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Data-driven stock valuation

Trip.com Group Ltd (9961) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Trip.com Group Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$221B (≈ $28.2B) · ISIN KYG9066F1019

At a glance

TC Trip.com Group Ltd 9961 · HK
PriceHK$316.60
Fair ValueHK$577.85
Upside+82.5%
Quality65/100

A solid business, trading 45% below our fair value of HK$577.85.

As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Trip.com Group Ltd is HK$577.85 per share against a price of HK$316.60, so the fair value sits 83% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +27.8 %/yr)
Highly profitable · 48.7% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (11/15)
Wide moat 72/100
!The models disagree: range HK$408.36 to HK$1,413
!Weak on dividend: 12 out of 100
Evidence: High Range HK$408.36 to HK$1,413

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 27 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$620.95 to HK$577.85 (−6.9%) since Jul 12, 2026. Share price −13.2% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$408.36). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$408.36 to HK$1,413). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$609.00 HK$125.57 Fair Value HK$577.85 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$125.57 – HK$609.00 · fair‑value band HK$408.36 – HK$1,413 · the HK$316.60 price screens below the HK$577.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Trip.com Group Ltd (9961) currently trades at HK$316.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$577.85, implying the stock looks roughly 45.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$1,804 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$316.60 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$181.97, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Trip.com Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$62.4B at a net margin of 53.4%. Revenue grew 20.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$14.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Scenario range: HK$408.36 (bear) to HK$1,413 (bull), the price of HK$316.60 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 83%, 9961 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$27.43 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$440.82 HK$676.71 HK$1,448 75
EPV HK$213.78 HK$241.69 HK$266.50 74
Growth DCF HK$418.68 HK$758.02 HK$1,473 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$440.82 HK$676.71 HK$1,448 75
Owner Earnings HK$943.30 HK$2,135 HK$4,750 70
5Y Revenue Exit HK$225.27 HK$313.78 HK$496.07 72
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$342.61 HK$551.13 HK$959.63 73
5Y P/E Exit HK$830.33 HK$1,926 HK$3,444 67
10Y Revenue Exit HK$284.77 HK$476.70 HK$572.64 67
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$376.31 HK$735.34 HK$1,350 65
10Y P/E Exit HK$740.35 HK$1,810 HK$3,627 59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$359.53 HK$2,507 HK$3,519 63
Lynch FV HK$980.41 HK$1,401 HK$1,821 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$980.41 HK$1,401 HK$1,821 57
EPV HK$213.78 HK$241.69 HK$266.50 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$21.74 HK$47.46 HK$79.85 65
DDM Multi-Stage HK$21.74 HK$38.87 HK$49.46 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$872.39 HK$1,163 HK$1,454 63
P/S Multiple HK$89.20 HK$118.93 HK$148.66 58
P/B Multiple HK$674.12 HK$898.83 HK$1,124 55
EV/EBIT HK$393.80 HK$506.51 HK$619.23 66
EV/EBITDA HK$296.73 HK$377.09 HK$457.45 67
EV/Revenue HK$138.90 HK$174.58 HK$210.26 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$135.80 HK$181.97 HK$271.59 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$418.68 HK$758.02 HK$1,473 74
Rev-Margin DCF HK$227.96 HK$351.61 HK$586.34 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$378.30 HK$537.29 HK$3,162 64
ROIC Compounder HK$213.78 HK$241.69 HK$266.50 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1,263 HK$1,804 HK$2,346 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$1,804) versus Dividend Discount (HK$38.87). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 6.3 as of Jul 12, 2026
P/S ratio 3.37 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$45.46 price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.3
Dividend yield 0.6% payout 4.3%
Net margin 53.3% FY2025
Return on equity 20.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% avg 5y
Operating margin 24.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$64.8B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +17.2% 3y avg +46.0%
EPS growth (YoY) −39.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$13.6B FY2025
Net cash HK$14.5B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28

Profitability 57
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 62
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 55
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 64
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally.

Full company description

Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally. It acts as an agent for hotel-related transactions and selling air tickets, as well as provides train, long-distance bus, and ferry tickets; travel insurance products, such as flight delay, air accident, and baggage loss coverage; and air-ticket delivery, online check-in and seat selection, express security screening, real-time flight status tracker, and airport VIP lounge services. The company also provides travelers bundled packaged-tour products, such as group, semi-group, and customized and packaged tours with various transportation arrangements, including air, cruise, bus, and car rental services. In addition, it offers integrated transportation and accommodation services; ticket, activity, insurance, visa, and tour guide services; and user support, supplier management, and customer relationship management services; and in-destination products and services. Further, the company provides Trip.Biz, a digital first, full-service, corporate travel management business which provides technology-enabled solutions for organizations managing business travel. Additionally, it offers online advertising and financial services, such as marketing planning and travel media services; Omni-Channel Touchpoints for Users; and Open Platform for Ecosystem Partners. It operates under the Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, Travix, Travelfusion, and Skyscanner brand names. The company was formerly known as Ctrip.com International, Ltd. and changed its name to Trip.com Group Limited in October 2019. Trip.com Group Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Singapore.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Trip.com Group Ltd reported revenue of 62.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 20.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +32.9%/yr. Reported net income was 33.3B CNY in FY2025.

