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Guolian Securities Co Ltd (1456) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$22.7B (≈ $2.9B) · ISIN CNE100002003

What is Guolian Securities Co Ltd really worth?

GS Guolian Securities Co Ltd 1456 · HK
PriceHK$3.99
Fair ValueHK$7.84
Upside+96.5%
Quality42/100

Below-average quality, trading 49% below our fair value of HK$7.84.

As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Guolian Securities Co Ltd is HK$7.84 per share against a price of HK$3.99, so the fair value sits 96% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +37.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 24.0% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
!Moderate moat 64/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 16 out of 100

For context

·1.50% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range HK$5.69 – HK$7.84

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 11 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$6.93 to HK$7.84 (+13.1%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −1.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$5.69). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$7.68 HK$2.59 Fair Value HK$7.84 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.59 – HK$7.68 · fair‑value band HK$5.69 – HK$7.84 · the HK$3.99 price screens below the HK$7.84 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Guolian Securities Co Ltd (1456) currently trades at HK$3.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$7.84, implying the stock looks roughly 49.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$11.08 per share, and 11 of the 11 models we run sit above the HK$3.99 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$4.56, and 0 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Guolian Securities Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$8.9B at a net margin of 24.0%. Revenue grew 18.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.1%. Net debt stands at HK$56.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$5.69 (bear case) to HK$7.84 (bull case); at HK$3.99, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 96%, 1456 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.2172 per share, which is 2.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence HK$6.96 HK$6.85 HK$6.06 76
Growth DCF HK$7.87 HK$16.59 HK$34.23 73
Owner Earnings HK$3.68 HK$11.29 HK$27.25 68
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings HK$3.68 HK$11.29 HK$27.25 68
5Y P/E Exit HK$3.26 HK$8.40 HK$15.11 67
10Y P/E Exit HK$4.88 HK$11.08 HK$20.59 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$2.38 HK$16.63 HK$23.34 63
Lynch FV HK$6.63 HK$9.47 HK$12.31 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$3.42 HK$4.56 HK$5.70 63
P/B Multiple HK$4.47 HK$5.96 HK$7.45 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$4.71 HK$6.30 HK$9.41 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$7.87 HK$16.59 HK$34.23 73
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.88 HK$6.56 HK$13.60 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence HK$6.96 HK$6.85 HK$6.06 76

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$11.08) versus Multiples (HK$4.56). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 9.5 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 1.81 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.3784 price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.5
Dividend yield 1.5% payout 15.9%
Net margin 19.0% FY2025
Return on equity 4.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% avg 5y
Operating margin 33.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$8.9B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +18.1% 3y avg +37.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +12.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$3.6B FY2025
Net debt HK$56.7B FY2025 · ≈ 15.8 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 64
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 99
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 26
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 32
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 80
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Brokerage and Wealth Management; Credit Transaction; Investment Banking Operations; Proprietary trading; Asset Management and Investment; and Others segments.

Full company description

Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Brokerage and Wealth Management; Credit Transaction; Investment Banking Operations; Proprietary trading; Asset Management and Investment; and Others segments. The company is engages in providing securities and futures trading and brokering services; investment consulting and asset allocation services; financial leverage for brokerage clients; corporate finance and financial advisory services; portfolio management and maintenance; investment advisory and transaction execution services; and wealth management products. It is also involved in direct investments and funds related business; trading in financial products; securities-backed lending and securities repurchase businesses. The company was formerly known as Guolian Securities Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd. in January 2025. Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Wuxi, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Guolian Securities Co Ltd reported revenue of 10.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +33.1%/yr. Reported net income was 2.0B CNY in FY2025, compounding +21.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$10.3B
Latest YoY
+128.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+37.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+37.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (13Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+23.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+4.1% · in HKD
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+2.6%
Dividend yield1.5%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 5.1% vs 10Y −3.0%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.66.3% (2020) → 35.9% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop92% (2018) · in HKD
Revenue +33.1%/yr
FY21 3.3B CNY
FY22 4.0B CNY
FY23 4.0B CNY
FY24 4.5B CNY
FY25 10.3B CNY
Net income +21.8%/yr
FY21 889M CNY
FY22 767M CNY
FY23 675M CNY
FY24 397M CNY
FY25 2.0B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −7.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +2.7 %

of which total revenue +12.2 % · buybacks/dilution −8.5 %

EBIT margin −4.8 %
Tax rate +1.4 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −6.8 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Guolian Securities Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$7.84 +49%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guolian Securities Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1456.HK

Peer Group

Capital Markets · 455 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 43 · Below median
Fair Value upside −53% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 24% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 33% · Above median
Revenue growth 18% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.5% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.42× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.43× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.56× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 8.4× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 11
FUTURE91 · sector 91
PAST16 · sector 30
HEALTH79 · sector 94
DIVIDEND30 · sector 37

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS $214.77 $138.97 −35%
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $1,034 $756.89 −27%
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $110.16 $66.17 −40%
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $104.26 $30.94 −70%
Macquarie Group MQG A$251.87 A$75.58 −70%
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥27.93 ¥17.68 −37%
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥17.87 ¥18.62 +4%
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥19.42 ¥4.77 −75%
CSC Financial Co 601066 ¥25.78 ¥14.17 −45%
Huatai Securities Co 601688 ¥19.56 ¥19.26 −2%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Guolian Securities Co Ltd (1456) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$7.84 versus a price of HK$3.99, about +96% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1456?
Our model-based fair value for Guolian Securities Co Ltd is HK$7.84 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.99.
What is the quality score of 1456?
Guolian Securities Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guolian Securities Co Ltd (1456)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$7.84 (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$5.69, optimistic scenario HK$7.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guolian Securities Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$7.84, about +96% upside versus a price of HK$3.99 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$5.69, optimistic scenario HK$7.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (1456)?
Guolian Securities Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$8.9B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1456?
The net profit margin of Guolian Securities Co Ltd is about 24.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 24.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Guolian Securities Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Guolian Securities Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.50% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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