Agricultural Bank Of China (1288) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Agricultural Bank Of China is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
- Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
- Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
- Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes
At a glance
A solid business, trading 51% below our fair value of HK$13.08.
As of Sep 7, 2026, the fair value of Agricultural Bank Of China is HK$13.08 per share against a price of HK$6.38, so the fair value sits 105% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
Fair value as of: Sep 7, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Sep 7, 2026, revised from HK$11.78 to HK$13.08 (+11.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +8.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$9.81). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.72 – HK$6.58 · fair‑value band HK$9.81 – HK$16.35 · the HK$6.38 price screens below the HK$13.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
Analysis
Agricultural Bank Of China (1288) currently trades at HK$6.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$13.08, implying the stock looks roughly 51.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$13.01 per share, and 4 of the 4 models we run sit above the HK$6.38 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$7.46, and 0 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Agricultural Bank Of China generated revenue of HK$601B at a net margin of 49.0%. Revenue grew 2.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$396B. Fundamentals as of Sep 7, 2026
Scenario range: HK$9.81 (bear) to HK$16.35 (bull), the price of HK$6.38 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 105%, 1288 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.2704 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$13.01) versus Asset-Based (HK$7.46). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Agricultural Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services. The company operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, Treasury operations, and Others segments.
Full company description
Agricultural Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services. The company operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, Treasury operations, and Others segments. The Corporate Banking segment offers corporate loans and advances, trade finance, deposit products, corporate wealth management services, and other corporate intermediary services. The Personal Banking segment provides personal loans, deposit products, card business, and other personal intermediary services. The Treasury Operations segment conducts money market and repurchase transactions, debt instruments investments, precious metals transactions, and derivative transactions. It offers asset and fund management, financial leasing, life insurance, and investment banking services. It also provides inclusive finance, green finance, pension finance, digital and online financial services, and cross-border financial solutions, as well as services for rural revitalization. In addition, it provides demand, personal call, foreign currency call and time, time or demand optional, savings, agreed-term, and negotiated deposit accounts; certificates of deposit; and loans, including housing, consumer, personal auto, business, fixed asset, working capital, real estate, bonds, commercial drafts, entrusted syndicated loans, trade finances, guarantees and commitments, and loans with custody of export rebates accounts. In addition, it offers credit and debit cards, payment and settlement, private banking, cash management, custody, financial market, financial institution services, and trading. Further, it offers agro-related personal and corporate banking products and services; telephone, mobile, self-service, and SMS banking services; asset custodian services; and reinsurance. The company operates domestic and overseas branches, and representative offices. The company was founded in 1951 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Agricultural Bank Of China reported revenue of 1.4T CNY in FY2025 versus 556B CNY in FY2021, a compound +25.0%/yr. Reported net income was 291B CNY in FY2025, compounding +4.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.3 % · buybacks/dilution −0.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Banks - Diversified · 48 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Hong Kong Stocks
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 7, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $358.64 | $217.97 | −39% |
| Bank of America Corporation BAC | $62.68 | $50.87 | −19% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.55 | ¥18.21 | +73% |
| Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 | ¥7.86 | ¥14.44 | +84% |
| HSBC Holdings HSBC | $103.14 | $75.89 | −26% |
| Royal Bank of Canada RY | C$283.11 | C$151.80 | −46% |
| Bank of China Limited 601988 | ¥6.14 | ¥11.24 | +83% |
| Wells Fargo & Company WFC | $86.69 | $79.60 | −8% |
| Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG | $22.90 | $20.50 | −10% |
| Citigroup Inc C | $137.72 | $117.65 | −15% |
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