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Booking Holdings (0W2Y) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Booking Holdings $258, price $159, upside +61.8%, quality 88 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Booking Holdings
0W2Y · LSEStrongly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside with high Quality.
✓Fair value $257.58 · Strongly undervalued (+61.8%)
✓Quality 88/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +31.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 22.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
✓1.0% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 85/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $64.94 – $228.82 · fair‑value band $180.31 – $334.85 · the $159.25 price screens below the $257.58 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Booking Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and traditional travel and restaurant reservations and related services in the United States, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
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Booking Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and traditional travel and restaurant reservations and related services in the United States, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company operates Booking.com, which offers online accommodation reservations; and Priceline, which provides discount travel reservations services, as well as online accommodation, flight, rental car reservation services, vacation packages, cruises, activity, and affiliate programs. It also operates Agoda that offers online accommodation reservation, flight, ground transportation, and attractions. In addition, the company operates KAYAK, an online meta-search service that allows consumers to search and compare travel itineraries and prices; and OpenTable for booking online restaurant reservations, as well as reservation management services to restaurants. Further, it offers travel-related insurance products, payment facilitation, and restaurant management services to consumers, travel service providers, and restaurants; and advertising services. The company was formerly known as The Priceline Group Inc. and changed its name to Booking Holdings Inc. in February 2018. Booking Holdings Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.
Stock analysis
Booking Holdings (0W2Y) currently trades at $159.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $257.58, implying the stock looks roughly 38.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 23 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Scenario range: $180.31 (bear) to $334.85 (bull), the price of $159.25 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 88/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Booking Holdings reported revenue of $26.9B in FY2025 versus $11.0B in FY2021, a compound +25.2%/yr. Reported net income was $5.4B in FY2025, compounding +46.8%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $6.3B · P/E ratio 0.0 · EPS (TTM) $160.13 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 20.1% · Return on equity 226% · Return on assets (EBIT) 22.8% · Operating margin 25.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 99% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 62%, 0W2Y screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $180.31
Fair Value $257.58
Bull $334.85
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($119.89 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$4,660
$7,883
$16,486
75
EPV
$2,262
$2,618
$2,924
74
Growth DCF
$4,463
$8,643
$16,139
74
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$4,660
$7,883
$16,486
75
Owner Earnings
$3,221
$6,912
$14,195
71
5Y Revenue Exit
$1,905
$2,843
$4,340
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$3,323
$5,965
$10,212
73
5Y P/E Exit
$3,258
$6,110
$9,650
69
10Y Revenue Exit
$2,724
$4,176
$5,797
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
$3,718
$6,713
$11,832
66
10Y P/E Exit
$3,673
$6,596
$11,313
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1,129
$7,518
$10,530
63
Lynch FV
$2,197
$3,139
$4,080
61
PEG = 1.0
$2,197
$3,139
$4,080
57
EPV
$2,262
$2,618
$2,924
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$336.83
$671.17
$1,016
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$336.83
$580.04
$708.46
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$2,740
$3,654
$4,567
63
P/S Multiple
$744.47
$992.63
$1,241
58
EV/EBIT
$3,947
$5,258
$6,570
66
EV/EBITDA
$2,847
$3,792
$4,738
67
EV/Revenue
$705.50
$1,003
$1,301
53
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$4,463
$8,643
$16,139
74
Rev-Margin DCF
$1,905
$2,976
$4,522
72
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder
$2,262
$2,618
$2,924
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$3,123
$4,462
$5,801
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
88/100
Of which business quality 85 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Profitability
87
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
96
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
83
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
28
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
31
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.3% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+43.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+42.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.42.5% vs 13.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 35%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.9% a year for the price and +5.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+9.0%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+9.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+8.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+7.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+6.6%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $160.65 | $176.72 | +10% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $265.86 | $209.94 | −21% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $79.30 | $87.23 | +10% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $264.17 | $290.59 | +10% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $25.07 | $36.68 | +46% |
| Trip.com Group 9961 | HK$309.20 | HK$679.42 | +120% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $14.80 | $20.28 | +37% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.50 | $5.23 | −45% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT | $46.75 | $34.50 | −26% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $63.66 | $36.63 | −42% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Booking Holdings (0W2Y) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $257.58 versus a price of $159.25, about +62% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0W2Y?
Our model-based fair value for Booking Holdings is $257.58 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $159.25.
What is the quality score of 0W2Y?
Booking Holdings has a Quality Score of 88/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Booking Holdings (0W2Y)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $257.58 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $180.31, optimistic scenario $334.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Booking Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $257.58, about +62% upside versus a price of $159.25 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $180.31, optimistic scenario $334.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Booking Holdings (0W2Y)?
Booking Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $27.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Booking Holdings pay a dividend?
Booking Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.99% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Booking Holdings (0W2Y)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Booking Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +5.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +31.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0W2Y use?
Our models discount Booking Holdings at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.07, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Booking Holdings that is +5.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Booking Holdings (0W2Y) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Booking Holdings grew +31.7 % a year. The price currently implies +5.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Booking Holdings (0W2Y) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Booking Holdings (+5.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Booking Holdings (0W2Y)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.99 %: that much free cash flow Booking Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Booking Holdings (0W2Y)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Booking Holdings it is $257.58 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $159.25. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Booking Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0W2Y trades below its calculated fair value: price $159.25, fair value $257.58, a gap of about +62% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0W2Y?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($159.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($257.58). For Booking Holdings the two are $98.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Booking Holdings worth?
The market values Booking Holdings at about $6.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $159.25; our models calculate a fair value of $257.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0W2Y?
Our models span a range for Booking Holdings: cautious scenario $180.31, base $257.58, optimistic $334.85 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $159.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0W2Y from its 52-week high?
Booking Holdings trades at $159.25, about 27% below its 52-week high of $217.95 and 99% above the low of $80.04 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $257.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Booking Holdings?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Airbnb, Inc, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, Viking Holdings, Expedia Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Booking Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $159.25, calculated fair value $257.58 (+62%), Quality Score 88/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0W2Y calculated?
We run Booking Holdings through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $257.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Booking Holdings currently trades 38 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Booking Holdings (0W2Y)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $159.25. Our model-based fair value is $257.58, about +62% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Booking Holdings right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (88/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($180.31). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($180.31 to $334.85) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Booking Holdings (0W2Y) come from?
Earnings per share at Booking Holdings grew +14.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.0 %, EBIT margin −1.3 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Booking Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Booking Holdings (0W2Y)?
The market capitalisation of Booking Holdings is $6.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Booking Holdings (0W2Y)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Booking Holdings is 0.0 (as of Aug 5, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What are the earnings per share of Booking Holdings (0W2Y)?
Earnings per share at Booking Holdings are $160.13 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Booking Holdings (0W2Y)?
The dividend yield of Booking Holdings is 1.0% (payout 1.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Booking Holdings (0W2Y)?
The net margin of Booking Holdings is 20.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Booking Holdings (0W2Y)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Booking Holdings is 226% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Booking Holdings (0W2Y)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Booking Holdings is 22.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Booking Holdings (0W2Y)?
The operating margin of Booking Holdings is 25.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Booking Holdings (0W2Y)?
Revenue at Booking Holdings is growing +16.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Booking Holdings (0W2Y)?
Earnings per share at Booking Holdings are growing +240% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Booking Holdings (0W2Y) carry?
The net debt of Booking Holdings is $2.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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