CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd HK$33.46, price HK$65.00, upside -48.5%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$29.02 – HK$66.55 · fair‑value band HK$24.97 – HK$47.60 · the HK$65.00 price screens above the HK$33.46 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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CK Infrastructure Holdings Limited, an infrastructure company, invests in, develops, and operates infrastructure businesses in Hong Kong, Mainland China, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the United States.
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CK Infrastructure Holdings Limited, an infrastructure company, invests in, develops, and operates infrastructure businesses in Hong Kong, Mainland China, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the United States. The company invests in energy infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, water infrastructure, waste management, waste-to-energy, household infrastructure, project management, and infrastructure-related businesses. It is also involved in the production and laying of asphalt; manufacture, distribution, and sale of cement; and property investment, securities investment, and waste management activities. The company was formerly known as Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Limited and changed its name to CK Infrastructure Holdings Limited in May 2017. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. CK Infrastructure Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of CK Hutchison Holdings Limited.
Stock analysis
CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038) currently trades at HK$65.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$33.46, 48.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$58.72 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$65.00 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at HK$8.00, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: HK$24.97 (bear) to HK$47.60 (bull), the price of HK$65.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$4.4B in FY2025 versus HK$7.0B in FY2021, a compound −11.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$8.7B in FY2025, compounding +3.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$164B (≈ $20.9B) · P/E ratio 6.4 · P/S ratio 12.7 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 509% · Return on equity 17.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9% · Operating margin 22.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −49%, 1038 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$24.97Fair Value HK$33.46Bull HK$47.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.3% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.0% vs −2.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.44% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+37.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +34.8% a year for the price and −2.6% for the forecasts.
Compare CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 152 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−48.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets0.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)197.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)22.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)6.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.28× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)33.13× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF87.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG3.79× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)35· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)69· sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)93· sector 51
DIVIDEND (yield)81· sector 68
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$33.46 versus a price of HK$65.00, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1038?
Our model-based fair value for CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd is HK$33.46 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$65.00.
What is the quality score of 1038?
CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$33.46 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$24.97, optimistic scenario HK$47.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$33.46, about −49% upside versus a price of HK$65.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$24.97, optimistic scenario HK$47.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038)?
CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$4.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +37.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -9.3 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1038 use?
Our models discount CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd that is +37.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd grew -9.3 % a year. The price currently implies +37.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (+37.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.15 %: that much free cash flow CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd it is HK$33.46 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$65.00. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1038 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$65.00, fair value HK$33.46, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1038?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$65.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$33.46). For CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd the two are HK$31.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd at about HK$164B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$65.00; our models calculate a fair value of HK$33.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1038?
Our models span a range for CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$24.97, base HK$33.46, optimistic HK$47.60 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$65.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1038?
CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.4 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$33.46 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 19.8 (reported for FY2025: 18.8). Other multiples: PEG 3.8, P/B 1.3, P/S 33.1.
What is the PEG ratio of 1038?
The PEG ratio of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd is 3.79 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038)?
Balance-sheet figures for CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 17.2%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1038 from its 52-week high?
CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd trades at HK$65.00, about 2% below its 52-week high of HK$66.55 and 33% above the low of HK$49.01 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$33.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$65.00, calculated fair value HK$33.46 (−49%), Quality Score 60/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1038 calculated?
We run CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$33.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was HK$65.00. Our model-based fair value is HK$33.46, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$47.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$24.97 to HK$47.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038) come from?
Earnings per share at CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd grew −8.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.1 %, EBIT margin −8.5 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038)?
The market capitalisation of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd is HK$164B (≈ $20.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd is 12.7 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038)?
The dividend yield of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd is 4.0% (payout 80.2%, on adjusted earnings, reported 76.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038)?
The net margin of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd is 509% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd is 17.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038)?
The operating margin of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd is 22.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038)?
Revenue at CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd is growing +7.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038)?
Earnings per share at CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd are growing +389% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038) carry?
The net debt of CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd is HK$23.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 12.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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