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China Shenhua Energy Company (1088) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · HK · Market cap HK$920B

CS China Shenhua Energy Company 1088 · HK
PriceHK$42.84
Fair ValueHK$37.34
Upside-12.8%
Quality66/100
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Mixed Growth
Solidly profitable · 17.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
4.80% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
Moderate moat 61/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$26.14 – HK$53.58 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 21 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from HK$25.66 to HK$37.34 (+45.5%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price +5.7% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 13% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$26.14 to HK$53.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$47.81 HK$8.05 Fair Value HK$37.34 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$8.05 – HK$47.81 · fair‑value band HK$26.14 – HK$53.58 · the HK$42.84 price screens above the HK$37.34 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

China Shenhua Energy Company (1088) currently trades at HK$42.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$37.34, implying the stock looks roughly 12.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, China Shenhua Energy Company generated revenue of HK$296B at a net margin of 17.8%. Revenue grew 1.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$67.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$26.14 (bear case) to HK$53.58 (bull case); at HK$42.84, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -2% fair-value upside, at -13%, 1088 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$19.27 HK$26.52 HK$37.11 80
Residual Income HK$19.90 HK$23.72 HK$42.08 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$24.81 HK$38.24 HK$52.86 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$18.81 HK$26.67 HK$38.70 38
Owner Earnings HK$19.66 HK$27.96 HK$40.66 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$24.81 HK$38.28 HK$55.20 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$35.85 HK$58.23 HK$83.77 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$31.77 HK$50.86 HK$70.29 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$21.73 HK$33.62 HK$48.97 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$29.63 HK$47.53 HK$70.57 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$27.01 HK$42.40 HK$60.38 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$18.09 HK$46.61 HK$60.70 54
PEG = 1.0 HK$8.77 HK$12.53 HK$16.29 46
EPV HK$31.36 HK$36.28 HK$40.66 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$32.25 HK$66.37 HK$118.47 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$32.25 HK$50.31 HK$70.68 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$39.90 HK$53.20 HK$66.50 63
P/S Multiple HK$27.83 HK$37.11 HK$46.39 58
P/B Multiple HK$33.91 HK$45.22 HK$56.52 55
EV/EBIT HK$52.38 HK$68.68 HK$84.99 53
EV/EBITDA HK$50.41 HK$66.06 HK$81.72 54
EV/Revenue HK$29.42 HK$40.56 HK$51.69 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$10.30 HK$13.80 HK$20.59 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$19.27 HK$26.52 HK$37.11 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$24.81 HK$38.24 HK$52.86 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$19.90 HK$23.72 HK$42.08 76
ROIC Compounder HK$32.81 HK$40.46 HK$49.37 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$31.15 HK$44.51 HK$57.86 68

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$50.31) versus Asset-Based (HK$13.80). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$296B
Revenue growth (YoY) +1.2%
Net margin 17.8%
Return on equity 11.7%
Free cash flow HK$26.7B FY2025
P/E ratio 14.2
More key figures
Operating margin 25.3%
EPS (TTM) HK$2.74
Dividend yield 4.8%
EPS growth (YoY) -12.2%
Net cash HK$67.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64

Profitability 48
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 90
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 71
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 68
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of coal and electricity in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Coal Operations, Power Operations, Railway Operations, Port Operations, Shipping Operations, and Coal Chemical Operations.

Full company description

China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of coal and electricity in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Coal Operations, Power Operations, Railway Operations, Port Operations, Shipping Operations, and Coal Chemical Operations. The Coal Operations segment produces and sells coal from surface and underground mines. The Power Operations segment generates and sells electric power to power grid companies. This segment also generates electric power through coal, thermal, water, photovoltaic, and gas. The Railway Operations segment provides railway transportation services. The Port Operations segment offers loading, transportation, and storage services. The Shipping Operations segment provides shipment transportation services. The Coal Chemical Operations segment produces methanol; and processes and sells polyethylene and polypropylene, as well as other by-products. It is also involved in coal-to-olefins businesses. China Shenhua Energy Company Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. China Shenhua Energy Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Chnenergy Investment Group Co.,LTD.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Shenhua Energy Company reported revenue of HK$295B in FY2025 versus HK$335B in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$52.8B in FY2025, compounding +1.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 58/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$295B
Latest YoY
−12.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−5.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+4.8%
Avg. growth/yr (21Y)
+10.1%
Revenue −3.2%/yr
FY21 HK$335B
FY22 HK$345B
FY23 HK$343B
FY24 HK$338B
FY25 HK$295B
Net income +1.4%/yr
FY21 HK$50.1B
FY22 HK$69.6B
FY23 HK$59.7B
FY24 HK$58.7B
FY25 HK$52.8B

1088 screens 13% overvalued. Compare with Adani Enterprises Limited →

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China Shenhua Energy Company · Fair Value
HK$37.34 −13%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Shenhua Energy Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1088

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Thermal Coal · 101 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −13% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 25% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.8% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.07× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.25× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 3.11× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 4.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 9.0× · Pricier than median
PEG 10.55× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 16 · sector 25
FUTURE 6 · sector 0
PAST 47 · sector 21
HEALTH 97 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 96 · sector 27

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Coal Oil & gas

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT ₹3,157 ₹901.17 -71%
Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 ¥24.30 ¥23.90 -2%
Yankuang Energy Group 600188 ¥20.23 ¥13.24 -35%
Coal India Limited COALINDIA ₹427.65 ₹464.01 +9%
China Coal Energy Company 601898 ¥12.54 ¥13.97 +11%
Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 ¥25.13 ¥21.99 -12%
Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 ¥15.36 ¥8.42 -45%
PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk, ADRO 2,490 IDR 3,220 IDR +29%
PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk, through its subsidiaries, CUAN 630.00 IDR 360.72 IDR -43%
PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk AADI 8,425 IDR 15,951 IDR +89%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Shenhua Energy Company (1088) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$37.34 versus a price of HK$42.84, about −13% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1088?
Our model-based fair value for China Shenhua Energy Company is HK$37.34 (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$42.84.
What is the quality score of 1088?
China Shenhua Energy Company has a Quality Score of 66/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Shenhua Energy Company (1088)?
China Shenhua Energy Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$296B (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1088?
The net profit margin of China Shenhua Energy Company is about 17.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 17.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Shenhua Energy Company pay a dividend?
China Shenhua Energy Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.32% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 17, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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