China Maple Leaf Educ Sys Ltd (1317) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$471M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.1505 to HK$0.1415 (−6.0%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −5.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 20% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$0.0954 to HK$0.2131) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1670 – HK$2.18 · fair‑value band HK$0.0954 – HK$0.2131 · the HK$0.1770 price screens above the HK$0.1415 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China Maple Leaf Educ Sys Ltd (1317) currently trades at HK$0.1770, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1415, implying the stock looks roughly 20.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Maple Leaf Educ Sys Ltd generated revenue of HK$1.1B at a net margin of 27.9%. Revenue declined 11.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.3%. Net debt stands at HK$777M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0954 (bear case) to HK$0.2131 (bull case); at HK$0.1770, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at -20%, 1317 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$2.23) versus Growth DCF (HK$0.3800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Maple Leaf Educational Systems Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates bilingual private and preschools in the People's Republic of China, Malaysia, Singapore, and internationally.
Full company description
China Maple Leaf Educational Systems Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates bilingual private and preschools in the People's Republic of China, Malaysia, Singapore, and internationally. The company offers bilingual education services, including A-level and international baccalaureate curriculums to K-12 students under the Maple Leaf, Canadian International School, and Kingsley International School names. Its private schools include high schools, middle schools, elementary schools, preschools, foreign national schools, and summer and winter camps. In addition, the company provides technical support, educational consultancy services, and clothing related services, as well as engages in retail business. Further, the company supplies school uniforms and professional uniforms for various schools, institutions, and corporate customers; sales of educational books; and sales of goods and educational materials, as well as provides catering services for universities, boarding schools, institutions, and corporate canteens. China Maple Leaf Educational Systems Limited was founded in 1994 and is based in Shenzhen, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Maple Leaf Educ Sys Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.2B in FY2025 versus HK$941M in FY2021, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$306M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +6.4 pp · buybacks/dilution −3.2 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
1317 screens 20% overvalued. Compare with New Oriental Education & Technology Group →
Peer Group
Education & Training Services · 149 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Education & Training Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Oriental Education & Technology Group EDUN | 966.48 MXN | 875.84 MXN | -9% |
| TAL Education Group TAL | $11.87 | $15.60 | +31% |
| Laureate Education, Inc LAUR | $36.99 | $41.45 | +12% |
| Physicswallah Limited PWL | ₹123.90 | ₹14.81 | -88% |
| Grand Canyon Education, Inc LOPE | $142.06 | $152.01 | +7% |
| Covista Inc CVSA | $128.22 | $135.45 | +6% |
| Stride, Inc LRN | $78.59 | $139.45 | +77% |
| Universal Technical Institute, Inc UTI | $25.64 | $20.98 | -18% |
| Perdoceo Education Corporation PRDO | $31.24 | $40.65 | +30% |
| Strategic Education, Inc STRA | $79.98 | $105.48 | +32% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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