Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd HK$5.13, price HK$6.84, upside -25.0%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.4018 – HK$17.10 · fair‑value band HK$3.81 – HK$6.60 · the HK$6.84 price screens above the HK$5.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides financial services in Hong Kong. It operates through three segments: Securities Broking, Commodities and Futures Broking, and Bullion Trading.
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Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides financial services in Hong Kong. It operates through three segments: Securities Broking, Commodities and Futures Broking, and Bullion Trading. The company offers broking services in traded securities, commodities, and future contracts; margin and IPO financing services; trading services in traded bullion contracts; leveraged foreign exchange trading services; administrative services; and asset management services. It also engages in the production and broadcast of finance programs. Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Limited was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. As of March 30, 2026, Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Limited operates as a subsidiary of Innovatech Empowerment Company Limited.
Stock analysis
Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428) currently trades at HK$6.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.13, 25.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$10.51 per share, and 2 of the 7 models we run sit above the HK$6.84 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.8600, and 5 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$3.81 (bear) to HK$6.60 (bull), the price of HK$6.84 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.3B in FY2026 versus HK$1.3B in FY2022, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$670M in FY2026, compounding +4.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$11.6B (≈ $1.5B) · P/E ratio 17.5 · P/S ratio 8.80 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1900 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin 50.2% · Return on equity 36.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −25%, 1428 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$3.81Fair Value HK$5.13Bull HK$6.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0958 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.30/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+37.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.5% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.6% vs 9.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.67% → 67%
Compare Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 464 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−25.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)36.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)58.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)61.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.8% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)17.5× · Pricier than median
P/B5.34× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)10.11× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA11.6× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 96
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)96· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1428
Frequently asked questions
Is Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$5.13 versus a price of HK$6.84, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1428?
Our model-based fair value for Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd is HK$5.13 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$6.84.
What is the quality score of 1428?
Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$5.13 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$3.81, optimistic scenario HK$6.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$5.13, about −25% upside versus a price of HK$6.84 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$3.81, optimistic scenario HK$6.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428)?
Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.1B (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.82% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd it is HK$5.13 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of HK$6.84. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 1428 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$6.84, fair value HK$5.13, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1428?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$6.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$5.13). For Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd the two are HK$1.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd worth?
The market values Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd at about HK$11.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is HK$6.84; our models calculate a fair value of HK$5.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1428?
Our models span a range for Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$3.81, base HK$5.13, optimistic HK$6.60 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price HK$6.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1428?
Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.5 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$5.13 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.3, P/S 10.1, EV/EBITDA 11.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 36.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1428 from its 52-week high?
Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd trades at HK$6.84, about 50% below its 52-week high of HK$13.60 and 11% above the low of HK$6.14 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$5.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price HK$6.84, calculated fair value HK$5.13 (−25%), Quality Score 52/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1428 calculated?
We run Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$5.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$6.84. Our model-based fair value is HK$5.13, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$6.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428) come from?
Earnings per share at Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd grew +8.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.7 %, EBIT margin +5.1 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428)?
The market capitalisation of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd is HK$11.6B (≈ $1.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd is 8.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428)?
Earnings per share at Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd are HK$0.1900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428)?
The dividend yield of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd is 4.8% (payout 174%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428)?
The net margin of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd is 50.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd is 36.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd is 10.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428)?
The operating margin of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd is 61.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428)?
Revenue at Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd is growing −3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428)?
Earnings per share at Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd are growing +12.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428) generate?
The free cash flow of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd is −HK$407M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428) carry?
The net debt of Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd is HK$4.4B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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