Trip.com Group Ltd (9961) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Trip.com Group Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
- Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
- Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
- Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes
At a glance
A solid business, trading 45% below our fair value of HK$577.85.
As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Trip.com Group Ltd is HK$577.85 per share against a price of HK$316.60, so the fair value sits 83% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$620.95 to HK$577.85 (−6.9%) since Jul 12, 2026. Share price −13.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$408.36). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$408.36 to HK$1,413). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$125.57 – HK$609.00 · fair‑value band HK$408.36 – HK$1,413 · the HK$316.60 price screens below the HK$577.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Trip.com Group Ltd (9961) currently trades at HK$316.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$577.85, implying the stock looks roughly 45.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$1,804 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$316.60 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$181.97, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Trip.com Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$62.4B at a net margin of 53.4%. Revenue grew 20.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$14.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Scenario range: HK$408.36 (bear) to HK$1,413 (bull), the price of HK$316.60 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 83%, 9961 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$27.43 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$1,804) versus Dividend Discount (HK$38.87). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally.
Full company description
Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally. It acts as an agent for hotel-related transactions and selling air tickets, as well as provides train, long-distance bus, and ferry tickets; travel insurance products, such as flight delay, air accident, and baggage loss coverage; and air-ticket delivery, online check-in and seat selection, express security screening, real-time flight status tracker, and airport VIP lounge services. The company also provides travelers bundled packaged-tour products, such as group, semi-group, and customized and packaged tours with various transportation arrangements, including air, cruise, bus, and car rental services. In addition, it offers integrated transportation and accommodation services; ticket, activity, insurance, visa, and tour guide services; and user support, supplier management, and customer relationship management services; and in-destination products and services. Further, the company provides Trip.Biz, a digital first, full-service, corporate travel management business which provides technology-enabled solutions for organizations managing business travel. Additionally, it offers online advertising and financial services, such as marketing planning and travel media services; Omni-Channel Touchpoints for Users; and Open Platform for Ecosystem Partners. It operates under the Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, Travix, Travelfusion, and Skyscanner brand names. The company was formerly known as Ctrip.com International, Ltd. and changed its name to Trip.com Group Limited in October 2019. Trip.com Group Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Singapore.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Trip.com Group Ltd reported revenue of 62.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 20.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +32.9%/yr. Reported net income was 33.3B CNY in FY2025.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Trip.Gourmet Unveils Global 2027 Fine Dining List and Debuts New WOW Privileges Programme
- Trip.com (TCOM) Stock Declines While Market Improves: Some Information for Investors
- Trip.com Group Limited to Report Second Quarter and First Half of 2026 Financial Results on September 15, 2026 U.S. Time
- Growing Sportcation Travel Trend: Trip.com Group Reports 40% Increase in Active Travel Booking GMV
Peer Group
Travel Services · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Trip.com Group Ltd deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Hong Kong Stocks
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $193.29 | $152.94 | −21% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $181.94 | $85.66 | −53% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $264.50 | $215.19 | −19% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $85.03 | $43.68 | −49% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $23.20 | $31.36 | +35% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $303.14 | $248.63 | −18% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $15.39 | $20.28 | +32% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.44 | $5.04 | −47% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $66.40 | $26.57 | −60% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT | $60.31 | $19.30 | −68% |
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