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Jiayuan Services Holdings (1153) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$196M

JS Jiayuan Services Holdings 1153 · HK
PriceHK$0.4000
Fair ValueHK$0.2459
Upside-38.5%
Quality62/100
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Expensive Growth
Solidly profitable · 15.7% net margin
Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (9/12)
Moderate moat 47/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.1852 – HK$0.3074 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 15, 2026

From 11 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price +14.3% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 39% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.3074). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$3.46 HK$0.2490 Fair Value HK$0.2459 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.2490 – HK$3.46 · fair‑value band HK$0.1852 – HK$0.3074 · the HK$0.4000 price screens above the HK$0.2459 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.

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Analysis

Jiayuan Services Holdings (1153) currently trades at HK$0.4000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2459, implying the stock looks roughly 38.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Jiayuan Services Holdings generated revenue of HK$821M at a net margin of 15.7%. Revenue declined 4.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$21.1M. Fundamentals as of Aug 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1852 (bear case) to HK$0.3074 (bull case); at HK$0.4000, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at -39%, 1153 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.4900 HK$0.6300 HK$0.7800 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.8000 HK$1.28 HK$1.82 74
P/S Multiple HK$2.69 HK$3.59 HK$4.48 58
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.4900 HK$0.6400 HK$0.8300 38
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.8000 HK$1.28 HK$1.90 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.12 HK$1.87 HK$2.73 41
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.6300 HK$0.9900 HK$1.47 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.8200 HK$1.33 HK$2.01 37
Multiples
P/S Multiple HK$2.69 HK$3.59 HK$4.48 58
EV/EBIT HK$1.97 HK$2.60 HK$3.24 53
EV/EBITDA HK$1.83 HK$2.42 HK$3.02 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.11 HK$1.56 HK$2.01 43
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.4900 HK$0.6300 HK$0.7800 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.8000 HK$1.28 HK$1.82 74

Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$2.42) versus Growth DCF (HK$0.6300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$821M
Revenue growth (YoY) -4.8%
Net margin 15.7%
Return on equity 17.5%
Free cash flow HK$32.2M FY2025
P/E ratio 1.3 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 0.2%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.2300
EPS growth (YoY) +122%
Net cash HK$21.1M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39

Profitability 78
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 37
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Jiayuan Services Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides property management services to property owners, property developers, residents, and tenants in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

Jiayuan Services Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides property management services to property owners, property developers, residents, and tenants in the People's Republic of China. It offers value-added services, including consultancy services to property developers; and cleaning, security, gardening, landscaping, greening, repair, and maintenance services to property developers at the property pre-delivery stage. The company also provides community value-added services, comprising home living services; and community area services, such as catering services and sales of goods. Jiayuan Services Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Jiayuan Services Holdings reported revenue of HK$821M in FY2025 versus HK$821M in FY2021, a compound +0.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$129M in FY2025, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 55/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$821M
Latest YoY
−4.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−4.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.0%
Avg. growth/yr (8Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.6%
Revenue +0.0%/yr
FY21 HK$821M
FY22 HK$945M
FY23 HK$868M
FY24 HK$859M
FY25 HK$821M
Net income +6.5%/yr
FY21 HK$100M
FY22 −HK$664M
FY23 −HK$80.9M
FY24 HK$8.2M
FY25 HK$129M

1153 screens 39% overvalued. Compare with Plaza S.A →

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Jiayuan Services Holdings · Fair Value
HK$0.2459 −39%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jiayuan Services Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1153

Peer Group

Real Estate Services · 528 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −38% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 16% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -5% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 1.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.24× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 1.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 34
FUTURE 0 · sector 10
PAST 70 · sector 16
HEALTH 100 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 59

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 15, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA 3,989 CLP 4,571 CLP +15%
PT Solusi Tunas Pratama Tbk SUPR 43,850 IDR 15,049 IDR -66%
Cencosud Shopping S.A CENCOMALLS 2,412 CLP 2,976 CLP +23%
PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk. owns and TOWR 392.00 IDR 1,012 IDR +158%
PT Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk MKPI 22,000 IDR 19,160 IDR -13%
PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses Tbk, CBDK 3,610 IDR 3,464 IDR -4%
IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad Anónima, IRSA 2,495 ARS 2,990 ARS +20%
PT Plaza Indonesia Realty Tbk PLIN 2,510 IDR 2,698 IDR +7%
PT MNC Tourism Indonesia Tbk, KPIG 74.00 IDR 122.12 IDR +65%
PT Indonesian Paradise Property Tbk INPP 770.00 IDR 291.52 IDR -62%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Jiayuan Services Holdings (1153) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.2459 versus a price of HK$0.4000, about −39% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1153?
Our model-based fair value for Jiayuan Services Holdings is HK$0.2459 (as of Aug 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.4000.
What is the quality score of 1153?
Jiayuan Services Holdings has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Jiayuan Services Holdings (1153)?
Jiayuan Services Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$821M (latest available figure, as of Aug 15, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1153?
The net profit margin of Jiayuan Services Holdings is about 15.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 15.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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