Agricultural Bank Of China (1288) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Agricultural Bank Of China HK$12.93, price HK$6.46, upside +100.2%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.72 – HK$6.63 · fair‑value band HK$9.70 – HK$16.16 · the HK$6.46 price screens below the HK$12.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Agricultural Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services. The company operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, Treasury operations, and Others segments.
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Agricultural Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services. The company operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, Treasury operations, and Others segments. The Corporate Banking segment offers corporate loans and advances, trade finance, deposit products, corporate wealth management services, and other corporate intermediary services. The Personal Banking segment provides personal loans, deposit products, card business, and other personal intermediary services. The Treasury Operations segment conducts money market and repurchase transactions, debt instruments investments, precious metals transactions, and derivative transactions. It offers asset and fund management, financial leasing, life insurance, and investment banking services. It also provides inclusive finance, green finance, pension finance, digital and online financial services, and cross-border financial solutions, as well as services for rural revitalization. In addition, it provides demand, personal call, foreign currency call and time, time or demand optional, savings, agreed-term, and negotiated deposit accounts; certificates of deposit; and loans, including housing, consumer, personal auto, business, fixed asset, working capital, real estate, bonds, commercial drafts, entrusted syndicated loans, trade finances, guarantees and commitments, and loans with custody of export rebates accounts. In addition, it offers credit and debit cards, payment and settlement, private banking, cash management, custody, financial market, financial institution services, and trading. Further, it offers agro-related personal and corporate banking products and services; telephone, mobile, self-service, and SMS banking services; asset custodian services; and reinsurance. The company operates domestic and overseas branches, and representative offices. The company was founded in 1951 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Agricultural Bank Of China (1288) currently trades at HK$6.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$12.93, implying the stock looks roughly 50.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$11.85 per share, and 4 of the 4 models we run sit above the HK$6.46 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$6.79, and 0 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$9.70 (bear) to HK$16.16 (bull), the price of HK$6.46 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Agricultural Bank Of China reported revenue of 1.4T CNY in FY2025 versus 556B CNY in FY2021, a compound +25.0%/yr. Reported net income was 291B CNY in FY2025, compounding +4.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$2.4T (≈ $307B) · P/E ratio 5.8 · P/S ratio 1.25 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.7900 · Dividend yield 6.1% · Net margin 21.5% · Return on equity 9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 100%, 1288 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$9.70Fair Value HK$12.93Bull HK$16.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.2985 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+133.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.7% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.7% vs 3.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.56% → 24%
Compare Agricultural Bank Of China with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 43 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside+85.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.2% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)49.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)59.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)6.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.33× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Agricultural Bank Of China Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1288
Frequently asked questions
Is Agricultural Bank Of China (1288) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$12.93 versus a price of HK$6.46, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1288?
Our model-based fair value for Agricultural Bank Of China is HK$12.93 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$6.46.
What is the quality score of 1288?
Agricultural Bank Of China has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Agricultural Bank Of China (1288)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$12.93 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$9.70, optimistic scenario HK$16.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Agricultural Bank Of China stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$12.93, about +100% upside versus a price of HK$6.46 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$9.70, optimistic scenario HK$16.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Agricultural Bank Of China (1288)?
Agricultural Bank Of China reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 601B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Agricultural Bank Of China pay a dividend?
Agricultural Bank Of China currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.12% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Agricultural Bank Of China (1288)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Agricultural Bank Of China it is HK$12.93 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$6.46. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Agricultural Bank Of China stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1288 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$6.46, fair value HK$12.93, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1288?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$6.46); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$12.93). For Agricultural Bank Of China the two are HK$6.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Agricultural Bank Of China worth?
The market values Agricultural Bank Of China at about HK$2.4T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$6.46; our models calculate a fair value of HK$12.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1288?
Our models span a range for Agricultural Bank Of China: cautious scenario HK$9.70, base HK$12.93, optimistic HK$16.16 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$6.46). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1288?
Agricultural Bank Of China trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.8 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$12.93 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 0.6, P/S 3.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 1288?
The PEG ratio of Agricultural Bank Of China is 1.03 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Agricultural Bank Of China (1288)?
Balance-sheet figures for Agricultural Bank Of China (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 9.2%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1288 from its 52-week high?
Agricultural Bank Of China trades at HK$6.46, about 3% below its 52-week high of HK$6.63 and 33% above the low of HK$4.85 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$12.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Agricultural Bank Of China?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank of America Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Agricultural Bank Of China stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$6.46, calculated fair value HK$12.93 (+100%), Quality Score 53/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1288 calculated?
We run Agricultural Bank Of China through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$12.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Agricultural Bank Of China currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Agricultural Bank Of China (1288)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$6.46. Our model-based fair value is HK$12.93, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Agricultural Bank Of China right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$9.70). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Agricultural Bank Of China (1288) come from?
Earnings per share at Agricultural Bank Of China grew +4.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.4 %, EBIT margin −0.1 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Agricultural Bank Of China
How large is the market capitalisation of Agricultural Bank Of China (1288)?
The market capitalisation of Agricultural Bank Of China is HK$2.4T (≈ $307B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Agricultural Bank Of China (1288)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Agricultural Bank Of China is 1.25 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Agricultural Bank Of China (1288)?
Earnings per share at Agricultural Bank Of China are HK$0.7900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Agricultural Bank Of China (1288)?
The dividend yield of Agricultural Bank Of China is 6.1% (payout 50.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Agricultural Bank Of China (1288)?
The net margin of Agricultural Bank Of China is 21.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Agricultural Bank Of China (1288)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Agricultural Bank Of China is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Agricultural Bank Of China (1288)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Agricultural Bank Of China is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Agricultural Bank Of China (1288)?
The operating margin of Agricultural Bank Of China is 59.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Agricultural Bank Of China (1288)?
Revenue at Agricultural Bank Of China is growing +2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +35.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Agricultural Bank Of China (1288)?
Earnings per share at Agricultural Bank Of China are growing +5.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Agricultural Bank Of China (1288) generate?
The free cash flow of Agricultural Bank Of China is 2.1T CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Agricultural Bank Of China (1288) hold?
Agricultural Bank Of China holds more cash than debt, 396B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026