Growth Quality 91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$62.4B
Latest YoY
+17.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+46.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+27.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+44.4%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
≈ +8.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+7.5%
Dividend yield0.6%
Trend Two data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 32.1% vs 10Y 29.1%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−7.8% (2020) → 25.3% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop157% (2016) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in HKD
⚠ Final year 2025 sits 223% above trend (one-off), rate on operating basis
Revenue +32.9%/yr
FY21 20.0B CNY
FY22 20.0B CNY
FY23 44.5B CNY
FY24 53.3B CNY
FY25 62.4B CNY
Net income
FY21 −550M CNY
FY22 1.4B CNY
FY23 9.9B CNY
FY24 17.1B CNY
FY25 33.3B CNY

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Trip.com Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9961

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Travel Services · 90 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +78% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 20% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 49% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 24% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 17% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.07× · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.21× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 3.20× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 1.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 10.1× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.83× · Priciest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Trip.com Group Ltd deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+1.6 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+27.8 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.7 %
FCF yield on price6.14 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.8 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 20
FUTURE86 · sector 25
PAST81 · sector 31
HEALTH97 · sector 97
DIVIDEND12 · sector 40

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Booking Holdings BKNG $193.29 $152.94 −21%
Airbnb, Inc ABNB $181.94 $85.66 −53%
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL $264.50 $215.19 −19%
Viking Holdings VIK $85.03 $43.68 −49%
Carnival Corporation CCL $23.20 $31.36 +35%
Expedia Group EXPE $303.14 $248.63 −18%
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH $15.39 $20.28 +32%
Global Business Travel Group GBTG $9.44 $5.04 −47%
Travel + Leisure Co TNL $66.40 $26.57 −60%
MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT $60.31 $19.30 −68%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Trip.com Group Ltd (9961) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$577.85 versus a price of HK$316.60, about +83% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9961?
Our model-based fair value for Trip.com Group Ltd is HK$577.85 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$316.60.
What is the quality score of 9961?
Trip.com Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Trip.com Group Ltd (9961)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$577.85 (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$408.36, optimistic scenario HK$1,413. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Trip.com Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$577.85, about +83% upside versus a price of HK$316.60 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$408.36, optimistic scenario HK$1,413. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Trip.com Group Ltd (9961)?
Trip.com Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$62.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 9961?
The net profit margin of Trip.com Group Ltd is about 53.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 53.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Trip.com Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Trip.com Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.61% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Trip.com Group Ltd (9961)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Trip.com Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +1.6 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.8 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +27.8 % per year. As of Aug 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9961 use?
Our models discount Trip.com Group Ltd at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Trip.com Group Ltd (9961)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Trip.com Group Ltd it is HK$577.85 per share (as of Aug 13, 2026), against a price of HK$316.60. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Trip.com Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 13, 2026, 9961 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$316.60, fair value HK$577.85, a gap of about +83% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9961?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$316.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$577.85). For Trip.com Group Ltd the two are HK$261.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Trip.com Group Ltd worth?
The market values Trip.com Group Ltd at about HK$221B (market capitalisation, as of Aug 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$316.60; our models calculate a fair value of HK$577.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9961?
Our models span a range for Trip.com Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$408.36, base HK$577.85, optimistic HK$1,413 per share (as of Aug 13, 2026, price HK$316.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9961?
Trip.com Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.3 (as of Aug 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$577.85 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 1.2, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 10.1.
What is the PEG ratio of 9961?
The PEG ratio of Trip.com Group Ltd is 1.83 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Aug 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Trip.com Group Ltd (9961)?
Balance-sheet figures for Trip.com Group Ltd (as of Aug 13, 2026): return on equity 20.1%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9961 from its 52-week high?
Trip.com Group Ltd trades at HK$316.60, about 48% below its 52-week high of HK$613.00 (as of Aug 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$577.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Trip.com Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Booking Holdings, Airbnb, Inc, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, Viking Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Trip.com Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 13, 2026: price HK$316.60, calculated fair value HK$577.85 (+83%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9961 calculated?
We run Trip.com Group Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$577.85, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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