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Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Universe International Holdings Ltd HK$0.94, price HK$1.34, upside -29.6%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Communication Services · HK · ISIN BMG928811790

UI Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Universe International Holdings Ltd

1046 · HK

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value HK$0.9400 · Overvalued (−29.6%)
✓Quality 60/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +15.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/12)
!Narrow moat 19/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 2 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$1.50 HK$0.2260 Fair Value HK$0.9400 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.2260 – HK$1.50 · fair‑value band HK$0.6400 – HK$1.66 · the HK$1.34 price screens above the HK$0.9400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Universe Entertainment and Culture Group Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the video and film distribution and exhibition, and film rights and television series licensing and sub-licensing businesses.

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Universe Entertainment and Culture Group Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the video and film distribution and exhibition, and film rights and television series licensing and sub-licensing businesses. It operates through Video Distribution, Film Distribution and Exhibition, Licensing and Sub-Licensing of Film Rights; Trading, Wholesaling, and Retailing of Optical Products and Watches Products; Leasing of Investment Properties; Securities Investments; Financial Printing Services; and Others segments. The company offers film production; securities investment; and financial printing services, including typesetting, translation, printing, design, distribution, and other related services. It is also involved in the entertainment business; leasing of investment properties; investment in films and television production, as well as concerts and licensing of film rights; management of contracted artistes; licensing and sub-licensing of music programmes; and wholesale and retail of watches and optical products. In addition, the company operates a model agency and optical shops; and engages as an advertising and purchasing agent. It operates in Hong Kong, the People's Republic of China, rest of Asia, and internationally. Universe Entertainment and Culture Group Company Limited was formerly known as Universe International Financial Holdings Limited and changed its name to Universe Entertainment and Culture Group Company Limited in October 2018. Universe Entertainment and Culture Group Company Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Kwai Chung, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046) currently trades at HK$1.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.9400, 29.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$1.03 per share, and 4 of the 14 models we run sit above the HK$1.34 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.1800, and 10 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.6400 (bear) to HK$1.66 (bull), the price of HK$1.34 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Universe International Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$473M in FY2025 versus HK$603M in FY2021, a compound −5.9%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$63.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$335M (≈ $42.8M) · P/S ratio 1.19 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0200 · Net margin −13.4% · Return on equity 0.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5% · Operating margin −16.9% · Revenue (TTM) HK$281M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 377% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −30%, 1046 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.6400 Fair Value HK$0.9400 Bull HK$1.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0200 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$0.7200 HK$1.03 HK$1.99 77
Growth DCF HK$0.6900 HK$1.17 HK$1.95 76
EPV HK$0.1900 HK$0.2000 HK$0.2000 74
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.7200 HK$1.03 HK$1.99 77
Owner Earnings HK$4.42 HK$9.61 HK$20.10 71
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.3800 HK$0.4700 HK$0.6600 73
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.75 HK$5.26 HK$10.22 71
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.4800 HK$0.7100 HK$0.8000 68
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.17 HK$5.70 HK$12.17 63
Earnings-Based
EPV HK$0.1900 HK$0.2000 HK$0.2000 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT HK$0.2600 HK$0.2900 HK$0.3300 66
EV/EBITDA HK$3.45 HK$4.55 HK$5.64 67
EV/Revenue HK$0.2300 HK$0.2700 HK$0.3000 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1300 HK$0.1800 HK$0.2700 53
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.6900 HK$1.17 HK$1.95 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.3900 HK$0.5200 HK$0.7800 72
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder HK$0.1900 HK$0.2000 HK$0.2000 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 58
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 93
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+29.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+54.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +21.0% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−8.0% (2020) → 1.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.1% a year for the price.

1046 screens overvalued: fair value 30% below the price. Compare with Netflix, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Entertainment · 243 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −29.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 0.6% · Below median
Return on assets 1.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 0.4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −16.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −76.8% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.18× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.15× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 1.3× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.85× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 23
PAST (return on equity)2 · sector 5
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 47

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Entertainment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Netflix, Inc NFLX $71.15 $78.27 +10%
The Walt Disney Company DIS $106.15 $101.23 −5%
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc WBD $30.86 $13.47 −56%
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc LYV $170.87 $48.93 −71%
TKO Group TKO $182.67 $69.66 −62%
Universal Music Group UMG €14.59 €16.05 +10%
Fox Corporation FOX $56.54 $65.92 +17%
Formula One Group FWONK $94.61 $104.07 +10%
Roku, Inc ROKU $152.67 $42.86 −72%
News Corporation NWS $31.75 $17.05 −46%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Universe International Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1046

Frequently asked questions

Is Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.9400 versus a price of HK$1.34, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1046?
Our model-based fair value for Universe International Holdings Ltd is HK$0.9400 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.34.
What is the quality score of 1046?
Universe International Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.9400 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.6400, optimistic scenario HK$1.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Universe International Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.9400, about −30% upside versus a price of HK$1.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.6400, optimistic scenario HK$1.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046)?
Universe International Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$281M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Universe International Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +20.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.8 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1046 use?
Our models discount Universe International Holdings Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Universe International Holdings Ltd that is +20.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Universe International Holdings Ltd grew +15.8 % a year. The price currently implies +20.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Universe International Holdings Ltd (+20.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.67 %: that much free cash flow Universe International Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Universe International Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.9400 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$1.34. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Universe International Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1046 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$1.34, fair value HK$0.9400, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1046?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.9400). For Universe International Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.3950 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Universe International Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Universe International Holdings Ltd at about HK$335M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.34; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.9400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1046?
Our models span a range for Universe International Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.6400, base HK$0.9400, optimistic HK$1.66 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$1.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 1046?
The PEG ratio of Universe International Holdings Ltd is 0.85 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046)?
Balance-sheet figures for Universe International Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 0.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1046 from its 52-week high?
Universe International Holdings Ltd trades at HK$1.34, about 11% below its 52-week high of HK$1.50 and 377% above the low of HK$0.2800 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.9400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Universe International Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Netflix, Inc, The Walt Disney Company, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc, Live Nation Entertainment, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Universe International Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$1.34, calculated fair value HK$0.9400 (−30%), Quality Score 60/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1046 calculated?
We run Universe International Holdings Ltd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.9400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Universe International Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.34. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.9400, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Universe International Holdings Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.6400 to HK$1.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Universe International Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046)?
The market capitalisation of Universe International Holdings Ltd is HK$335M (≈ $42.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Universe International Holdings Ltd is 1.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046)?
Earnings per share at Universe International Holdings Ltd are HK$0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046)?
The net margin of Universe International Holdings Ltd is −13.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Universe International Holdings Ltd is 0.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Universe International Holdings Ltd is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046)?
The operating margin of Universe International Holdings Ltd is −16.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046)?
Revenue at Universe International Holdings Ltd is growing −76.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +54.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046)?
Earnings per share at Universe International Holdings Ltd are growing +10.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Universe International Holdings Ltd (1046) hold?
Universe International Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$128M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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