Travel + Leisure Co (TNL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $4.6B
Travel + Leisure Co
TNL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 20 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $27.19 to $27.29 (+0.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +5.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 64% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($34.09). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $29.09 – $78.45 · fair‑value band $20.22 – $34.09 · the $76.70 price screens above the $27.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Travel + Leisure Co (TNL) currently trades at $76.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.29, implying the stock looks roughly 64.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Travel + Leisure Co generated revenue of $4.0B at a net margin of 5.8%. Revenue grew 2.9% year over year. Net debt stands at $4.7B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 19.7. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $20.22 (bear case) to $34.09 (bull case); at $76.70, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at -64%, TNL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 20 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($76.33) versus Growth DCF ($3.39). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Travel + Leisure Co., together with its subsidiaries, provides hospitality services and travel products in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Vacation Ownership; and Travel and Membership.
Full company description
Travel + Leisure Co., together with its subsidiaries, provides hospitality services and travel products in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Vacation Ownership; and Travel and Membership. The Vacation Ownership segment develops, markets, and sells vacation ownership interests (VOIs) to individual consumers, as well as offers consumer financing in connection with the sale of VOIs; and property management services at resorts; and This segment also experiences under hospitality and leisure brands, including Club Wyndham, WorldMark, Margaritaville Vacation Club, Sports Illustrated Resorts, Eddie Bauer Adventure Club, And Accor Vacation Club. The Travel and Membership segment operates various travel businesses, including vacation exchange brands, travel technology platforms, travel memberships, and direct-to-consumer rentals. This segment also offers business-to-business private-label travel club solutions and facilitates bookings. Travel + Leisure Co. has a strategic alliance with Hornblower Group, Inc. The company was formerly known as Wyndham Destinations, Inc. and changed its name to Travel + Leisure Co. in February 2021. Travel + Leisure Co. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Travel + Leisure Co reported revenue of $4.0B in FY2025 versus $3.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was $230M in FY2025, compounding −7.0%/yr from FY2021.
TNL screens 64% overvalued. Compare with Booking Holdings →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Travel+Leisure Co (TNL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Growth and Strategic ...
- Travel + Leisure Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Compared to Estimates, Travel Leisure Co. (TNL) Q2 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics
- Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) Lags Q2 Earnings Estimates
Peer Group
Travel Services · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 54/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $182.80 | $152.94 | -16% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $148.62 | $57.47 | -61% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $286.96 | $215.19 | -25% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $100.69 | $43.51 | -57% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $26.41 | $31.36 | +19% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $268.77 | $248.63 | -7% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $42.45 | $88.82 | +109% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $19.46 | $20.28 | +4% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.40 | $4.17 | -56% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT | $55.23 | $19.66 | -64% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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