P/S ratio 1.34 · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5% · Operating margin −2.7% · Revenue (TTM) €12.9B · Revenue growth (YoY) +23.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −50%, 0QXN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €7.75 Fair Value €11.07 Bull €14.39
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV €4.95 €5.63 €6.22 74
FCF DCF €10.49 €16.60 €34.83 72
Growth DCF €9.99 €18.36 €34.68 71
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €10.49 €16.60 €34.83 72
5Y Revenue Exit €6.85 €11.16 €19.60 67
5Y EBITDA Exit €8.69 €15.10 €26.93 69
5Y P/E Exit €6.99 €12.71 €20.01 66
10Y Revenue Exit €7.71 €13.89 €20.01 63
10Y EBITDA Exit €9.21 €17.49 €32.64 62
10Y P/E Exit €7.99 €14.16 €24.57 59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €1.98 €13.83 €19.41 60
Lynch FV €4.33 €6.19 €8.05 58
PEG = 1.0 €4.33 €6.19 €8.05 55
EPV €4.95 €5.63 €6.22 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple €4.81 €6.42 €8.02 63
P/S Multiple €3.72 €4.96 €6.20 58
P/B Multiple €3.72 €4.96 €6.20 55
EV/EBIT €7.28 €9.41 €11.54 66
EV/EBITDA €8.09 €10.48 €12.88 67
EV/Revenue €5.20 €7.05 €8.89 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €1.39 €1.86 €2.77 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €9.99 €18.36 €34.68 71
Rev-Margin DCF €6.85 €12.12 €20.09 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income €2.47 €2.78 €3.71 68
ROIC Compounder €6.02 €8.47 €11.73 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €5.94 €8.48 €11.03 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27

Profitability 58
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 77
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 61
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 47
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 25
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 23
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.7% (2016) → 4.6% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
not computed

0QXN screens overvalued: fair value 50% below the price. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 101 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Below median
Fair Value upside −75.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 4.3% · Below median
Return on assets 2.4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 0.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −2.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 23.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.41× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/B 9.35× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.56× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 36.6× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Amazon.com, Inc AMZN $249.15 $127.33 −49%
Alibaba Group BABA $107.54 $66.62 −38%
MercadoLibre, Inc MELI $1,725 $1,897 +10%
DoorDash, Inc DASH $178.39 $196.23 +10%
Sea Limited SE $95.27 $129.32 +36%
eBay Inc EBAY $107.32 $118.05 +10%
JD.com, Inc JD $26.30 $33.32 +27%
Coupang, Inc CPNG $13.88 $4.96 −64%
Wayfair Inc W $102.56 $34.72 −66%
Allegro.eu S.A ALE 49.56 PLN 54.51 PLN +10%

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Zalando SE · Fair Value
€11.07 −50%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zalando SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0QXN

Frequently asked questions

Is Zalando SE (0QXN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €11.07 versus a price of €22.35, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0QXN?
Our model-based fair value for Zalando SE is €11.07 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €22.35.
What is the quality score of 0QXN?
Zalando SE has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zalando SE (0QXN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €11.07 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario €7.75, optimistic scenario €14.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zalando SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €11.07, about −50% upside versus a price of €22.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €7.75, optimistic scenario €14.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zalando SE (0QXN)?
Zalando SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €12.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Zalando SE (0QXN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zalando SE it is €11.07 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of €22.35. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zalando SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 0QXN trades above its calculated fair value: price €22.35, fair value €11.07, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0QXN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€22.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€11.07). For Zalando SE the two are €11.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zalando SE worth?
The market values Zalando SE at about €17.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is €22.35; our models calculate a fair value of €11.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0QXN?
Our models span a range for Zalando SE: cautious scenario €7.75, base €11.07, optimistic €14.39 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price €22.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zalando SE (0QXN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zalando SE (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 4.3%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0QXN from its 52-week high?
Zalando SE trades at €22.35, about 26% below its 52-week high of €30.00 and 18% above the low of €18.99 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €11.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zalando SE?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, MercadoLibre, Inc, DoorDash, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zalando SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price €22.35, calculated fair value €11.07 (−50%), Quality Score 56/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0QXN calculated?
We run Zalando SE through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €11.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Zalando SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zalando SE (0QXN)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €22.35. Our model-based fair value is €11.07, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zalando SE right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€14.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€7.75 to €14.39) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Zalando SE

How large is the market capitalisation of Zalando SE (0QXN)?
The market capitalisation of Zalando SE is €17.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zalando SE (0QXN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zalando SE is 1.34 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Zalando SE (0QXN)?
The net margin of Zalando SE is 2.8% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zalando SE (0QXN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zalando SE is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zalando SE (0QXN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zalando SE is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zalando SE (0QXN)?
The operating margin of Zalando SE is −2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zalando SE (0QXN)?
Revenue at Zalando SE is growing +23.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zalando SE (0QXN)?
Earnings per share at Zalando SE are growing −21.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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