Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd HK$0.86, price HK$0.33, upside +161.5%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2490 – HK$3.46 · fair‑value band HK$0.5330 – HK$1.28 · the HK$0.3300 price screens below the HK$0.8630 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Jiayuan Services Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides property management services to property owners, property developers, residents, and tenants in the People's Republic of China.
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Jiayuan Services Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides property management services to property owners, property developers, residents, and tenants in the People's Republic of China. It offers value-added services, including consultancy services to property developers; and cleaning, security, gardening, landscaping, greening, repair, and maintenance services to property developers at the property pre-delivery stage. The company also provides community value-added services, comprising home living services; and community area services, such as catering services and sales of goods. Jiayuan Services Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153) currently trades at HK$0.3300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.8630, implying the stock looks roughly 61.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$2.84 per share, and 11 of the 11 models we run sit above the HK$0.3300 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at HK$1.03, and 0 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.5330 (bear) to HK$1.28 (bull), the price of HK$0.3300 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 821M CNY in FY2025 versus 821M CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.0%/yr. Reported net income was 129M CNY in FY2025, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$202M (≈ $25.7M) · P/E ratio 1.3 · P/S ratio 0.21 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.2300 · Net margin 15.7% · Return on equity 17.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.5% · Operating margin 0.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 162%, 1153 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.5330Fair Value HK$0.8630Bull HK$1.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.1720 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 9%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−18.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −19.5% a year for the price.
Compare Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 540 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+161.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets6.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)15.7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)1.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.21× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF5.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA1.6× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100· sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 64
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Is Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.8630 versus a price of HK$0.3300, about +162% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1153?
Our model-based fair value for Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd is HK$0.8630 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.3300.
What is the quality score of 1153?
Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.8630 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.5330, optimistic scenario HK$1.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.8630, about +162% upside versus a price of HK$0.3300 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.5330, optimistic scenario HK$1.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153)?
Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 821M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -18.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.0 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1153 use?
Our models discount Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.08, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd that is -18.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd grew +6.0 % a year. The price currently implies -18.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (-18.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.69 %: that much free cash flow Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.8630 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.3300. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1153 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.3300, fair value HK$0.8630, a gap of about +162% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1153?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.3300); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.8630). For Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.5330 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd at about HK$202M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.3300; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.8630 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1153?
Our models span a range for Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.5330, base HK$0.8630, optimistic HK$1.28 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.3300). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1153?
Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 1.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.8630 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 1.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1153 from its 52-week high?
Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.3300, about 37% below its 52-week high of HK$0.5200 and 25% above the low of HK$0.2650 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.8630 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value CBRE Group, KE Holdings, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.3300, calculated fair value HK$0.8630 (+162%), Quality Score 62/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1153 calculated?
We run Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.8630, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd currently trades 62 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was HK$0.3300. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.8630, about +162% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.5330). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.5330 to HK$1.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153)?
The market capitalisation of Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd is HK$202M (≈ $25.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd is 0.21 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153)?
Earnings per share at Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd are HK$0.2300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 1.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153)?
The net margin of Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd is 15.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd is 17.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd is 14.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153)?
The operating margin of Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd is 0.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153)?
Revenue at Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd is growing −4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153)?
Earnings per share at Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd are growing +122% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd (1153) hold?
Jiayuan Services Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, 21.1M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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