Travel + Leisure Co (TNL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Travel + Leisure Co $35.88, price $63.09, upside -43.1%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $29.09 – $78.45 · fair‑value band $35.88 – $61.39 · the $63.09 price screens above the $35.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Travel + Leisure Co., together with its subsidiaries, provides hospitality services and travel products in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Vacation Ownership; and Travel and Membership.
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Travel + Leisure Co., together with its subsidiaries, provides hospitality services and travel products in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Vacation Ownership; and Travel and Membership. The Vacation Ownership segment develops, markets, and sells vacation ownership interests (VOIs) to individual consumers, as well as offers consumer financing in connection with the sale of VOIs; and property management services at resorts; and This segment also experiences under hospitality and leisure brands, including Club Wyndham, WorldMark, Margaritaville Vacation Club, Sports Illustrated Resorts, Eddie Bauer Adventure Club, And Accor Vacation Club. The Travel and Membership segment operates various travel businesses, including vacation exchange brands, travel technology platforms, travel memberships, and direct-to-consumer rentals. This segment also offers business-to-business private-label travel club solutions and facilitates bookings. Travel + Leisure Co. has a strategic alliance with Hornblower Group, Inc. The company was formerly known as Wyndham Destinations, Inc. and changed its name to Travel + Leisure Co. in February 2021. Travel + Leisure Co. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.
Stock analysis
Travel + Leisure Co (TNL) currently trades at $63.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.88, implying the stock looks roughly 75.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $76.33 per share, and 7 of the 20 models we run sit above the $63.09 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $17.53, and 13 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $35.88 (bear) to $61.39 (bull), the price of $63.09 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Travel + Leisure Co reported revenue of $4.0B in FY2025 versus $3.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was $230M in FY2025, compounding −7.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.6B · P/E ratio 17.6 · P/S ratio 1.01 · EPS (TTM) $3.59 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.2% · Operating margin 18.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −43%, TNL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $35.88Fair Value $35.88Bull $61.39
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9583 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.1% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+0.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5% vs −4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−5% → 18%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.0% a year for the price and +0.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Travel Services · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−43% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)17.6× · Pricier than median
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.13× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF8.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA10.4× · Pricier than median
PEG0.53× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)15· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)72· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Travel + Leisure Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TNL
Frequently asked questions
Is Travel + Leisure Co (TNL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $35.88 versus a price of $63.09, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TNL?
Our model-based fair value for Travel + Leisure Co is $35.88 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $63.09.
What is the quality score of TNL?
Travel + Leisure Co has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Travel + Leisure Co (TNL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $35.88 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $35.88, optimistic scenario $61.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Travel + Leisure Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $35.88, about −43% upside versus a price of $63.09 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $35.88, optimistic scenario $61.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Travel + Leisure Co (TNL)?
Travel + Leisure Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Travel + Leisure Co pay a dividend?
Travel + Leisure Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.61% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Travel + Leisure Co (TNL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Travel + Leisure Co would have to grow free cash flow by +9.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TNL use?
Our models discount Travel + Leisure Co at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.19, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Travel + Leisure Co that is +9.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Travel + Leisure Co (TNL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Travel + Leisure Co grew +13.2 % a year. The price currently implies +9.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Travel + Leisure Co (TNL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Travel + Leisure Co (+9.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Travel + Leisure Co (TNL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.39 %: that much free cash flow Travel + Leisure Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Travel + Leisure Co (TNL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Travel + Leisure Co it is $35.88 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $63.09. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Travel + Leisure Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TNL trades above its calculated fair value: price $63.09, fair value $35.88, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TNL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($63.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($35.88). For Travel + Leisure Co the two are $27.21 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Travel + Leisure Co worth?
The market values Travel + Leisure Co at about $4.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $63.09; our models calculate a fair value of $35.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TNL?
Our models span a range for Travel + Leisure Co: cautious scenario $35.88, base $35.88, optimistic $61.39 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $63.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TNL?
Travel + Leisure Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $35.88 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 10.4.
What is the PEG ratio of TNL?
The PEG ratio of Travel + Leisure Co is 0.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Travel + Leisure Co (TNL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Travel + Leisure Co (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TNL from its 52-week high?
Travel + Leisure Co trades at $63.09, about 20% below its 52-week high of $78.45 and 11% above the low of $56.68 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $35.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Travel + Leisure Co?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Booking Holdings, Airbnb, Inc, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, Viking Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Travel + Leisure Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $63.09, calculated fair value $35.88 (−43%), Quality Score 62/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TNL calculated?
We run Travel + Leisure Co through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $35.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Travel + Leisure Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Travel + Leisure Co (TNL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $63.09. Our model-based fair value is $35.88, about −43% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Travel + Leisure Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($61.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Travel + Leisure Co (TNL) come from?
Earnings per share at Travel + Leisure Co grew −0.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.0 %, EBIT margin +2.1 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Travel + Leisure Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Travel + Leisure Co (TNL)?
The market capitalisation of Travel + Leisure Co is $4.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Travel + Leisure Co (TNL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Travel + Leisure Co is 1.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Travel + Leisure Co (TNL)?
Earnings per share at Travel + Leisure Co are $3.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Travel + Leisure Co (TNL)?
The dividend yield of Travel + Leisure Co is 3.6% (payout 63.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Travel + Leisure Co (TNL)?
The net margin of Travel + Leisure Co is 5.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Travel + Leisure Co (TNL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Travel + Leisure Co is 10.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Travel + Leisure Co (TNL)?
The operating margin of Travel + Leisure Co is 18.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Travel + Leisure Co (TNL)?
Revenue at Travel + Leisure Co is growing +2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Travel + Leisure Co (TNL)?
Earnings per share at Travel + Leisure Co are growing +14.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Travel + Leisure Co (TNL) carry?
The net debt of Travel + Leisure Co is $4.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026