Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$12.6B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$1.79 to HK$5.13 (+186.6%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −0.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 26% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$3.36 to HK$12.36). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.4018 – HK$17.10 · fair‑value band HK$3.36 – HK$12.36 · the HK$6.93 price screens above the HK$5.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd (1428) currently trades at HK$6.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.13, implying the stock looks roughly 25.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$1.1B at a net margin of 58.4%. Revenue declined 3.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 36.5%. Net debt stands at HK$4.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$3.36 (bear case) to HK$12.36 (bull case); at HK$6.93, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -26%, 1428 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$11.78) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.8600). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides financial services in Hong Kong. It operates through three segments: Securities Broking, Commodities and Futures Broking, and Bullion Trading.
Full company description
Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides financial services in Hong Kong. It operates through three segments: Securities Broking, Commodities and Futures Broking, and Bullion Trading. The company offers broking services in traded securities, commodities, and future contracts; margin and IPO financing services; trading services in traded bullion contracts; leveraged foreign exchange trading services; administrative services; and asset management services. It also engages in the production and broadcast of finance programs. Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Limited was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. As of March 30, 2026, Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Limited operates as a subsidiary of Innovatech Empowerment Company Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.3B in FY2026 versus HK$1.3B in FY2022, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$670M in FY2026, compounding +4.5%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +6.3 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
1428 screens 26% overvalued. Compare with Mirae Asset Securities Co →
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 423 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 | 38,050 KRW | 18,009 KRW | -53% |
| Meritz Financial Group 138040 | 118,600 KRW | 52,717 KRW | -56% |
| Korea Investment Holdings 071050 | 200,500 KRW | 189,335 KRW | -6% |
| NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 | 28,550 KRW | 22,396 KRW | -22% |
| Samsung Securities Co 016360 | 93,100 KRW | 75,573 KRW | -19% |
| Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 | 299,000 KRW | 214,812 KRW | -28% |
| SSI Securities Corporation SSI | 25,300 VND | 17,375 VND | -31% |
| Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA | 313.75 ARS | 294.30 ARS | -6% |
| Daishin Securities Co 003540 | 26,950 KRW | 48,790 KRW | +81% |
| SK Securities Co 001515 | 4,285 KRW | 1,395 KRW | -67% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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