Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $8.9B
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings
NCLH · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +2.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from $15.21 (bear) to $25.35 (bull), base $20.28. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 31/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.38 – $33.71 · fair‑value band $15.21 – $25.35 · the $19.37 price screens below the $20.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) currently trades at $19.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.28, implying the stock looks roughly 4.7% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings generated revenue of $10.0B at a net margin of 5.7%. Revenue grew 9.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 29.5%. Net debt stands at $14.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $15.21 (bear case) to $25.35 (bull case); at $19.37, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at 5%, NCLH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($29.90) versus Asset-Based ($3.22). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a cruise company in North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It offers itineraries to destinations, such as Europe, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, South America, Africa, Canada, Bermuda, the Caribbean, and Alaska; and inter-island itinerary in Hawaii.
Full company description
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a cruise company in North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It offers itineraries to destinations, such as Europe, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, South America, Africa, Canada, Bermuda, the Caribbean, and Alaska; and inter-island itinerary in Hawaii. The company also provides features, amenities, and activities, including various accommodations, dining venues, bars and lounges, spas, casino and retail shopping areas, and entertainment choices; shore excursions at each port of call, and air transportation and hotel packages for stays before or after a voyage. It offers its products and services under the Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises brands. The company was founded in 1966 and is based in Miami, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings reported revenue of $9.8B in FY2025 versus $648M in FY2021, a compound +97.3%/yr. Reported net income was $423M in FY2025.
Watch NCLH: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) Stock Still Looks Undervalued On Its 27% Slide
- Why Norwegian Cruise Line Stock Is Sinking
- Why Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) Is Up 7.3% After Strong Q2 Earnings But Lowered Full-Year Outlook
- Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating ...
Peer Group
Travel Services · 88 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $182.80 | $152.94 | -16% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $148.62 | $57.47 | -61% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $286.96 | $215.19 | -25% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $100.69 | $43.51 | -57% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $26.41 | $31.36 | +19% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $268.77 | $248.63 | -7% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $42.45 | $88.82 | +109% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.40 | $4.17 | -56% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $73.27 | $27.29 | -63% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT | $55.23 | $19.66 | -64% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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