Trip.com Group Ltd (9961) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Trip.com Group Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Trip.com Group Ltd
9961 · HKClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
What runs behind every stock
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$125.57 – HK$609.00 · fair‑value band HK$421.35 – HK$1,420 · the HK$319.40 price screens below the HK$703.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Company profile
Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally.
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Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally. It acts as an agent for hotel-related transactions and selling air tickets, as well as provides train, long-distance bus, and ferry tickets; travel insurance products, such as flight delay, air accident, and baggage loss coverage; and air-ticket delivery, online check-in and seat selection, express security screening, real-time flight status tracker, and airport VIP lounge services. The company also provides travelers bundled packaged-tour products, such as group, semi-group, and customized and packaged tours with various transportation arrangements, including air, cruise, bus, and car rental services. In addition, it offers integrated transportation and accommodation services; ticket, activity, insurance, visa, and tour guide services; and user support, supplier management, and customer relationship management services; and in-destination products and services. Further, the company provides Trip.Biz, a digital first, full-service, corporate travel management business which provides technology-enabled solutions for organizations managing business travel. Additionally, it offers online advertising and financial services, such as marketing planning and travel media services; Omni-Channel Touchpoints for Users; and Open Platform for Ecosystem Partners. It operates under the Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, Travix, Travelfusion, and Skyscanner brand names. The company was formerly known as Ctrip.com International, Ltd. and changed its name to Trip.com Group Limited in October 2019. Trip.com Group Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Singapore.
Stock analysis
Trip.com Group Ltd (9961) currently trades at HK$319.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$703.88, implying the stock looks roughly 54.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$1,804 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$319.40 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$181.97, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$421.35 (bear) to HK$1,420 (bull), the price of HK$319.40 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Trip.com Group Ltd reported revenue of 62.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 20.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +32.9%/yr. Reported net income was 33.3B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$223B (≈ $28.4B) · P/E ratio 6.3 · P/S ratio 3.37 · EPS (TTM) HK$45.46 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 53.3% · Return on equity 20.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 120%, 9961 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
All 26 models by family
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
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Recent news
- More Than 70% of Trip.com Bookings Now Come From Mobile
- Trip.Biz Launches Agent ONE, an AI Suite Transforming Business Travel -- Cutting Booking Time by 90% for Travellers and Simplifying Oversigh
- Does Q2 2026 Penalty and AI, Overseas Growth Shift Change The Bull Case For Trip.com (TCOM)?
- Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: International OTA Revenue Jumps ...
Compare Trip.com Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Travel Services · 85 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Hong Kong Stocks
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $171.32 | $188.45 | +10% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $168.32 | $185.15 | +10% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $253.92 | $179.80 | −29% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $85.38 | $93.92 | +10% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $22.11 | $29.17 | +32% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $286.97 | $315.67 | +10% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $14.39 | $20.28 | +41% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.46 | $5.04 | −47% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $63.74 | $18.00 | −72% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT | $47.87 | $38.60 | −19% |
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Key figures of Trip.com Group Ltd
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