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Kinetic Development Group (1277) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · HK · Market cap HK$13.7B

KD Kinetic Development Group 1277 · HK
PriceHK$2.05
Fair ValueHK$1.19
Upside-41.8%
Quality56/100
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Mixed Growth
Solidly profitable · 16.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
6.43% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
Moderate moat 64/100
Evidence: High Range HK$1.01 – HK$2.35 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$1.69 to HK$1.19 (−29.6%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +24.7% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 42% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$1.01 to HK$2.35) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$2.52 HK$0.2177 Fair Value HK$1.19 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.2177 – HK$2.52 · fair‑value band HK$1.01 – HK$2.35 · the HK$2.05 price screens above the HK$1.19 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Kinetic Development Group (1277) currently trades at HK$2.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.19, implying the stock looks roughly 41.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Kinetic Development Group generated revenue of HK$5.3B at a net margin of 16.9%. Revenue declined 10.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.8%. Net debt stands at HK$847M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.01 (bear case) to HK$2.35 (bull case); at HK$2.05, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -5% fair-value upside, at -42%, 1277 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$1.41 HK$2.78 HK$5.45 80
Residual Income HK$0.8600 HK$0.9800 HK$1.83 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.7500 HK$1.43 HK$2.44 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$1.49 HK$2.49 HK$5.48 38
Owner Earnings HK$1.48 HK$3.46 HK$7.61 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.7500 HK$1.30 HK$2.35 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.9500 HK$1.72 HK$3.13 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$1.14 HK$2.39 HK$4.00 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.9500 HK$1.77 HK$2.55 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.11 HK$2.16 HK$4.03 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$1.24 HK$2.52 HK$4.73 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.7100 HK$4.94 HK$6.93 54
Lynch FV HK$1.55 HK$2.21 HK$2.88 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$1.55 HK$2.21 HK$2.88 46
EPV HK$1.05 HK$1.24 HK$1.40 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.09 HK$1.46 HK$1.82 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.5500 HK$0.7400 HK$0.9200 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.28 HK$1.71 HK$2.14 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.11 HK$1.51 HK$1.91 53
EV/EBITDA HK$0.7500 HK$1.03 HK$1.31 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.4400 HK$0.6600 HK$0.8800 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.4700 HK$0.6400 HK$0.9500 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.41 HK$2.78 HK$5.45 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.7500 HK$1.43 HK$2.44 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.8600 HK$0.9800 HK$1.83 76
ROIC Compounder HK$1.15 HK$1.67 HK$2.13 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.79 HK$2.56 HK$3.32 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$2.56) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.6400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$5.3B
Revenue growth (YoY) -10.9%
Net margin 16.9%
Return on equity 10.8%
Free cash flow HK$835M FY2025
P/E ratio 13.3 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 24.7%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0700
Dividend yield 6.4%
EPS growth (YoY) -67.5%
Net debt HK$847M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 5
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 65
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 74
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 58
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 59
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 62
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 79
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 78
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Kinetic Development Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the extraction and sale of coal products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through three segments: Coal Mining, Real Estate and Property Management, and Other.

Full company description

Kinetic Development Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the extraction and sale of coal products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through three segments: Coal Mining, Real Estate and Property Management, and Other. The company focuses on the development of its Dafanpu Coal Mine with a concession area of approximately 9.6 square kilometers located in Zhunge'er Banner, Ordos City, Inner Mongolia, China. It engages in the coal production, trading, washing, loading, and transportation activities; sale and trading of mineral products; breeding, production, and selling of breeding stock; production and sale of wine and fruit wine; and grape planting activities. In addition, the company is involved in the development and sale of real estate; property management; trading of mineral products engineering construction; and manufacturing, wholesale, and trading of tobacco products. The company was formerly known as Kinetic Mines and Energy Limited. Kinetic Development Group Limited was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Ordos City, China. Kinetic Development Group Limited operates as a subsidiary of King Lok Holdings Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Kinetic Development Group reported revenue of HK$5.3B in FY2025 versus HK$5.6B in FY2021, a compound −1.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$896M in FY2025, compounding −22.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$5.3B
Latest YoY
−6.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−4.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.3%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+48.3%
Revenue −1.3%/yr
FY21 HK$5.6B
FY22 HK$6.2B
FY23 HK$4.7B
FY24 HK$5.7B
FY25 HK$5.3B
Net income −22.4%/yr
FY21 HK$2.5B
FY22 HK$2.7B
FY23 HK$2.1B
FY24 HK$2.1B
FY25 HK$896M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +36.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share +20.9 pp

of which total revenue +20.9 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin +7.6 pp
Tax rate +1.0 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +7.5 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

1277 screens 42% overvalued. Compare with China Shenhua Energy Company →

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Kinetic Development Group · Fair Value
HK$1.19 −42%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kinetic Development Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1277

Peer Group

Thermal Coal · 99 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside −42% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 25% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -11% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.4% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.09× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.3× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.68× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.58× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 2.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 8.2× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 29
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 43 · sector 21
HEALTH 95 · sector 93
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 64

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Coal Oil & gas

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 ¥44.07 ¥34.97 -21%
Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT ₹2,965 ₹891.11 -70%
Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 ¥25.08 ¥23.90 -5%
Yankuang Energy Group 600188 ¥22.09 ¥13.24 -40%
Coal India Limited COALINDIA ₹409.30 ₹464.01 +13%
China Coal Energy Company 601898 ¥13.93 ¥13.91 -0%
Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 ¥26.48 ¥20.72 -22%
Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 ¥16.27 ¥7.20 -56%
PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk, ADRO 2,520 IDR 3,037 IDR +21%
PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk AADI 9,350 IDR 13,935 IDR +49%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Kinetic Development Group (1277) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.19 versus a price of HK$2.05, about −42% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1277?
Our model-based fair value for Kinetic Development Group is HK$1.19 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$2.05.
What is the quality score of 1277?
Kinetic Development Group has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Kinetic Development Group (1277)?
Kinetic Development Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$5.3B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1277?
The net profit margin of Kinetic Development Group is about 16.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 16.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Kinetic Development Group pay a dividend?
Kinetic Development Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.43% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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